Using Simple Formulas to Locate Bulls -- Polled Hereford

[HerefordSire]

From another recent thread:


Brandonm2 wrote:
"peak performance"??? There is no maximum level of performance in those indecis. Frank is a young bull. Star Benny and bull #1 (R413) are both young bulls. It is almost certain that those EPDs and indecis will CHANGE in the next three years. Most PERFECT young numbers bulls develop a FLAW when the progeny start rolling in. Historically birth weight is the dissapointing number. Other bulls that looked like growth freaks turned out to be quite mediocre as growth sires. Others that looked like moderate framed bulls have daughters that top the 1700 pound mark. While numbers usually get weaker over time, it is also quite possible that any of the three bulls may IMPROVE their indecis. The bar is always rising. It is more likely that a bull that starts close to peak performance is going to be the one that breaks through the top 1% and sets the new standard; but every time you mix up the chromasomes anything can happen. My point being that sire's performance is not all that indicative of progeny's performance. There are many examples of a sire's best son far exceeding his own EPDs and examples of a sire's strength becoming a son's weakness. You are over analyzing the data. If a bull has performance, pedigree, and EPDs go ahead and use him and find out what he will really do.


Brandon...I knew many people would have trouble with my words concerning this topic......there is an old saying in the investment business and in my words, the profit is made on the purchase not on the sale. To magnify things in the cattle business, a principal bull purchase is spread amongst the herd which makes the above statement even more true. On top of that, we are thinking purebred which cost additional cash. It would be easy to commit to most any bull irregardless of the EPDs as long as one believes they can get close to the mark. I believe the bull selection is more important than experts publish and most people believe. As long as I buy the right bull, is doesn't matter how I get there. If I cross multiply a sire's sire with the summation of profit indices and compare to a different sire's sire, or take todays date and divide by PI to determine the birth date of the bull so I could make sure the difference of days landed on a Fibinacci multiple, or even a Square-of-Nine time number, then so be it. :)

What happens if I buy the wrong bull(s)?

The main point I am ultimately making is to arrive at method to return search results so an undervalued bull can be located to increase return on invesment over time.

 

[Brandonm2]

I am probably a little too old fashioned for this business; BUT I like to actually see the progeny. If a fancy set of heifers, a top young herd sire prospect, or a broody, stylish young cow REALLY catches my eye....THEN I ask who is that one's daddy? THEN I look up that sire and look at the EPDs. If I am real ho-hum about the daughters that I see, I don't care if the bull is the trait leader for everything. I have to see animals that I like THEN I have to see EPDs and performance numbers that I like before I actually spent any money. The whole industry owes a huge debt of gratitide to those folks that buy semen from 11-26 month old bulls; because if everybody thought like me a bull would be about 5 before we looked at him seriously as an AI sire.

 

[HerefordSire]

From a previous thread:

DOC HARRIS wrote:
HerefordSire-

I have read your comments concerning my remarks relating to the 'adding together' the $Values, and then using the totals as selection constituents.

You mentioned that it appeared to you that I devoted extra thought in authoring my text. You are correct. When I decided to contribute to the CattleToday Forum(s), I did so with ONE primary purpose in mind: to be as helpful to sincere, concientious Beef Cattle enthusiasts as I could be with my limited ability to do so. I have attempted to do that during the time that I have been participating in these discussions.

I understand that with a Media, such as the Internet, which enables anyone to say almost anything, whether it is cognizant or not relating to the subject at hand, it should be imperative for contributors to be as factual, valid and verifiable as possible when writing statements which may be contoversial in nature. I try to do my best to be as accurate as I can when expressing opinions. Sometimes I am successful. At other times . . . . .

Of course, when being humorous, or sarcastic for the sake of a bit of levity, or a joke, THAT should ALSO be obvious in the writing. I have been known to attempt a bit of jocularity, waggishness or buffoonery on occasion on a few of these pages, but I try to make it very obvious that I am kidding at the time. Ruthie (my dear wife of 63 years) informs me too often that ". . . .THAT is NOT funny!", - - but I think she is not serious!

