Crystal Ball Price Cycle Question

[Stocker Steve]

The talking heads agree that the packers are making good profits. Great for them.
The talking heads agree that the US cow herd expansion has slowed and stopped. Good for us.
But the talking heads do not agree on when the cow herd will go down enough to move prices. I see small diary pastures being re stocked with beef cows, so our local feeder production is actually going up regardless of prices.

Do you see empty or plowed up pastures in your area, or are other beef producers just picking up aditional acres ?

 

[skyhightree1]

The talking heads agree that the packers are making good profits. Great for them.
The talking heads agree that the US cow herd expansion has slowed and stopped. Good for us.
But the talking heads do not agree on when the cow herd will go down enough to move prices. I see small diary pastures being re stocked with beef cows, so our local feeder production is actually going up regardless of prices.

Do you see empty or plowed up pastures in your area, or are other beef producers just picking up aditional acres ?

There's only a few cattlemen most are selling out. Or keeping literally like a few. Everyone says the same thing it's just not worth it.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I know prices suck in the SE, but in other areas calf prices have been higher than expected, and many are cash flowing.
Older dairymen in our area see beef as "more profitable", so they buy some black cows or rent the pasture so someone else. So not enough pressure to force out actual producers.
An option for non producers with the right kind of woods, is to sell out to deer hunters.

 

[skyhightree1]

I know prices suck in the SE, but in other areas calf prices have been higher than expected, and many are cash flowing.
Older dairymen in our area see beef as "more profitable", so they buy some black cows or rent the pasture so someone else. So not enough pressure to force out actual producers.
An option for non producers with the right kind of woods, is to sell out to deer hunters.

Or run goats

 

[Aaron]

If the forecast holds on the prediction that this coming summer weather is a repeat of 2018, there will be no shortage of producers exiting or shaving numbers. Dairy guys think beef is easy until they realize there is no steady paycheque and markets can be just as volatile.

 

[ddd75]

here all dairy's are either expanding or selling out and going full row crop. I only know 1 who is transitioning to beef.

also a decent amount doing some other things such as growing hops.

 

[shaz]

The dairies here are all going to beef so numbers are up locally. However, you can't look at sale barn traffic and see anything but a decline as far as I can tell. Seems like the Tues sale in Fayettville ends earlier every time. I hauled 11 calves in on Dec18 and it was a ghost town.

 

[CattleMan1920]

The beef industry in the U.S. could thrive but......

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/cptpp-a ... ks-in.html

As long as we are in the process of "Making America Great Again" the pain may become much more acute. It's a highly expensive game of "chicken" using the U.S. beef producer as the pawn.

If you are willing to move your operation to Australia or Brazil, then things might be different.

 

[Stocker Steve]

The beef industry in the U.S. could thrive but......

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/cptpp-a ... ks-in.html

As long as we are in the process of "Making America Great Again" the pain may become much more acute. It's a highly expensive game of "chicken" using the U.S. beef producer as the pawn.

US steel industry is booming. Not so much for ag, which is obviously getting screwed by the trade tantrums.

State just published projected 2019 regional return per acre for crops. Not impressive. I think some folks are living off (the paper expense) of depreciatioin.

 

[CattleMan1920]

This is my opinion, and it will make a lot of people in Kentucky upset, but here goes. Our state pushes the coal narrative like no tomorrow, we have to save the coal mines at any cost. What's troubling however, when agriculture is mentioned, it's like, crickets, "who cares?" Failing dairy operations, soybeans a disaster, beef, pork, and poultry industry in trouble. who cares!, but let's save coal in Kentucky. We have approximately 6000 or so miners, and they are to be applauded for what they do and for risking their lives in the mines, but we have about 77,000 farms! Does anyone care if they fail? It sure doesn't seem that way. However, the political narrative was "let's save the miners", how about "let's save the farmers" I think it's bulls...t that the farmers have been forgotten but then again my opinion probably does not matter.

I recall reading an article not too long ago that investor groups are buying up small Kentucky farms at a pretty good clip. I suppose they will mostly be owned by private equity in 15-20 years, and to think some of those farms have been in the same direct family for 75-100 years or more.

Who is fighting to protect the beef industry in Kentucky and the United States overall? It seems like Brazil, Australia, and India among others are making solid headway against the U.S. beef producer.

 

[JMJ Farms]

It's a culling process. Not pleasant in the slightest. But necessary nonetheless.

 

[littletom]

Not a whole of grass left here, went into grain. CREP land coming out now it's all going into grain none going back in grass. Some really step ground in grain too.