Bad Time to Get In?

[ostie]

I've been a long-time lurker on this forum and have learned a lot from you guys and gals. I've always wanted to own some cattle and am really hoping to make that dream a reality in the next few months, but so many people are telling me now is the wrong time to get in due to the high cattle prices. What are your opinions? I realize prices are very high compared to historic prices, but is there any reason to believe they will be coming down? I read an article a few years ago that discussed the increasing demand for beef due to growing populations and the diminishing number of farmers and producers, so I've just felt this is going to be the way things are (supply vs. demand). Thanks for any advice.

P.S.
Sorry if this has already been discussed. I didn't have any luck with the "Search" button.

 

[dun]

Getting in now vs waiting is one of those "might just as well" kind of deals. For starters buy a couple of good quailty older (6-8) year old bred cows and go from their. But then, I*'ve never been a big fan of waiting till things get better since it view that as time wasting.

 

[Nesikep]

Well, as long as you don't count on cows for your sole source of income for some time, I think you might as well start now as dun said.. but if you had to buy a ranch and stock it with a few hundred and then make payments for 25 years, I don't think I'd do it.

Welcome to CT too

 

[CSM]

I would not be afraid to start now, as long as you use your money and not the bank's.
CSM

 

[AllForage]

Honestly if I was starting today I would not get in. The ROI on today's prices with a new start up just are too high to risk ones financial well being. That includes the stress from wary spouses. When I got in beef cows could be bought bred for 800. I know prices have gone up for calves, but that does not account for growing pains.

Get some hair sheep and maybe grow into cattle one at a time.

Ryan

 

[ohiobeef]

Just as the old saying goes, " what goes up, must come down" , It will happen in a few years, & it will bankrupt some people. :frowns: :bang:

 

[denvermartinfarms]

Do you have the land, equipment, and facilities to be in the business? If so I wouldn't be afraid to get in now. I wouldn't do it with barriers money at these record prices, but to buy some cattle with cash I think it would be fine.

 

[ostie]

Thanks I for your replies! I do have access to the land and most of the equipment. I plan to buy the cows using cash and this will not be my sole income. Mostly a hobby and maybe something that can help save for my children's (ages 5, 3, 2) college. Thanks again for the advice.

 

[Lucky_P]

If you want the hobby, fine.
Don't count on it producing college funds for your kids. If that's your goal, the $$ invested in a good mutual fund account with proven track record is likely a much better investment.

BUT! There is definitely something to be said for teaching kids life lessons about hard work, life & death, where their food comes from, and instilling a work ethic in them, that may be far more valuable than any monetary return you ever get.
That (aside from the mental illness of cattle addiction) was a principal reason we had for raising our kids 'in the country', on a farm.

 

[ostie]

I guess I should clarify that I think it's a good, fun way of saving that has other benefits. I know there are possible investments with higher ROIs, but if the market crashes or the proverbial SHTF, you can't eat mutual funds!

 

[ohiobeef]

I guess I should clarify that I think it's a good, fun way of saving that has other benefits. I know there are possible investments with higher ROIs, but if the market crashes or the proverbial SHTF, you can't eat mutual funds!

That's a great point Ostie ! :lol:

 

[Drzr]

I guess I should clarify that I think it's a good, fun way of saving that has other benefits. I know there are possible investments with higher ROIs, but if the market crashes or the proverbial SHTF, you can't eat mutual funds!

That's a great point Ostie ! :lol:

VERY! Good point!!!

 

[Quickdraw Farm]

While my cousin has been "in" for many years, he recently invested more money in his herd by almost doubling it from 60 Mamas to 117. He purchased 57 purebred (not registered) 3-6 years old in September for $78,500. After attending the auction in Opp, AL on November 19th he finds his investment is now worth $90,700. The $80,000 CD he cashed to buy the Mamas has now earned much more than the three quarters of one percent it was earning. How much he makes or loses on those 57 Mamas is dependent upon several things, all of which are in the future and not for certain. But as of right now it appears as though he made a sound investment. Me, I am a 3rd generation cattle farmer who is pleased, to say the least, with the value of our (yours and mine) current inventory. And I ain't selling no good heifers. If she's nice and her Mama has been nice I keep her. Most people around here have a hard time KEEPING fifteen hundred dollar heifers, I have a hard time SELLING them. And when I see one I like at the sale barn, I buy it. But I may be messing up. We'll know someday for sure. I think this is a good time to get in. If you like cattle you should get some, they should always make you, at least, a little bit. If you don't like them you should not mess with them as they are not a big money quick type of thing. JMHO

 

[BobbyLummus1]

This is best case scenario and has worked for me . I like buying commercial heavy bred young and old cows at the stockyard . If I pay $2200 for a decent 7 month bred 1250 lb cow . She calves and raises a quality calf in 10 months I can sell for $1400 . Then I have $800 minus expenses in this cow and have a decent idea what she's all about . Buy then she will be bred good and I decide whether she goes back to sale or gets a new home. This may be high risk to some but has worked for me . I'm buying almost every week . I have gotten much better at picking the winners over time .

 

[ostie]

Quickdraw, it's funny you mention Opp, AL. That's where I'm from and live. Small world.

 

[M5farm]

Rattlesnake rodeo.

 

[ostie]

LOL! I see you're familiar with Opp too! LOL