The various methods which are used by breeders in the selection of seedstock are as diverse as the breeders themselves. They can incorporate Coin Flips, Pin The Tail On The Donkey, Lottery, and even the use of a Ouija Board! Or - they can choose to use methods which have been studied, investigated and improved upon by people involved with the Beef Industry - Cattlemen, Breeders, Universities, Geneticists, Producers, Cattle Associations, Herd Improvement Records Programs - all those involved in the above group I am sure attempt to be as factual, valid and verifiable as possible. Nothing in this business, or ANY business is always perfect, or works as one might wish.

Now - we arrive at the crux of the matter - as to WHY the divergent methods and skills of seedstock selection are used in the first place. The obvious answer would seem to be for a Beef Producer to be able to achieve his desired results in both Genetype and Phenotype - for whatever reason(s) he deems optimal for his purposes in his operation.

. . . . . and HERE comes the obstacle or 'fly-in-the-ointment' in the formula: each breeder or producer - Registered or Commercial - has his or her own criteria of what they are seeking in their own operation. They may be similar or even congruent with those criteria of OTHER producers, but the methods of ACHIEVING those goals may be completely different from each other! In addition to that, their concepts of desirability of traits and characteristics in beef cattle could be in opposition to current day dictates and requisites - - - - or what SOME cattlemen CONSIDER the current day standards. To compound all of this, we have the enigma of multiple breeds and their unique characteristics and traits to confuse the issue!

Case in Point: the on-going and current discussions concerning "Cow Size" and the relativity therein pertaining to "PROFIT", which you referred to in your thread as a common denominator. Interestingly enough, the $PROFIT Value factor, which Lee Leachman has been incorporating in his genetic enumerations and evaluations (having been determined by the combined efforts of several Dr.s and Breeders, and in conjunction with the Centre for Genetic Improvement in Livestock (CGIL) at the University of Guelph in Canada) is an EPD index that utilizes all of the other EPD's available to predict the profitability of a bull. It boils all of the numbers down to ONE number that helps you with bull selection. As you might imagine, it is a complicated procedure to ascertain, and is not germain to this discussion.

HerefordSire- your thought processes certainly are in line with the thinking of many successful breeders today, and I commend you for your efforts in improving your Herd genetics!

Any Cattle Breeder who is genuinely sincere about producing the BEST beef cattle possible recognizes the absolute necessity of making the maximum use of combining Phenotype and Genotype (EPD's) - whether that producer BELIEVES in the concept - - or not!

It would be interesting to compare your Profit Index Summations Rankings with Leachman's $PROFIT EPD Index on the same Bulls! I am sure that Lee would be happy to discuss this concept with you - you might BOTH benefit from the exchange of ideas!

My perception of the adding together of the $Values for selection purposes has not changed, and perhaps that is why you sensed a little doubt in my original text. At this time, I am not planning to incorporate that technic into my "Selection Protocols".

DOC HARRIS


Doc... Thanks again!

As an example, of the fall AHA EPDs, this time I retrieved all the YW over 91 (this left Frank out) and I summed the profit indices and sorted them in descending order (largest is last). If you notice, there are some names I would not have excepected. For example, let us take the third largest which is 109 since the other two larger are horned and view this bull by himself...here is his link:

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 2B3C2B3C3A

Just the numbers...what does he look like, and would you have normally considered this bull for purchase or for semen? I know I would not have considered him.



