Where is the high end.

[kenny thomas]

August 2011 feeder futures were 124 today. Anyone want to guess where the high end futures price will stop?

Add to that where would they be if corn were $3 and soybeans were $8?

 

[john250]

Where will the boxed beef go? Exports are darned good. The domestic market depends on some spending.
And since you specify feeders, feed costs. GM and Ford sued the 15% ethanol mandate and they have some good points. A verdict, of course, is months or years away. A win could take corn back a few pennies.

 

[Angus Cowman]

I read a report from an Economist on the subject of beef prices he said that one reason for higher prices is the decline of the exchange rate of the American dollar
don't know if this is true or just BS but it does make sense since our dollar is closer to a flat exchange rate in countries where the economy is still strong so their currency buys more American product in return drives our prices up

 

[kenny thomas]

So if things with the economy get better here, the dollar gets stronger, the cattle pirces will go down?

 

[john250]

We are at a very low point in beef production. The cow calf folks are at the start of the process, and it is going to take some 1.50 prices for a 700 wt to spur any expansion of numbers on this farm.
That isn't a prediction...more of a statement. I wish I had a better crystal ball.

 

[kenny thomas]

John, what I am seeing here is the older cattlemen (me included) are not going to keep any heifers at these high prices.

 

[3waycross]

Where will the boxed beef go? Exports are darned good. The domestic market depends on some spending.
And since you specify feeders, feed costs. GM and Ford sued the 15% ethanol mandate and they have some good points. A verdict, of course, is months or years away. A win could take corn back a few pennies.

I cannot tell you where it will go but this is where it is at the wholesale level.

Choice Ribeyes 3/14.5/down Angus 7.29
....................ups same thing 7.27
Choice Striploins 6/13#avg Angus 5.01 my sell price to Joe Blow's Steak House

I could go forever with this but this is the premium program guaranteed 21 days of age and extra trimmed. The generic boxed beef programs are cheaper but not much.

With boxed beef you definately get what you pay for.

 

[john250]

So if things with the economy get better here, the dollar gets stronger, the cattle pirces will go down?

The value of the $ is important and the factors which influence $ value are unpredictable. If I read the reports correctly, we are selling very well to Korea and Japan and China is coming in soon. All strong economies to whom the dollar is cheap.
If exports were to go down in $ value, for whatever reason, cattle would probably get cheaper.
My preference would be a recovery in spending for "business entertainment". The demand from Ruth Criss is real profitable demand. I think it is easier to add $200 for a prime loin than to add $200 per carcass from hamburger.
I'm not in the sales dept of any meatpacker--just offering a halfway informed opinion. Dangerous.

 

[3waycross]

I do not work for a meat packer. I work for the largest foodservice company in the Country. I only offered those prices for information. Those are the prices a chain like Ruth Cris would pay. Maybe a little more, since they have some buying power. Figure about a 12% add on for yield and that gives you an idea what your steak cost at wholesale and how much profit they make.

For what it is worth most restuarants will look to get 4x the cost of the protien or 3x the cost of the whole plate and that is a MINIMUM standard. The premium joints do better than that.

I have a white tablecloth restuarant that sells a 6oz baseball cut Angus top sirloin for $26.95 with a salad,bread and a side of homemade pasta. Their cost, ready to grill is $2.99 each.........and they sell a lot of them because of their concept, location and overall quality of food served. Keep in mind that this is a top choice steak aged to perfection and cooked to perfection with a sauce on it that would make the Angels weep.

Ya gets what ya pay for.

 

[john250]

Ya gets what ya pay for.

A-men.

 

[larryshoat]

Analyst, economist, market advisers, all have a set of charts and reasons when it's going up, they'll have a different set of charts and different reasons when it goes down. CBOT and CME seems to be a popular place right now for the big money people to play, when they decide to take their ball and go home it will go the other way.

Larry

 

[jedstivers]

So if things with the economy get better here, the dollar gets stronger, the cattle pirces will go down?

A strong dollar kills us on the crop side, a weak dollar spurs exports. That's what I know, this is what I think. A better economy here might help beef demand here with more people with more money.

 

[kenny thomas]

Larry, this is what worries me. These people may be driving the prices up without ever owning any cattle. As said what if they want to play with oil or gas or something else.

 

[larryshoat]

Larry, this is what worries me. These people may be driving the prices up without ever owning any cattle. As said what if they want to play with oil or gas or something else.

As farmers we have to ask, how much of this is real and how much is play money. One thing we know is that we'll be the last to get the information. You can watch market reaction to news and see that somebody has the information a half a day before we do.

This grain, land prices, low interest rates looks like the seventies all over again, but I could be wrong, I am just about everyday :lol2: .

Larry

 

[1982vett]

Larry, this is what worries me. These people may be driving the prices up without ever owning any cattle. As said what if they want to play with oil or gas or something else.

Already done that $8 oil in the 90s and $140 oil a couple years ago.

 

[Dixieangus]

My thoughts are that it will continue to increase but the consumer is only going to pay so much fir a steak so it will level out. When I don't know but I do know that when I sell calves in the spring it's going to be hard for me to pay and replace them if they are even moreexpensive than right Noe.....just my two cents

 

[MO_cows]

Record Stockman says the nation's cowherd is at he lowest level since 1963. If normal supply and demand stays in effect, prices should stay good for awhile. The status of the dollar hopefully makes it too expensive to import beef.

 

[Kingfisher]

Record Stockman says the nation's cowherd is at he lowest level since 1963. If normal supply and demand stays in effect, prices should stay good for awhile. The status of the dollar hopefully makes it too expensive to import beef.

Where would the import beef come from if it did?

 

[TexasBred]

Larry, this is what worries me. These people may be driving the prices up without ever owning any cattle. As said what if they want to play with oil or gas or something else.

KT they already are if you're talking day traders, aka, speculators. And it takes very little "cash" on their part to operate.

 

[kenny thomas]

124.725 today. Looks like the end is not here yet. :banana: