Family Daries Quitting

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Sadly, this is far too real in my area. There is a 7 mile stretch I drive daily before reaching the highway. Of the farms on that road (not counting others I can see in the distance!) there are 13 dairy barns sitting empty and 3 in use as dairy farms. 4 more old falling down dairy barns on that stretch. Of the 3 in use today, 2 are Amish owned/run, and all are under 100 head. Most that have sold out have done so in the last 18 months. I suspect the one lone non-Amish dairy in the group will quit within the next year....
I can say it is bad, but most will never understand. Many have lost everything. Some got out when the creameries started sending out suicide hotline contact info with the milk checks....it really did happen here. Between poor weather and dairies going out (hay ground is dug up for rental cash crops), it is almost impossible to find hay within 100 miles of me this year. The closest sale barn has taken a hard hit because there is no flow of bottle calves and kill cows coming off the small dairy farms anymore....
Conversely, there are a handful of 1000+ cow dairies within a short drive of me. They SEEM to be the only ones who can make it at dairy "farming" anymore. I have heard that Riverview (of MN, owns WULF cattle) is planning to add 10,000 cows a month to its various barns. They are also buying out the milk plants/creameries....
 
one coming up for auction here.

200 ac.. 2250 stall.. 1600 hd cattle... 3.4million starting bid.
 
This sounds like the county where our beef operation is located. The whole dairy community here is blown to pieces. Amish bought nearly everything in sight, tried their hand at dairy, and now they are struggling. Families that were deeply rooted in dairies, who also raised tobacco, now commute long distances to Cincinnati or Lexington, and so on to find work. They are good people who worked very hard, but things didn't work out. What I don't understand, and I've talked with several former dairy operators about this, why not sell all the dairy cows and take that money reinvest in a high quality commercial or registered herd and use all the skills acquired in dairy to build a huge beef herd? Most dairy people can AI, they know animal nutrition, they can produce good hay, all the things needed in a beef operation, but they seem like deer in headlights when I suggest they switch over to beef. They seem tired, and would rather go work for UPS or Amazon fulfillment centers for low pay, but after a while doing that they yearn to be back on the farm. I've heard a few people around here that swear that dairy will return and it will be better than ever, I don't think time is on their side.
 
It's apparent those dairies that can't make it aren't very business savvy. I would think a dairy would make one heck of a stocker operation. Or bring feeders all the way to slaughter. Building a cow herd is a long time ordeal to get up to speed. Feeders and stockers require less than 12 months all the way to finish.
 
"Beef, it's what's for dinner".....especially in CHINA! Once the p....sng contest is over, China will need to buy our beef in huge quantities. Great time to be in the cattle business, in my opinion.

https://youtu.be/DNibCp-xipk
 
Before retiring a big part of my job was working with dairies. At one point I was working with them in a three county area. There is less than 25% of the dairies there was in 1998 left in business today. Any of the small family dairies left have an organic milk contract. I know one big farming county in Washington where there are more 10,000+ cow dairies than there are dairies milking less than 400. Very few dairies milking less than 200 left in business.
 
As many of you know, I am a milk Tester. 27 years. I have also milked cows off and on for many years before, and during, right up to about 10 yrs ago. Bred relief for Select Sires techs back in the 80's for several years. About 40 years involved in the dairy industry in some way.

Yes, they are tired. They put their whole life into their dairy cattle. Most liked what they did. But the 7 day a week, with NO reasonable compensation from the dairy companies in the past 20 years, has soured most. And I'm sorry, but going to work for UPS or Amazon is NOT going to work for "low pay". They are making more per hour than they ever did, they have weekends off ( or other regularly scheduled days) they are not on call 24/7. They work, get a paycheck, get benefits, paid holidays, sick leave..... every job is different. Yes, most will long for the farm.... but it is the independence, the cows, and the being your own boss that they want.