KCF BENNETT 3008 N267 (P42430103)  4.7 1.6 54 97 21 48 4.4 1.6 -0.001 -0.07 0.22 $27 $21 $23 $29 $100
BP FAVOURITE 18C (42057343)  -2.6 9.4 53 92 -18 9 3.2 1.5 -0.012 0.06 0.04 $31 $16 $31 $24 $102
RRH MR FELT 3008 (P23703420)  5 1.7 55 103 25 53 6.9 1.6 -0.014 -0.03 0.25 $27 $22 $22 $32 $103
MOHICAN MINT 19M (P42262119)  0.5 4.3 58 91 13 42 5.4 1.7 0.043 0.62 0.21 $30 $19 $27 $29 $105
KCF BENNETT 3008 M326 (P42361822)  2 3.3 59 103 20 50 3 1.9 0.002 0 0.29 $30 $19 $26 $32 $107
HUTH PROPSECTOR N065 (P42409394)  2.4 4.6 54 102 23 50 3.3 2.1 0.001 0.21 0.19 $30 $20 $27 $30 $107
KT 122L ONLINE 3074 (P42372347)  0.4 2.8 61 109 15 46 4.8 2.3 0.004 0.31 0.03 $32 $19 $29 $29 $109
BF L1 REGULATOR 4Z (42057178)  -3.7 9.1 59 107 -17 12 0.9 1.8 -0.009 -0.02 0.16 $33 $15 $33 $29 $110
SNS GENERATOR 28X (19034306)  1.4 6.1 54 101 6 33 4.2 2.4 -0.014 0.09 -0.01 $34 $20 $33 $25 $112

 

[HerefordSire]

Doc...try this link instead:

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 526&9=5050

 

[HerefordSire]

I am probably a little too old fashioned for this business; BUT I like to actually see the progeny. If a fancy set of heifers, a top young herd sire prospect, or a broody, stylish young cow REALLY catches my eye....THEN I ask who is that one's daddy? THEN I look up that sire and look at the EPDs. If I am real ho-hum about the daughters that I see, I don't care if the bull is the trait leader for everything. I have to see animals that I like THEN I have to see EPDs and performance numbers that I like before I actually spent any money. The whole industry owes a huge debt of gratitide to those folks that buy semen from 11-26 month old bulls; because if everybody thought like me a bull would be about 5 before we looked at him seriously as an AI sire.

I like old fashion and I like your style. You are a touchy feely breeder huh? Ain't nothing wrong with that. Doesn't that limit you by wanting to view before searching? For example, I can search the world's EPDs and then view a couple (fly, drive, float) relative to viewing the world's Herefords and then inpect the EPDs on a computer.

 

[oakcreekfarms]

I am not sure that most people give so much emphasis to the indexes. Half of those bulls shouldn't be used for other reasons.

I think the indexes can be good indicators when used in collaboration with other epds, not alone. Just my opinion.

 

[HerefordSire]

I think regardless of the direction a breeder is going one needs to concentrate on the REA and IMF, and other components dealing with carcass merit. Herefords were segregated from the market for years due to the public perception that Herefords lacked the carcass quality to competitively draw bidders. Hereford breeders have taken a lot of strides to change our cattle, and are now working on market perception.

It is my belief that we, in the Hereford business, need to manage BW's however not put so much validity to the numbers that we start to chase the fad of the angus. I don't think that we need to constantly try to produce cattle with big spread EPD's. Our breeds greatest strengths are efficiency, fertility, meat tenderness, docility, and maternal ability (and not necessarily in that order). There are a lot of things that the Herefords do well, however I believe that these are what the herefords are best at. Big growth isn't, and probably never will be, the main reason for running hereford bulls. So we have to concentrate on why commercial buyers buy our bulls, for replacements to be used as cows and efficient stocker calves.

With that said I would look at a good growth spread something like BW 3 WW 40 YW 80 MM20 REA 30 IMF .05. I would say that is a good start anyways.

oakcreekfarms...no animals fit your exact criteria. However, I retrieved one result by stretching the max accordingly and used your numbers as minimums:

BW 3-5
WW 40-50
YW 80-85
MM 20-25
REA .30 - .35
IMF .05 to .06

Here he is:

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 1&9=535C5F

Now what? Adjust your parameters until I get five or so?

