Ag Recession ?

[kenny thomas]

My road is over 5 miles from one intersection to the other end. Not a young farmer here and no one growing up to take over. Lots of grazing land and some flat land just growing up. But they will still ask $3,000 an acre for it.

 

[farmerjan]

Besides the whole debt issue, and what it costs to get into farming, one of the biggest things is that many , maybe not most but dang close to it; young people just don't want to work that hard, 7 days a week, for little to no profit... or even for not very much of a paycheck. It has been discussed on other threads, but if you figure in the cow/calf business, you might make $150 to even $250 a head profit over expenses, on calves; it takes 100 to make even $25,000 for a years worth of HARD WORK. Why do it when you can work a 40-50 hour week for $40 to $75,000 a year with most if not all weekends off, vacations, sick days, 401k's, health ins and such.... Why do you think so many do it as a "hobby"; partially because they can't make it farming like you once could; partially because we like the cows so we keep some. All you have to show for it.... IF YOU ARE SMART AND LUCKY, is a paid off farm, paid for cows that are getting older, and paid for machinery that is getting worn out, and a "paid for body" that has more aches and pains and worn out parts than you ever thought possible.
Even the "specialty niche" farmers find that if they are successful, they have to expand, then there is more labor, land, equipment,.... and they are getting worn out too.
We used to rent and "make for hay" alot of land. But then you get into these landowners that want more and more and then you have to have more equipment to get around to all of it and then you can't get the help you need. We are cutting back and giving some of it up because we cannot justify the costs against what we can get in a return.... with NOT COUNTING OUR TIME. I am 65, my son 45; with the accident he had, and not able to push as hard, plus my joint issues, we cannot keep up what we did even 5 years ago. There are young guys in their 20's and 30's that don't want to get out there and sweat and some aren't working anywhere else.... Let the gov't take care of them or they are on unemployment and don't want to sweat a little for some under the table cash money. The ones that have said they wouldn't mind helping don't get off work until 4 or 5 or 6 in the evening. Hard to make square bales that late in the day.

 

[True Grit Farms]

Besides the whole debt issue, and what it costs to get into farming, one of the biggest things is that many , maybe not most but dang close to it; young people just don't want to work that hard, 7 days a week, for little to no profit... or even for not very much of a paycheck. It has been discussed on other threads, but if you figure in the cow/calf business, you might make $150 to even $250 a head profit over expenses, on calves; it takes 100 to make even $25,000 for a years worth of HARD WORK. Why do it when you can work a 40-50 hour week for $40 to $75,000 a year with most if not all weekends off, vacations, sick days, 401k's, health ins and such.... Why do you think so many do it as a "hobby"; partially because they can't make it farming like you once could; partially because we like the cows so we keep some. All you have to show for it.... IF YOU ARE SMART AND LUCKY, is a paid off farm, paid for cows that are getting older, and paid for machinery that is getting worn out, and a "paid for body" that has more aches and pains and worn out parts than you ever thought possible.
Even the "specialty niche" farmers find that if they are successful, they have to expand, then there is more labor, land, equipment,.... and they are getting worn out too.
We used to rent and "make for hay" alot of land. But then you get into these landowners that want more and more and then you have to have more equipment to get around to all of it and then you can't get the help you need. We are cutting back and giving some of it up because we cannot justify the costs against what we can get in a return.... with NOT COUNTING OUR TIME. I am 65, my son 45; with the accident he had, and not able to push as hard, plus my joint issues, we cannot keep up what we did even 5 years ago. There are young guys in their 20's and 30's that don't want to get out there and sweat and some aren't working anywhere else.... Let the gov't take care of them or they are on unemployment and don't want to sweat a little for some under the table cash money. The ones that have said they wouldn't mind helping don't get off work until 4 or 5 or 6 in the evening. Hard to make square bales that late in the day.

I've never considered cattle or haying hard work, it's like a day off compared to commercial fishing. Cattle are time consuming between doing rotational grazing, feeding hay and making sure the water facilities are working someone needs to check cows every couple of days.

 

[Stocker Steve]

My road is over 5 miles from one intersection to the other end. Not a young farmer here and no one growing up to take over. Lots of grazing land and some flat land just growing up. But they will still ask $3,000 an acre for it.

So who is buying land, and is the price going up?

 

[ddd75]

next year i'll be looking for a new farm. Hopefully $$$money will talk if land isn't as hot.

400 ac farm with multiple barns and a big house going up for auction next to me next month (Estate-Federal Income tax sale). Should go pretty cheap and most of it is prime land. Ten years ago I would have been bidding, but now I am not sure I can make the commitment!

Shoot me a message if anyone is interested. Really nice farm with many buildings.

thats the size i'm looking for, in quality land.

 

[kenny thomas]

My road is over 5 miles from one intersection to the other end. Not a young farmer here and no one growing up to take over. Lots of grazing land and some flat land just growing up. But they will still ask $3,000 an acre for it.

So who is buying land, and is the price going up?

Most is either not selling or selling to city people that don't know farming. They tear out the fences then fuss when they have to spend time bush hogging with their 25hp tractor with a 4ft bush hog.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Their debt is killing them not policy. It was just a matter of time. The weak will get out and the strong will get stronger. That's basic business.

Yes, American style capitalism does promote consolidation, both inside and outside of ag. But there are still policy issues in ag. Our overaching ag policy is cheap food - - not good food. Eating local and natural and organic and grass fed and conservation and soil health and traceability programs are all trying to push back on this.

