401K thoughts?

[Travlr]

Maybe Travlr can time the market. For most, its a fools game. Just missing a few of the best days is very harmful to overall returns. Never trust a finacial adviser that practices market timing.

The Perils Of Market Timing: Missing The Best Days In The Market

2022 has been a rough year for investors. Nearly every corner of the market is in the red — stocks, bonds, commodities, and even gold.

www.wesmoss.com

Yup... that's the advice they sell. And it works for most people to buy and hold. But it's not what Warren Buffet is doing.

 

[Caustic Burno]

No one knows what Buffet is doing except Buffet!
I often wonder how much misdirection he puts out.

 

[bird dog]

When was Buffett completely out of the market or for that matter, when was he all in? Never on both as far as I know. He has be known to say he wants investments that he can hold forever. Such as Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo.

Warren Buffett's 11 Longest-Held Stocks | The Motley Fool

These companies have been continuous holdings of Berkshire Hathaway for at least 14 years.

www.fool.com

 

[Travlr]

When was Buffett completely out of the market or for that matter, when was he all in? Never on both as far as I know. He has be known to say he wants investments that he can hold forever. Such as Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo.

Warren Buffett's 11 Longest-Held Stocks | The Motley Fool

These companies have been continuous holdings of Berkshire Hathaway for at least 14 years.

www.fool.com

Buffett doesn't put all of his eggs in one basket... ever. At this point he could influence markets by buying and selling quantity without saying anything at all. His investing is heavily regulated simply because he has the potential to do damage. He still has people working for him that investigate everything from A to Z including value, rumors, and trends and he works everything that can give him an advantage.

 

[TexasRancher]

I see both viewpoints of bird dog and Travlr. Here's the advice I give people.
1. If you know what you are doing and understand corrections/recessions/inflation and the stock market really well, then absolutely pull your money out to safety when you feel it's time and get back in incrementally as it encroaches what or where you believe to the bottom...to earn more money with "your experience".
2. If you have no idea what or who to believe and don't know anything about stock marker corrections/recessions/inflation...which is basically most people under age 50 unless they have a good grasp of past financial history norms...then absolutely "do not time the market" stay put in the market for those singular days of explosive growth.
3. If you really think you know what your doing and multiples of people with more financial experience are telling you something (like they are pulling their money all out of the stock market to safety)....and you want to pull too... but are scared and confused.....then, just do 1/2 of what they are doing. Another-words you should sell 50% of your portfolio and move it to safety- capital preservation (not bonds)...and keep 50% where it is inside the market. After 24 months (good rule of thumb- give it 2 years)...if they or you were wrong...you didn't lose much money with 50% removed and the market went up 10%. But if, they were right and your suspicions were right along with them and the market went down (corrected) 40 to 60%....then WOW....you only lost on 50% of your money and still have 50% of your money to place back in buying up super value stocks.....to completely preserve and then to increase you overall portfolio from that point forward.

For 2023.... I'd like to see the majority of people get active and care about their retirement money...to see and understand the power of being in #3 scenario to preserve wealth (during a correction) and then make some gains faster than the #2 buy and hold not-timing the market. Not everyone can handle being in #1...only Travlr and me.

 

[hurleyjd]

I was surprised that the vanguard VWNEX fund did as well this yer with all that was going on. Returned a little over 10% in capital gains and dividends. It paid out yesterday.

 

[bird dog]

You sure about that Hurley? Looks like it had a loss of 3%

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

 

[Son of Butch]

I hate Vanguard's new web page layout. Use to be able to have all of their funds returns on one page for easy comparison. They allowed choice of layout for 90 days during change over, then discontinued that option. Talked to a Vanguard Rep about it and was told all funds on one page had been discontinued and would not be coming back. New layout only.

 

[hurleyjd]

You sure about that Hurley? Looks like it had a loss of 3%

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

You sure about that Hurley? Looks like it had a loss of 3%

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

I have a little over 300k in the fund. It paid a little over $37000 in dividends and capital gains. That is why I mentioned it. This is part of my pension for my old age gads I am there. Need to start spending it. At east I do not have to worry getting out in the cold weather as I do with the cattle.

 

[u4411clb]

AAPL, V, WMT, DE, WYNN, SAIC have held up for me pretty well this year but there has definitely not been usual end of year Christmas bounce.

Those are Apple, Visa, Walmart, Deere, Wynn and Saic. But please don't listen to me your mileage may vary.

 

[fnfarms1]

I do not watch markets or even understand any of it really. Can't say I really want to, but yes it's important to my long term financial stability. I ended up moving about 1/3 of my L fund to C fund. Little more risk but moderate. New allocations will be C as well.

 

[ClinchValley86]

I have nothing invested. I do not understand the game much at all... but would like to play a little I think.

Saw mention of investopedia. I will check that out.

Any other sources to becoming educated at this game?

 

[shaz]

I have a 3rd of my 401k in individual stocks. Sold a lot of tech when this downturn started and overweighted in medical. BMY, UNH, JNJ. Held up well

 

[Primal Farms NC]

I'd have to agree with the post that warned against trusting random opinions on a forum. Nothing against ranchers (I am one) but I'd encourage you to speak with a professional that watches the markets all day, every day.