 

[oakcreekfarms]

I guess that was my mean numbers. If I was searching I would search for bulls that were lower then 5 on BW and a min of ww39 yw70 mm17 rea.3 imf0 and I would like the indexes to be above 12 across. Maybe that puts it into perspective.

 

[HerefordSire]

Here is another example of using arbitrary formulas to locate a bull. The bottom most bulls are the largest and the most preferred according to this formula:

= YW > 91 and (YW/BW) + CED + CEM + (20 * REA) + (200 * IMF)

According to the formula, this bull would be the one to consider to purchase or buy semen:

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... E7E6E5E51D


KCF BENNETT 440 P486 (P42570152)  68.25
KCF BENNETT 1030 R160 (P42573527)  69.57
SHF REM NUCLEUS 122L N32 (P42417921)  69.90
HUTH PROPSECTOR N065 (P42409394)  70.07
SHF REM NORTHERN 122L N11 (P42417918)  70.50
SHF REM NOTEWORTHY 122L N28 (P42417920)  70.50
HUTH PS PROSPECTOR M015 (P42314089)  72.15
DR WORLD CLASS 517 10H (P41000194)  73.87
BEHM 3N RAIDER 519R (P42639687)  75.20
FELTONS MENTOR 477 (P42223156)  75.24
MGM PROSPECT LINE 9R (P42578572)  75.71
SHF REM NOVELIST 122L N39 (P42417923)  76.50
FELTONS OLAF 414 (P42223202)  78.68
RH 106 MENTOR 477 N65 (P42435847)  79.08
SHF REM NEWSCASTER 122L N34 (P42417922)  79.27
MOHICAN MINT 19M (P42262119)  81.46
LW 36N LEGACY 52R (P42576113)  81.98
KCF BENNETT M326 R163 (P42573557)  82.72
RH H119 FELTONS 477 P13 (P42489157)  86.01
DM BR SOONER (P42537322)  89.00
KCF BENNETT 3008 M326 (P42361822)  94.21
HUTH PROSPECTOR K085 (P42122873)  101.15
KCF BENNETT 3008 N267 (P42430103)  112.33
KCF BENNETT 774 P306 (P42570167)  116.73
RRH MR FELT 3008 (P23703420)  121.89
HUTH 2D PROSPECTOR N059 (P42409342)  128.07
OF EQUAL 36K 576R (P42637292)  130.53
HUTH 17Y PROSPECTOR M053 (P42314007)  132.20
KCF BENNETT 9126J P18 (P42530680)  137.08
UPH PROSPECTOR P152 (P42533172)  176.20
TRM DDF 9268 FUTURE FELT 3086 (P42443332)  224.70

 

[oakcreekfarms]

However you want to look at it is fine, I wouldn't use math like that to choose future herd sires.

 

[HerefordSire]

However you want to look at it is fine, I wouldn't use math like that to choose future herd sires.

That is exactly my point! :)

Maybe you would have never considered that bull because you didn't know he was alive yet he scores twice as high as M326, which by the way, those are some fine looking specimens you have from M326. 3008 offspring as hard to beat in growth and BW, CED, ......that was what I was trying to tell you all along by watching the 3008s of mine.

 

[oakcreekfarms]

Thanks for the comment on the calves

I would agree with the growth and BW deal, however they are usually easily beatable with phenotype, muscle shape, top, and rears.

That is what, in my opinion, make m326 so special. He puts all those together with a 3008 pedigree

 

[HerefordSire]

Thanks for the comment on the calves

I would agree with the growth and BW deal, however they are usually easily beatable with phenotype, muscle shape, top, and rears.

That is what, in my opinion, make m326 so special. He puts all those together with a 3008 pedigree

Mr. Soules also told me 3008s are known to be inconsistant (heresay). Regardless, I am focusing on growth, fast growth, then once I get that, to the beauty so I can make a beutiful beast. :shock: