As many of you know, I am a milk Tester. 27 years. I have also milked cows off and on for many years before, and during, right up to about 10 yrs ago. Bred relief for Select Sires techs back in the 80's for several years. About 40 years involved in the dairy industry in some way.
Yes, they are tired. They put their whole life into their dairy cattle. Most liked what they did. But the 7 day a week, with NO reasonable compensation from the dairy companies in the past 20 years, has soured most. And I'm sorry, but going to work for UPS or Amazon is NOT going to work for "low pay". They are making more per hour than they ever did, they have weekends off ( or other regularly scheduled days) they are not on call 24/7. They work, get a paycheck, get benefits, paid holidays, sick leave..... every job is different. Yes, most will long for the farm.... but it is the independence, the cows, and the being your own boss that they want.
And why get beef cattle when that market is very "iffy" too? Then they are back to worrying about trying to make hay and working it around another job. My son and I do it. We both work jobs, and try to do that and run 150 to 200 head cow/cf pairs. It's hard; and lately the return has not been great. We don't want to get rich, but to make a living. I am at retirement age, and had planned that "my cows" and resulting calves, would give me some "extra" every month. With current prices, it is barely paying their "yearly cost" so to speak. Caustic B is very good at figuring total cost to keep a cow for the year. We run close to what he figures. Sometimes more. So if it costs at least $550 a year to keep a cow, (1.50/day x 365 days) and you are getting say $1.50 lb for a 500 lb calf ($750.) , you are making $200 per calf per year. Then you have the ones that do better, and the ones that do worse. Half will be heifers on average. They will bring say .15 to .20 less /lb. so you are looking at 1.35 for a 450 lb heifer = $600. That's a $50 per head return. And if the weather sucks, like WAY TOO MUCH rain this year, making hay is a headache, pastures are great but they didn't gain as good as they could have; my thoughts are the grass is too "washy" and just didn't give them the fiber/bulk they needed. So they gain a little less.....
The average price right now for a 2 yr old decent replacement dairy heifer here is $800 to $1000. At the monthly dairy sale you can find them for $600 to $900 all day long. A farmer can't raise a heifer up to 2 yrs, ready to calve, for that. You have $12-1500 easy in a decent springing 2 yr old dairy heifer. Cows are averaging less than $1000 at sales when these farms sell out. Many are bringing little over cull price... $400-$600. For good decent cows. Most of these guys have been trying to exist on milk prices that is less than $16.00 / cwt for over 2-3 years. They cannot do it and service any kind of debt. They are going in the hole. A paid off farm, with no debt load is barely paying their bills at $16/cwt. This past year I saw prices as low as $14.00/cwt. So when they do "give up/ get out" they are left with not enough money to even pay off their existing debt.
I have "20 farms" on the books for testing. Have had more. I test an average of 8 a month now.. They cannot afford it. Even with the benefits of finding the cows that are chronic mastitis subclinical ones, and the records that they all use, they cannot afford an extra 2-300 month for testing. I used to test 90% monthly, a few did every 6 weeks, and a very few did every other. I only have 2 that test nearly every month now. Most all are every other, or every 3 months. Had 3 sell out in 2017 and one this year. Many are getting older. Several said they would be out now if the cows were worth anything.... they believed their cows would give them some "retirement money", with some to possibly buy some beef cattle and they could fool around with them and make a little hay and such. One that sold out a year ago was all registered. Showed cows for probably 30+ years, milked there for nearly 60 years. REAL DECENT productive cattle, not "babied" but good cows. Used to sell bred heifers for 2,000 easy. Got an average of 1300 I think at the sale. If it was this year they wouldn't bring 1000. No one to take it over, and in his mid 70's, it was the best thing. Kept his open heifers and has struggled this year to get them sold as springers for 1100.
The ones still in it do NOT believe that there will be a very big resurgence in the dairy industry anytime soon. And not for any of the smaller farms. The milk companies don't want to pick up at farms that don't ship at least a half tanker at a time. The 70-150 cow herds are paying over 1.00 per cwt just for hauling fees. The milk companies are screaming SURPLUS here; yet they are hauling milk in from MN to meet their contracts..... They are paying the farmers .20/cwt bonus if they ship at least 24,000 lbs, 1/2 tanker; and .40 if they ship over 48,000 which is nearly a tanker full..... yet they are crying SURPLUS???????
There is alot of BS going on in the dairy companies, and there are fewer so there are not that many options for a farmer.....
There is no optimism in the dairy industry here. The support companies are hurting. Equipment sales are WAY DOWN. Vets aren't making near the routine "herd checks" that they were. A cow that you might have done a 'C-section" on, now the farmers are just "shooting" because if she makes it, she isn't worth 300 for cull prices and you will have 2-300 in her for the vet call, if she lives. Cull dairy cow prices are in the 30's on average. Some in the 40's. Baby calves are not worth much. Jersey bull calves might bring $1-$5 each. Holstein bull calves are worth $5 to $40 at very best. Beef cross bull calves might bring $50 to $75.... if a beef farmer is looking for one to graft on a cow that had a dead calf. And those calves will save a beef cow's lactation, and give the farmer a return for her, but those calves will bring about $1.00 lb in most cases... enough to justify keeping the cow and getting her bred back..... but that's all.
I used to make some return on my nurse cows. But if she doesn't raise at least 4 calves minimum now, she isn't paying her way for me. If I didn't like my dairy cows, and be willing to deal with grafting calves on them and just fooling with them.... it's a "hobby" at this point, they aren't worth it. If I figured in my time, I would be better off working a NORMAL 40 hour job and sitting in the house the rest of the time and not dealing with the weather, and all the other aggravations.
That is some of why these guys don't go to beef......
One more thing, the "poor" dairy farmers got out back in the 80's with the buyouts, and the mediocre/ less than savvy managers have been culled out over the years as the dairy industry has tightened down on things like scc counts and such. It costs to put corn in for silage, corn grain is cheap so they are not making back their investment in it. The small operator cannot compete with the big one here in the east.