And why get beef cattle when that market is very "iffy" too? Then they are back to worrying about trying to make hay and working it around another job. My son and I do it. We both work jobs, and try to do that and run 150 to 200 head cow/cf pairs. It's hard; and lately the return has not been great. We don't want to get rich, but to make a living. I am at retirement age, and had planned that "my cows" and resulting calves, would give me some "extra" every month. With current prices, it is barely paying their "yearly cost" so to speak. Caustic B is very good at figuring total cost to keep a cow for the year. We run close to what he figures. Sometimes more. So if it costs at least $550 a year to keep a cow, (1.50/day x 365 days) and you are getting say $1.50 lb for a 500 lb calf ($750.) , you are making $200 per calf per year. Then you have the ones that do better, and the ones that do worse. Half will be heifers on average. They will bring say .15 to .20 less /lb. so you are looking at 1.35 for a 450 lb heifer = $600. That's a $50 per head return. And if the weather sucks, like WAY TOO MUCH rain this year, making hay is a headache, pastures are great but they didn't gain as good as they could have; my thoughts are the grass is too "washy" and just didn't give them the fiber/bulk they needed. So they gain a little less.....

The average price right now for a 2 yr old decent replacement dairy heifer here is $800 to $1000. At the monthly dairy sale you can find them for $600 to $900 all day long. A farmer can't raise a heifer up to 2 yrs, ready to calve, for that. You have $12-1500 easy in a decent springing 2 yr old dairy heifer. Cows are averaging less than $1000 at sales when these farms sell out. Many are bringing little over cull price... $400-$600. For good decent cows. Most of these guys have been trying to exist on milk prices that is less than $16.00 / cwt for over 2-3 years. They cannot do it and service any kind of debt. They are going in the hole. A paid off farm, with no debt load is barely paying their bills at $16/cwt. This past year I saw prices as low as $14.00/cwt. So when they do "give up/ get out" they are left with not enough money to even pay off their existing debt.
I have "20 farms" on the books for testing. Have had more. I test an average of 8 a month now.. They cannot afford it. Even with the benefits of finding the cows that are chronic mastitis subclinical ones, and the records that they all use, they cannot afford an extra 2-300 month for testing. I used to test 90% monthly, a few did every 6 weeks, and a very few did every other. I only have 2 that test nearly every month now. Most all are every other, or every 3 months. Had 3 sell out in 2017 and one this year. Many are getting older. Several said they would be out now if the cows were worth anything.... they believed their cows would give them some "retirement money", with some to possibly buy some beef cattle and they could fool around with them and make a little hay and such. One that sold out a year ago was all registered. Showed cows for probably 30+ years, milked there for nearly 60 years. REAL DECENT productive cattle, not "babied" but good cows. Used to sell bred heifers for 2,000 easy. Got an average of 1300 I think at the sale. If it was this year they wouldn't bring 1000. No one to take it over, and in his mid 70's, it was the best thing. Kept his open heifers and has struggled this year to get them sold as springers for 1100.
The ones still in it do NOT believe that there will be a very big resurgence in the dairy industry anytime soon. And not for any of the smaller farms. The milk companies don't want to pick up at farms that don't ship at least a half tanker at a time. The 70-150 cow herds are paying over 1.00 per cwt just for hauling fees. The milk companies are screaming SURPLUS here; yet they are hauling milk in from MN to meet their contracts..... They are paying the farmers .20/cwt bonus if they ship at least 24,000 lbs, 1/2 tanker; and .40 if they ship over 48,000 which is nearly a tanker full..... yet they are crying SURPLUS???????
There is alot of BS going on in the dairy companies, and there are fewer so there are not that many options for a farmer.....

There is no optimism in the dairy industry here. The support companies are hurting. Equipment sales are WAY DOWN. Vets aren't making near the routine "herd checks" that they were. A cow that you might have done a 'C-section" on, now the farmers are just "shooting" because if she makes it, she isn't worth 300 for cull prices and you will have 2-300 in her for the vet call, if she lives. Cull dairy cow prices are in the 30's on average. Some in the 40's. Baby calves are not worth much. Jersey bull calves might bring $1-$5 each. Holstein bull calves are worth $5 to $40 at very best. Beef cross bull calves might bring $50 to $75.... if a beef farmer is looking for one to graft on a cow that had a dead calf. And those calves will save a beef cow's lactation, and give the farmer a return for her, but those calves will bring about $1.00 lb in most cases... enough to justify keeping the cow and getting her bred back..... but that's all.