 

[Redgully]

I've never considered cattle or haying hard work, it's like a day off compared to commercial fishing. Cattle are time consuming between doing rotational grazing, feeding hay and making sure the water facilities are working someone needs to check cows every couple of days.

Cattle farming is still pretty hard work and a big commitment. Commercial fishing is full on I agree. I was a fruit grower for thirty years and that is a bloody hard life. During the season 4am start, in packing shed in afternoon and delivering to markets at night seven days a week. I sometimes shudder when I think back to how hard we did it and we didn't have to use ladders, the old guys had it even worse! I only work dawn to dusk six days a week now as a nursery man and it feels like a holiday.

 

[Redgully]

Their debt is killing them not policy. It was just a matter of time. The weak will get out and the strong will get stronger. That's basic business.

Yes, American style capitalism does promote consolidation, both inside and outside of ag. But there are still policy issues in ag. Our overaching ag policy is cheap food - - not good food. Eating local and natural and organic and grass fed and conservation and soil health and traceability programs are all trying to push back on this.

We've been down that road with fruit growing. Everyone goes on about wanting un waxed traceable apples. So we did it, but in the end people just buy the cheap shiny apples. Here in Australia there is a huge push for Australian grown, but people still buy the cheap imports and wonder why we growers pulled out our orchards. Cash is king. There is people who care but just not enough of them.

 

[Brute 23]

Their debt is killing them not policy. It was just a matter of time. The weak will get out and the strong will get stronger. That's basic business.

Yes, American style capitalism does promote consolidation, both inside and outside of ag. But there are still policy issues in ag. Our overaching ag policy is cheap food - - not good food. Eating local and natural and organic and grass fed and conservation and soil health and traceability programs are all trying to push back on this.

"American style capitalism" :lol: Which style of capitalism doesn't do that?

 

[bball]

Their debt is killing them not policy. It was just a matter of time. The weak will get out and the strong will get stronger. That's basic business.

Yes, American style capitalism does promote consolidation, both inside and outside of ag. But there are still policy issues in ag. Our overaching ag policy is cheap food - - not good food. Eating local and natural and organic and grass fed and conservation and soil health and traceability programs are all trying to push back on this.

We've been down that road with fruit growing. Everyone goes on about wanting un waxed traceable apples. So we did it, but in the end people just buy the cheap shiny apples. Here in Australia there is a huge push for Australian grown, but people still buy the cheap imports and wonder why we growers pulled out our orchards. Cash is king. There is people who care but just not enough of them.

This! I suspect your post holds true with most things. People vote with their pocketbooks; whether, it's food, politicians or entertainment. Fast food found that out a few years back-when they all jumped at adding a high dollar angus burger to the menu. Turns out, people prefer a cheaper Big Mac or Whopper. I mean no one on CT does, but the majority of folks do ;-)

 

[jltrent]

Its all about the dollars and who can keep and control the most. The problem with farmers they don't get or are able to control much of it. We are in an ag recession and in the short run will get worse and a drought will escalate it.

 

[greybeard]

All you have to show for it.... IF YOU ARE SMART AND LUCKY, is a paid off farm, paid for cows that are getting older, and paid for machinery that is getting worn out, and a "paid for body" that has more aches and pains and worn out parts than you ever thought possible.

Which also holds true for hundreds of other professions including but not limited to fishing and farming

 

[jltrent]

All you have to show for it.... IF YOU ARE SMART AND LUCKY, is a paid off farm, paid for cows that are getting older, and paid for machinery that is getting worn out, and a "paid for body" that has more aches and pains and worn out parts than you ever thought possible.

Which also holds true for hundreds of other professions including but not limited to fishing and farming

If you can pay off a farm, cattle, machinery, etc.. farming you will have to grow something that would make Willie Nelson happy.

 

[Caustic Burno]

All you have to show for it.... IF YOU ARE SMART AND LUCKY, is a paid off farm, paid for cows that are getting older, and paid for machinery that is getting worn out, and a "paid for body" that has more aches and pains and worn out parts than you ever thought possible.

Which also holds true for hundreds of other professions including but not limited to fishing and farming

Cept the others you don't have to keep working to hold on to your exemption even after 65.

 

[greybeard]

"If you can pay off a farm, cattle, machinery, etc.. farming you will have to grow something that would make Willie Nelson happy."

That would be bambino betos.

And, 99% of the others don't have an exemption so it's moot.

 

[farmerjan]

True Grit; I am sure commercial fishing is very hard work. I don't think I would have wanted to do it, nor could I have done it, when I was young and stronger/healthier. And if farming is like a day off for you, then that is great. I also suspect you are younger than me and probably many of the posters on CT. I hope for your sake that you don't get the joint issues and pain that I have because there are days that it is a real struggle to get up and get going. And it seemed that it hit me nearly all at once. That is what is so frustrating.

 

[kenny thomas]

True Grit young, hahahahaha. He is older than dirt. And I am a little older than him.

 

[True Grit Farms]

True Grit young, hahahahaha. He is older than dirt. And I am a little older than him.

Only in body Kenny, still young in heart and mind.

 

[Caustic Burno]

True Grit; I am sure commercial fishing is very hard work. I don't think I would have wanted to do it, nor could I have done it, when I was young and stronger/healthier. And if farming is like a day off for you, then that is great. I also suspect you are younger than me and probably many of the posters on CT. I hope for your sake that you don't get the joint issues and pain that I have because there are days that it is a real struggle to get up and get going. And it seemed that it hit me nearly all at once. That is what is so frustrating.

All I can say is thank the good Lord for replacement parts! They are not as good as original equipment that was issued. Sure beats the alternative of a wheel chair.