Drought and culling

[auctionboy]

With all of the culling going on in drought areas it is not good for the economics of those herds now, but the southern cow herd has to become alot stronger do to the culling. My question is in five years will these areas cattle be better for it?

 

[Victoria]

I believe so. It is nasty on the people going under and I would never wish droughts, BSE, any of the problems our countries have faced that have reduced the cattle population on anyone but the ones who survive will be stronger and the cattle that will be left will be a great group of cattle. That is assuming these problems will end of course...

 

[backhoeboogie]

There are many who spent years building their herds into what they were, and now they own none at all. On one hand they may start over with better stock but on the other hand cows may not be as reproductive etc.

I think most in this area will only buy what is best for this climate. They'll be looking for a sure thing. That is what I have been doing anyway. Trying to go brangus mostly. Good in this climate and good nickels at the sale barn.

 

[Gate Opener]

Good thinking auctionboy. I think that they are stronger now.

When it comes time to buy back to bring their numbers up I think the pickings are going to be slim around here.(everybody is going to be holding and buying) I would think that we are going to be seeing out of state cattle here at the sale barns that is if the prices will warrant the fuel price and I'm not sure how the quality will be.

Dun, you've been through this before, what did you see happening?

 

[bigbull338]

Good thinking auctionboy. I think that they are stronger now.

When it comes time to buy back to bring their numbers up I think the pickings are going to be slim around here.(everybody is going to be holding and buying) I would think that we are going to be seeing out of state cattle here at the sale barns that is if the prices will warrant the fuel price and I'm not sure how the quality will be.

Dun, you've been through this before, what did you see happening?

with the drought controlling the cattle sell out itll weed out alot of producers.an alot of them wont get back into cows at all due to age.this drought will affect the cattle market for the next 10yrs.it wont be a quick build back like it has in the past.itll be a slow process.the cattle that will be for sale will bring top money.even if they arnt top cows.because people will be buying anything they can get their hands on.

 

[1848]

With all of the culling going on in drought areas it is not good for the economics of those herds now, but the southern cow herd has to become alot stronger do to the culling. My question is in five years will these areas cattle be better for it?

Depends on what the breeders are willing to overlook in the animals they buy in order to build the herds back up! ;-)

The herds that are rebuilt from the corps that remained stand to be better of and see improvement.

 

[dun]

Dun, you've been through this before, what did you see happening?

It's been pretty well summed up already. Some producers will be gone, some will stay smaller and by better quality cattle, some will go for volume and end up with sorry junk, and the other is tha there will be a mixture of the latter 2. Pretty much like it is today. A few producers will do better, a few worse, but the majority will muddle along as they are now.

dun

 

[AngusLimoX]

this drought will affect the cattle market for the next 10yrs.it wont be a quick build back like it has in the past.itll be a slow process.the cattle that will be for sale will bring top money.even if they arnt top cows.because people will be buying anything they can get their hands on.

Our little drought in 2005 is still having an effect and one of the main ones I see is hay prices are not dropping to anyway near pre-drought levels. More than one reason for that though.

What the drought taught me is to keep a year ahead on hay, and that it is hard to replace the good cattle you had to sell.

Drought - the hurt that keeps on hurting.

 

[dun]

Seems like there was a long sevrre drought in TX in the 70's sometime. CB can address how that one affected producers. Since we weren;t affected by that one we never paid much attention to the long term affects.

dun

 

[la4angus]

Seems like there was a long sevrre drought in TX in the 70's sometime. CB can address how that one affected producers. Since we weren;t affected by that one we never paid much attention to the long term affects.

dun

if you are talking about the one in early to mid 70's there were many farmers and ranchers that went under. I think it was in 1976 that for a few weeks I was buying light wt. green hfrs from $12..00 to $17.00 cwt. and steers for $5.00 to $6.00 more. I was buying mostly hfrs. If memory serves me correct I turned a bunch on ryegrass in Nov and took them off in May. Had them contracted for, I think $52.00 on the steers and $48.00 on the hfrs. Those cattle worked OK.

 

[Beef11]

I see people miss the point of average moisture levels. Average does not mean normal it is an average and no more common than highs or lows. For example i'm from an area of about 12-14 inches of moisture on average 6-21 being normal 6 inches is by about all standards a pretty danged severe drought but this is high desert. When figuring out a business plan and a land use protocol don't figure on average moisture every year, allow flexibility to adjust between low and high years easily. Don't count on average rainfalls every year.

 

[Cowdirt]

I see people miss the point of average moisture levels. Average does not mean normal it is an average and no more common than highs or lows. For example i'm from an area of about 12-14 inches of moisture on average 6-21 being normal 6 inches is by about all standards a pretty danged severe drought but this is high desert. When figuring out a business plan and a land use protocol don't figure on average moisture every year, allow flexibility to adjust between low and high years easily. Don't count on average rainfalls every year.

Good point beef11. Looking at averages will burn you. If a person stands with one hand on a block of ice and the other on a hot stove according to average he might be comfortable but we know better.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Seems like there was a long sevrre drought in TX in the 70's sometime. CB can address how that one affected producers. Since we weren;t affected by that one we never paid much attention to the long term affects.

dun

if you are talking about the one in early to mid 70's there were many farmers and ranchers that went under. I think it was in 1976 that for a few weeks I was buying light wt. green hfrs from $12..00 to $17.00 cwt. and steers for $5.00 to $6.00 more. I was buying mostly hfrs. If memory serves me correct I turned a bunch on ryegrass in Nov and took them off in May. Had them contracted for, I think $52.00 on the steers and $48.00 on the hfrs. Those cattle worked OK.

Drought,bangs and the colapse of the S&L's took out a many a rancher in the 70's.

Pretty good article on a different angle for drought management.

http://www.texascattleraisers.org/issue ... /planB.asp

 

[KenB]

Seems like there was a long sevrre drought in TX in the 70's sometime. CB can address how that one affected producers. Since we weren;t affected by that one we never paid much attention to the long term affects.

dun

if you are talking about the one in early to mid 70's there were many farmers and ranchers that went under. I think it was in 1976 that for a few weeks I was buying light wt. green hfrs from $12..00 to $17.00 cwt. and steers for $5.00 to $6.00 more. I was buying mostly hfrs. If memory serves me correct I turned a bunch on ryegrass in Nov and took them off in May. Had them contracted for, I think $52.00 on the steers and $48.00 on the hfrs. Those cattle worked OK.

Drought,bangs and the colapse of the S&L's took out a many a rancher in the 70's.

Pretty good article on a different angle for drought management.

http://www.texascattleraisers.org/issue ... /planB.asp

Thanks for the link Caustic it is an interesting article.