I used to make some return on my nurse cows. But if she doesn't raise at least 4 calves minimum now, she isn't paying her way for me. If I didn't like my dairy cows, and be willing to deal with grafting calves on them and just fooling with them.... it's a "hobby" at this point, they aren't worth it. If I figured in my time, I would be better off working a NORMAL 40 hour job and sitting in the house the rest of the time and not dealing with the weather, and all the other aggravations.
That is some of why these guys don't go to beef......

One more thing, the "poor" dairy farmers got out back in the 80's with the buyouts, and the mediocre/ less than savvy managers have been culled out over the years as the dairy industry has tightened down on things like scc counts and such. It costs to put corn in for silage, corn grain is cheap so they are not making back their investment in it. The small operator cannot compete with the big one here in the east.
 
hurleyjd":1vq0jr4h said:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dairy-farming-is-dying-after-40-years-im-done/ar-BBRgtlO?ocid=spartandhp
Click to expand...

Very good article. Very true for the small farmer. And he is right about the "organic" dairies. Used to be the way to go, but they have skewed the rules so that the "big organic farmers" do exactly what he said.....
And put pretty pictures of their "happy cows out on pretty green pastures" on their logos and milk cartons and yogurt containers........
 
Farmerjan great post. They are all not bad managers the numbers they are dealing with simply don't work. When alot sell out there is no equity to reinvest.
 
Thank you for the detailed analysis. Like I said, in our area dairy is finished, and I don't think commuting 3-4 hours a day to work is the answer. We have 2 large, well respected Angus operations within 15 minutes of my farm that probably earn 7 figures gross, year in year out. They certainly have expenses, but they are going strong which leads me to believe they are highly profitable. They aren't closing up shop, they are actually expanding. A 500 head purebred or Registered Angus herd would make money, plain and simple, unless it's mismanaged. 250-300 high quality purebred Angus steers would be easy to sell. Use sexed semen from a bull such as Black Onyx/ ST Genetics and crank those steers up even higher. Where we are, there is TONS of grass and hay, insane amounts of hay. The land is grossly under utilized. We don't need 30-40 acres for a cow/calf, we can raise 2 pairs per acre or more here if you rotational graze them. Yes, beef is "iffy" if you are producing low grade, but if you are raising high marb, high ribeye, and high $B purebred Angus steers you are going to be in a totally different situation. As I have said before if people are "anti-Angus" who cares! Go raise Shorthorns or Hereford, you will get lower prices in my opinion, but you will still be in the "premium" beef market. I'm partial to Angus, because they have the brand name, and as I have said before, people are very brand conscious. People in rural areas need to realize that not everyone in America is hurting. L.A., NYC, and Miami, among other major cities have many people earning $200k plus a year and they want to eat expensive steaks, they eat out a lot, drop $400 on dinner and wine without a care, and average beef is not acceptable to them, they want the best. People will disagree with me, but fly to New York and head over to Peter Luger's steakhouse and you will have an epiphany.
 
It is not just the little guys going under. I saw that there was a complete dispersal auction of a dairy in Idaho last week. They sold over 15,000 head. That isn't a small family farm. I also saw the ad for a weekly dairy sale in Washington. There was two dairies selling off their heifers. That is not a good sign. When that happens the whole farm sale isn't far behind.
 
Changing consumer preferences. I don't think people consume dairy as they once did. When you take a big step back and look at the whole picture, it's been a long time in the works.
 
Upstate NY is the home of the whole greek yogurt craze but small dairies haven't reaped much benefit from it. Many around us have closed, and more every day. Many of the dairy folks do try their hand at a few beefers, but with our long winters and the low beef prices, it's a tough go for anyone with beef too.
The only hope for farmers is to get serious about banding together and fighting this bs. Instead, most look for angles to make a dime off each other, while those further up the food chain are pocketing our dollars.
 
