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Dave

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I looked at the futures just now and feeder cattle were up the limit. Fat cattle were the limit or close to it too. So what are the shiny shoe traders boys up to? You know they play with enough money to influence the board. Are they buying in hard enough to get the board to trend up so they can recoup some of their losses? The one thing I have always hated about the futures boards is that a bunch of traders who don't know which end of a cow stands up first can effect the price of live cattle. Somehow I doubt this run up on the board has anything to do with the price of real cattle.
 
Some think cattle have bottomed out. Or maybe just hoping ...
 
Two buyers I talked to yesterday said it should be near the bottom on good cattle. He said I can still sell good cattle. About then a brindle steer was running through the ring he said, "nobody wants to turn a brindle steer out on wheat". The bottom end sure brought bottom prices.

Both buyers also expressed their opinions on bulls versus steers. Probably 15 or so good 550 bulls were ran through. 2 rounds of shots and weaned 60 days. Both couldn't believe that somebody would run them through a chute and leave them bulls. One buyer said the guy left $0.20/lb easily on the table.

An individual buyer I talked to last week said he had 3 or 4 pots sold but they kept moving their pickup date back. This had happened a couple of times and he was starting to get a bit nervous. He still said there and bought enough Holsteins to finish out two loads though.
 
Dave":pfh5scdj said:
I looked at the futures just now and feeder cattle were up the limit. Fat cattle were the limit or close to it too. So what are the shiny shoe traders boys up to? You know they play with enough money to influence the board. Are they buying in hard enough to get the board to trend up so they can recoup some of their losses? The one thing I have always hated about the futures boards is that a bunch of traders who don't know which end of a cow stands up first can effect the price of live cattle. Somehow I doubt this run up on the board has anything to do with the price of real cattle.

Supply and demand. Deteriorating pasture conditions, too many heavy cattle in the system, and that loud hissing sound of the China bubble deflating. Heck Dave, you got a front row seat to watch all the money corrupt Chinese govt officials stole to buy mansions in Vancouver and Seattle.

Buddy of mine bought 20 Simangus bred heifers for $1600/each last week...
 
JWBrahman":1q89bswp said:
Dave":1q89bswp said:
I looked at the futures just now and feeder cattle were up the limit. Fat cattle were the limit or close to it too. So what are the shiny shoe traders boys up to? You know they play with enough money to influence the board. Are they buying in hard enough to get the board to trend up so they can recoup some of their losses? The one thing I have always hated about the futures boards is that a bunch of traders who don't know which end of a cow stands up first can effect the price of live cattle. Somehow I doubt this run up on the board has anything to do with the price of real cattle.

Supply and demand. Deteriorating pasture conditions, too many heavy cattle in the system, and that loud hissing sound of the China bubble deflating. Heck Dave, you got a front row seat to watch all the money corrupt Chinese govt officials stole to buy mansions in Vancouver and Seattle.

Buddy of mine bought 20 Simangus bred heifers for $1600/each last week...

I certainly understand a lot of what kicked the legs out from under the market. I was just questioning why the sudden turn around on the futures market. Because what the shiny shoe boys do on the CME and what real cattle do are not necessarily connected.

As to a front row seat to what happens in Seattle. I only drive through on the freeway once every four or five years. And I can't remember the last time I actually got off the freeway in Seattle. It is against my religion to go anywhere near Seattle.
 
The feeder price has stabilized around $1.80. The traders had convinced themselves South American beef was going to push it lower. A bunch of corruption scandals in Brazil knocked the float out of that boat. SA beef is lower quality at higher prices when you add up corruption costs.

That's my take on the 10 cent swing on CME in one week.
 
Hate to be the contrarian but check out the drought monitor, which has a lot more bearing on reality than CME. East Texas can flood the market with fats in the next few months if it doesn't rain.

We can only count on South American beef being lower quality for maybe another decade. They have the same genetics as the USA, just not as widespread.

It would help prices A LOT if we could begin exporting beef to Russia this winter. Russians LOVE high marbled "Chicago Style" prime beef.
 
JWBrahman":1ew7r861 said:
A bunch of corruption scandals in Brazil knocked the float out of that boat. SA beef is lower quality at higher prices when you add up corruption costs.

I thought corruption was a constant. How does it suddenly change the price of beef?
 
Dave":1r490l7i said:
So what are the shiny shoe traders boys up to? You know they play with enough money to influence the board.

The US and the Chinese governments both try to prop up the stock market. Seems like a losers game to me.

The shiny shoe boys hire computer geeks wearing sandals to code buy/sell electronic trading programs that make money off of stock market volatility. I think CME is similar.
 
we bought a lot of cattle to go on feed in the last 10 days and turned right around and got put options under them at levels that ensure a profit in the 7-10% range (that's 15-20% annualized) and still have all the upside potential. fear has irrationaly pushed down real prices in many instances and created good opportunities to buy a profit. this is a welcome opportunity if one has had to absorb some red ink on portions of inventory that may have been unprotected. things went way down very quickly, money was lost, cattle lost value, including cattle owned by us. some of those cattle were marketed in windows where they lost money. in a couple instances of poor market management, they lost a lot of money per head. i have found though in this business, there is no shortage of producers that are so "doom and gloom" they seem to get get something very gratifying out of being a self-fulfilling prophecy and fall all over themselves to puke up their cattle irrationally once the market turns upside down. this confuses me, the romance of the lost cause is lost on me. I'm not saying hold on to inventory and ride it down to zero, many cattle needed to be sold and many lost money. what i am saying though is that the board has been over sold and is being used as leverage to beat the real price of feeders to where they can be bought to make money more consistently than when they were $30/cwt. higher. this isn't magic, calculators are $8.99 at the drug store.
 
JWBrahman":qtbltduc said:
Hate to be the contrarian but check out the drought monitor, which has a lot more bearing on reality than CME. East Texas can flood the market with fats in the next few months if it doesn't rain.

We can only count on South American beef being lower quality for maybe another decade. They have the same genetics as the USA, just not as widespread.

It would help prices A LOT if we could begin exporting beef to Russia this winter. Russians LOVE high marbled "Chicago Style" prime beef.

Russia isn't going to be buying any beef while oil prices are down and thus their currency.. and I have a sneaking suspicion that it's deliberate.
 
Stocker Steve":huwkjq3l said:
JWBrahman":huwkjq3l said:
A bunch of corruption scandals in Brazil knocked the float out of that boat. SA beef is lower quality at higher prices when you add up corruption costs.

I thought corruption was a constant. How does it suddenly change the price of beef?

CME is like the stock market, it fluctuates with news stories about current events.
 
Nesikep":djp3pkyl said:
Russia isn't going to be buying any beef while oil prices are down and thus their currency.. and I have a sneaking suspicion that it's deliberate.

Well, they are definitely not buying our beef since we have a ban on beef exports to Russia.

If the govt announced beef exports to resume tomorrow the CME price would go up.
 
js1234":1w89vvl5 said:
we bought a lot of cattle to go on feed in the last 10 days and turned right around and got put options under them at levels that ensure a profit in the 7-10% range (that's 15-20% annualized) and still have all the upside potential. fear has irrationaly pushed down real prices in many instances and created good opportunities to buy a profit. this is a welcome opportunity if one has had to absorb some red ink on portions of inventory that may have been unprotected. things went way down very quickly, money was lost, cattle lost value, including cattle owned by us. some of those cattle were marketed in windows where they lost money. in a couple instances of poor market management, they lost a lot of money per head. i have found though in this business, there is no shortage of producers that are so "doom and gloom" they seem to get get something very gratifying out of being a self-fulfilling prophecy and fall all over themselves to puke up their cattle irrationally once the market turns upside down. this confuses me, the romance of the lost cause is lost on me. I'm not saying hold on to inventory and ride it down to zero, many cattle needed to be sold and many lost money. what i am saying though is that the board has been over sold and is being used as leverage to beat the real price of feeders to where they can be bought to make money more consistently than when they were $30/cwt. higher. this isn't magic, calculators are $8.99 at the drug store.

Good post.
The only thing worse than new thinking, is new thinking that turns a profit. That really pisses off the neighbors.
I am selling shares and buying stock. I bought all my calves again this week (by not selling them), and added a few new ones on Monday.
 

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