My wife and I use Still Waters Wealth Management Group out of Juno, Fl. We live outside of Raleigh, NC but this firm in a Christian-based firm that represents business owners and farmers nationwide.

You can reach Tyler directly at 561-214-4125 and he can advise you on these important legacy decisions. I know that he was in Texas two weeks ago visiting a couple of farmer clients there.

 

[1982vett]

I hate Vanguard's new web page layout. Use to be able to have all of their funds returns on one page for easy comparison. They allowed choice of layout for 90 days during change over, then discontinued that option. Talked to a Vanguard Rep about it and was told all funds on one page had been discontinued and would not be coming back. New layout only.

I hate it too. Made it more difficult to see what a fund is invested in too.

 

[bird dog]

I hate it too. Made it more difficult to see what a fund is invested in too.

Well with over 260 funds, its somewhat difficult to get them all on one page. You can go here and mark the ones you want to compare.

Vanguard Investment Products List

investor.vanguard.com

 

[dcarp]

I've worked for Postal Service for 16ft s, started at 21 yrs old. Invested in my Thrift Savings from the start. I've always invested pretty conservative. Been using L funds because they require little attention. Been watching some different advice columns on investing solely in C and S funds until the last 5ish years. I've got minimum of 9 yrs to go probably closer to 15-19 if my body holds out, it's walking routes around town. 12-15miles a day.
Question is everyone thoughts and experience if you have dealt with 401K investing? I've been getting the matching funds, currently have 120k in there. Have no idea what number I'm shooting for. Although I did borrow 15k from it in the summer to buy my last truck. Don't heckle me for it, I know borrowing from retirement isn't ideal. wife was out of work and didn't need a payment. Needed truck for farm use after mine burnt.

Everyone says we are headed for recession, seems like now would be the time to jump in the volatile funds to catch the rise on the backside. Be like buying cows to sell when they get stupid after the sell off happening. Never a guarantee but good possibility.

I worked at USPS for 40 yrs, wife 36. We both contributed the max to the Thrift when it became available. Options were smaller then. My advice would be to put 30% in the G fund, interest rates are rising, and you can never lose, except for inflation, in this fund. The rest be as aggressive as your tolerance for risk allows you. Bear in mind the average return for the S & P 500(C fund) for the last 50 years is 10.33%.
As you get closer to retirement move more to the G fund to ensure no losses.
Good luck going forward, USPS is now a difficult place to work. Keep your head down and push forward. I have been retired for 14 years now, wife 6 years, and have enjoyed every minute. We have a small cow-calf operation and a custom baling business. Our place is fairly small but it is paid for. We lease about 55 acres of hay ground, in addition to what we have. Sell the production from the lease ground as our hay field provides all we can use. We are not "rich" but comfortable and can do whatever we want to.

 

[Marie]

I don't have access to the Gov't funds...but I pretty much do 75% Total Stock Market, 20% of the International World fund, and 5% of bonds.

I keep it simple. I get no match, but I try to save as much as I can, and if you qualify max out a Roth for after-tax opportunities. Given my time horizon might be different, the stock market is on sale. We are heading into a recession, so I'm limiting any big purchases (under $500) and ensuring my emergency fund is accurate (8x monthly expenses).

 

[fnfarms1]

I worked at USPS for 40 yrs, wife 36. We both contributed the max to the Thrift when it became available. Options were smaller then. My advice would be to put 30% in the G fund, interest rates are rising, and you can never lose, except for inflation, in this fund. The rest be as aggressive as your tolerance for risk allows you. Bear in mind the average return for the S & P 500(C fund) for the last 50 years is 10.33%.
As you get closer to retirement move more to the G fund to ensure no losses.
Good luck going forward, USPS is now a difficult place to work. Keep your head down and push forward. I have been retired for 14 years now, wife 6 years, and have enjoyed every minute. We have a small cow-calf operation and a custom baling business. Our place is fairly small but it is paid for. We lease about 55 acres of hay ground, in addition to what we have. Sell the production from the lease ground as our hay field provides all we can use. We are not "rich" but comfortable and can do whatever we want to.

That's my basic goal to. We have 80 acres and doubt I grow much over that unless the right parcel of land were to come up.
As for USPS, yeah it's changed in my 16yrs. Ours is small office and goes fairly smooth. Biggest issue seems to be the new hires have that entitled mentality. Unfortunately that is society as a whole I think. New guys don't think seniority is fair etc. several are veterans who use that to threaten lawsuits etc because someone with seniority gets what they want. I'm the first to respect veterans but have alittle respect for the guys with seniority been doing this more years than you.

 

[backhoeboogie]

I have never lost on real estate. Rental income is good. I have done well in the markets and not so well at times. Tangible gold is not doing anything for me but I am not losing anything with it either. I like having tubes of Francs just for a SHTF scenario. Interest income is not keeping up with inflation.

It is spread around. Mostly I have been blessed.