*************":2xssspkr said:
Thank you for the detailed analysis. Like I said, in our area dairy is finished, and I don't think commuting 3-4 hours a day to work is the answer. We have 2 large, well respected Angus operations within 15 minutes of my farm that probably earn 7 figures gross, year in year out. They certainly have expenses, but they are going strong which leads me to believe they are highly profitable. They aren't closing up shop, they are actually expanding. A 500 head purebred or Registered Angus herd would make money, plain and simple, unless it's mismanaged. 250-300 high quality purebred Angus steers would be easy to sell. Use sexed semen from a bull such as Black Onyx/ ST Genetics and crank those steers up even higher. Where we are, there is TONS of grass and hay, insane amounts of hay. The land is grossly under utilized. We don't need 30-40 acres for a cow/calf, we can raise 2 pairs per acre or more here if you rotational graze them. Yes, beef is "iffy" if you are producing low grade, but if you are raising high marb, high ribeye, and high $B purebred Angus steers you are going to be in a totally different situation. As I have said before if people are "anti-Angus" who cares! Go raise Shorthorns or Hereford, you will get lower prices in my opinion, but you will still be in the "premium" beef market. I'm partial to Angus, because they have the brand name, and as I have said before, people are very brand conscious. People in rural areas need to realize that not everyone in America is hurting. L.A., NYC, and Miami, among other major cities have many people earning $200k plus a year and they want to eat expensive steaks, they eat out a lot, drop $400 on dinner and wine without a care, and average beef is not acceptable to them, they want the best. People will disagree with me, but fly to New York and head over to Peter Luger's steakhouse and you will have an epiphany.
Click to expand...


where do you live where you can run 2 pairs per acre? I'm in top quality soil and I can run 2 pair / ac but not with haying as well.
 
In past history there were regulations on dairy to make sure there were an abundant supply of milk in each area. I think they were called federal marketing orders. Also at one time you would have to build a base during a time frame. I think it might have been in the fall and winter months. If you produced over this base in the spring months when cows were producing the most you could sell so much class A which was fluid milk and the rest went to milk for the production oh cheese, ice cream and powdered milk. Been a while but that is kinda of the way I remembered. A farmer could decide to quit and liquidate and the base had value as it could be bought and sold to other farmers. Maybe texasbred can shed some light on this.
 
We used to have Va milk base. Which was separate from the milk base that farmers "built up" with the dairy company they were selling to. Like an extra "insurance" type thing that they would get more for their milk. It was a "guarantee" to get better prices for milk. It sold well and was a farmers "insurance" as they would get the best prices for their milk base milk. Yes, the federal milk marketing orders were in place and it did help to balance out the cost/production of milk. 20-30 years ago, farmers did "build" their milk base in the fall months...most were Aug-Sept-Oct. That's when they wanted the most milk to coincide with kids going back to school... It all changed about 10 years ago, and for a little bit it seemed they wanted more milk in the spring but there were no "base months" like the fall. Now all of a sudden DFA is pushing, and basically requiring farmers to go back to a fall "base" like before. And severely penalizing farmers that "overproduce " outside of that base. They didn't give them enough notice for many to get their breedings "refigured". It's been a real trial for most.
At one time Va milk base could be purchased. There was a set amount available. It was in high demand when a farm was selling out. Got up to over $2.00 and now most cannot barely give it away. Don't know what the future will bring for that. Maybe will be worth something again with going back to "fall base". I had one farm that sold out had milk base in Land-o-Lakes, and he got that sold to another farm that shipped to L-o-L when he sold his cows. That farmer was able to expand and still get the top price for his milk because he had the base.

Maybe you can run 2 c/cf pairs to the acre with rotational grazing. Here the best grass farmers that I talk to, cannot. I go to alot of forage/grass meetings, pasture walks, you name it. 1 c/cf pair to the acre is good, most figure 1 1/2 acres.
Yes there is a market for some of the premium beef. And right now there is an uptick in demand due to the "economy being soo good"....... If these farms have been in beef production for awhile, they have been able to ride the CAB.... The certified Hereford beef was actually the first of it's kind but never got the same exposure, backing or whatever. But CAB isn't really about ANGUS as it will take any black hided animal that meets certain criteria.... have studied some of the rules. It is a branded name used as a marketing tool. VERY BRILLIANT. I am all for ANYTHING that helps to sell beef, but have a hard time accepting that it isn't really "all angus" beef. That's my problem. But when nearly every breed has "gone black" in order to ride that train, there is something wrong.....

