Anyone ever tried this?

[Jogeephus]

Buying low and selling high? Can't say I've ever really tried this too much with cattle but I've been doing some figuring and I think I'm fixing to give this a try. Am thinking of dumping over half the herd and keeping some yearling heifers and the best and youngest cows. Have a seasoned cattle guy coming by Thursday to give his unbiased opinion on what should stay and what should go. This will free up half my land which I've made arrangements to lease out at record agricultural rental prices and have entered into a share cropping agreement on all the extra hay land I will not be needing. I've given some thought even of keeping about 40 good heifers and just dumping the lot and taking a short break from things while they mature. This is tempting but I'll probably not go that route.

 

[3waycross]

Sounds like a great idea. Wish I had thought of it. :tiphat: :tiphat: :lol2: :lol2:

 

[Bama]

Thats pretty much what I do. I buy fair calves and try to sell them as good calves. It does take a lot of paying attention to the market and you have to know exactly how much per day it is costing you to keep a cow or calf. You also have to know what you can get for it at the market and if you could replace one you have now with another one that will make you more money per day. I look at it as if I'm not in the cattle business, I'm in the money business. Figuring out where to invest it is the tricky part.

 

[Commercialfarmer]

If taxes are anything like my accountant says they are going to be the next few years, it might be a really good idea. He keeps telling me to make what I can this year.

 

[regolith]

In theory it should work great.
I've thought of doing this. You get an open 2 yr old cow worth five hundred dollars, get her in calf, calve her, milk her, get her back in calf again and sell her for $1500. I could sell my good cows for 1500 and buy a bunch of these and do the same again every year.
Some of my cows came back to me from lease with no value above their cull value, now have full value for no reason other than they now have an accurate expected calving date.

 

[highgrit]

As more people do what your thinking won't the price just keep going up? I don't have any irrigation so trying to farm is out for me.
Now is sure a great time to get out of the cow business, be nice going out on top.

 

[Jogeephus]

As more people do what your thinking won't the price just keep going up?

I think we are good for next few years but I don't think the consumer has seen the effect of these higher prices in the grocery store yet but when they do, I think alternatives, imports, or increased production costs will adjust things quickly. I think taxpayers are strapped for cash and those that have jobs are looking at higher taxes, higher fuel prices and less take home money so I think many will embrace the Hardee's turkey burger. Of course, I never thought anyone could find someone to buy a half pint of water for $1.29 so who knows.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Of course, I never thought anyone could find someone to buy a half pint of water for $1.29 so who knows.

Especially with a Coke on sale for 69 cents. The same volume of water is almost twice as high.

I try to always buy low.

Buying all those lightweight heifers 4 years ago was one of the best moves I have ever made.

 

[TexasBred]

Jogee all this "buying low and selling high" talk is gonna give the rest of us deep depression. Forget it !! :lol:

 

[ALACOWMAN]

i keep thinking the only way im gonna get my herd to improve is by hanging on to em.... genetics aint worked... maybe low numbers will make em shine :cowboy:

 

[JSCATTLE]

Isn't that what you are supposed to do with any thing . Cows , gold , stocks. Etc?

 

[xbred]

You get an open 2 yr old cow worth five hundred dollars,

if you get an open cow 2yr. old for $500...she's $500 for a reason...buy low sell high ain't that easy...

 

[JSCATTLE]

You get an open 2 yr old cow worth five hundred dollars,

if you get an open cow 2yr. old for $500...she's $500 for a reason...buy low sell high ain't that easy...

I thought he meant buy when the market was down and sell out when the price jumps . I agree that a 500 dollar cow right now would have something wrOng with her .

 

[Isomade]

Isn't that what you are supposed to do with any thing . Cows , gold , stocks. Etc?

Supposedly that's what your supposed to do. It just sounds crazy to me when cattle are involved. I feel guilty with these high calf prices right now, I don't want to take advantage of anyone so I'm thinking about holding on to them for a couple years till prices drop. :cowboy:

 

[Anonymous]

That's crazy talk.

 

[ALACOWMAN]

Isn't that what you are supposed to do with any thing . Cows , gold , stocks. Etc?

Supposedly that's what your supposed to do. It just sounds crazy to me when cattle are involved. I feel guilty with these high calf prices right now, I don't want to take advantage of anyone so I'm thinking about holding on to them for a couple years till prices drop. :cowboy:

after suffering trough a few bad years,, naw, no guilty feeling here

 

[Jogeephus]

You get an open 2 yr old cow worth five hundred dollars,

if you get an open cow 2yr. old for $500...she's $500 for a reason...buy low sell high ain't that easy...

I thought he meant buy when the market was down and sell out when the price jumps . I agree that a 500 dollar cow right now would have something wrOng with her .

That's what I meant. I got a good many cows that are worth roughly $0.47/lb but they are fetching over a dollar at the moment. The way I figure it, if I sell now I'll be able to provide a lot of deserving people free cell phones and I'm all about free cell phones but I do hope they can come to some agreement on giving free internet service too.

 

[john250]

Beef will battle gasoline for the consumer $, and there are only so many of them. Gasoline wins, people have to get to work. I think SPAM had its' best sales ever in 2008. It's going to be tough to move higher on beef prices in the meatcase.
The rise in feeder prices made me more prosperous for about 5 minutes. Tires for a ranger are $200. Gas topped $4 here last night. $4.19.
Still, I think cow-calf will probably have a couple more good years. Returns above direct cost. Probably won't cover a lot of overhead.

 

[regolith]

You get an open 2 yr old cow worth five hundred dollars,

if you get an open cow 2yr. old for $500...she's $500 for a reason...buy low sell high ain't that easy...

Yes there's something wrong with her... she's open. An open 2 yr old dairy heifer can be easily got at that price in this country and you can even discount her another fifty if she's skinny. She is (a) a confirmed breeder who was (b) still growing and probably milking her heart out during a three month breeding season and missed the boat.
An in-calf 'holdover' can be discounted probably $300 against a good cow because she's got the stigma of infertility against her. But if she's back in the system having been calved, milked a year, back in calf and you sell her as a rising 5 she's worth top money... and she might've cost you $300 for her year off in addition to her purchase price. If she doesn't get in calf you sell her, fat, two months after the end of the breeding season for a little under her purchase price. This year I've got 10 out of twelve holdovers back in calf.

 

[agmantoo]

It will take too long to get the land back to being a good pasture! Yes the rent income of good land is great now but I would be more concerned with the tenant being able to pay you in a couple of years out. I also have my better land leased but it was leased long before the jump in cattle prices. Being diversified is where it has been and where it will remain. Movie theater concession stands keep both popcorn and peanuts for a reason. What they lose on the peanuts gives them a chance to make it up on the popcorn! Being in the cattle business during good times allows for fixing a lot of foul ups. It is an excellent times to cull for whatever reasons, and there are many. It allows, with a reduced headcount, time to refurbish parts of the pasture that have been needing it. Coming back on stream with a younger herd and with reworked pasture facilities should create an opportunity to go forth more competitively enabling the reduction of inputs and positioning ourselves for a more profitable future as prices cycle downward. Unfortunately, IMO now is probably a good time to go to cash in the stock market unless one has 30 plus years to retirement.