Quality sells. I totally agree. There is a place for commercial animals as well as the purebreds. Dairy beef is one of the best marbling there is. Jerseys have consistently hit the top at marbling and tenderness trials. Look at the Wagyu... they look like a black dairy type animal..... yet I like to look at a beef animal that has a good round butt on it.
Unless you can get tied into a feedlot and finishing operation, it is hard to get feed back when you are selling feeders. There are alot of smaller groups getting organized that will "market" your better animals, and get feedback through them. But if you can't get enough of a premium to pay you for your time and input, you are just as well off to just sell at the weekly sale barn. We've done both....And an extra 5 cents per pound will not pay me for an extra $50 input into a calf, plus my time to do it. We are thinking seriously about trying another group next year, just to see if it can add enough value. Especially with our "colored calves".
We buy good registered bulls to use to improve our calves, improve the females we keep as replacements. Cull harder for things like late breed back, etc. But we also need cattle that can work in our environment. And we can not do multiple inputs as most are out on pasture and not easily gotten in when they are on rented places.
Maybe the small cattleman like us are going the way of the small dairies. The beef will all be cookie cutter like the chickens and turkeys and hogs. We are losing our genetic diversity, and will lose some of the traits that have kept some of these breeds viable. Maybe progress, maybe the kiss of death, if there are disasters and these consistently conforming animals cannot deal with other challenges. Time will tell. But the small dairyman will be greatly missed down the road as they were the ones that were "real dairyman". The cows nowadays are normally good for maybe 2 lactations. Bulls are in the bull studs based on their "genomics" but many do not have any good records on their dams anymore. Just because the genomics say they are superior.... until the cows have done it, there is no guarantee.... I want to see production records.... not that they are out of so $ so family so they "ought to be the best"..
 
ddd75":3gtacitq said:
*************":3gtacitq said:
Thank you for the detailed analysis. Like I said, in our area dairy is finished, and I don't think commuting 3-4 hours a day to work is the answer. We have 2 large, well respected Angus operations within 15 minutes of my farm that probably earn 7 figures gross, year in year out. They certainly have expenses, but they are going strong which leads me to believe they are highly profitable. They aren't closing up shop, they are actually expanding. A 500 head purebred or Registered Angus herd would make money, plain and simple, unless it's mismanaged. 250-300 high quality purebred Angus steers would be easy to sell. Use sexed semen from a bull such as Black Onyx/ ST Genetics and crank those steers up even higher. Where we are, there is TONS of grass and hay, insane amounts of hay. The land is grossly under utilized. We don't need 30-40 acres for a cow/calf, we can raise 2 pairs per acre or more here if you rotational graze them. Yes, beef is "iffy" if you are producing low grade, but if you are raising high marb, high ribeye, and high $B purebred Angus steers you are going to be in a totally different situation. As I have said before if people are "anti-Angus" who cares! Go raise Shorthorns or Hereford, you will get lower prices in my opinion, but you will still be in the "premium" beef market. I'm partial to Angus, because they have the brand name, and as I have said before, people are very brand conscious. People in rural areas need to realize that not everyone in America is hurting. L.A., NYC, and Miami, among other major cities have many people earning $200k plus a year and they want to eat expensive steaks, they eat out a lot, drop $400 on dinner and wine without a care, and average beef is not acceptable to them, they want the best. People will disagree with me, but fly to New York and head over to Peter Luger's steakhouse and you will have an epiphany.
Click to expand...


where do you live where you can run 2 pairs per acre? I'm in top quality soil and I can run 2 pair / ac but not with haying as well.
Click to expand...

Kentucky, Bluegrass area. We move cattle onto hay fields after second cutting, We also have dedicated pastures. The massive amount of rain has kept grass coming on strong during spring and summer. When it stops it may be a different story.
 

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