Using Simple Formulas to Locate Bulls -- Polled Hereford

[HerefordSire]

The following mental exercise uses some elementary additive math calcs to locate numercial strengths and weaknesses prior to viewing and purchasing polled Hereford breeding stock. I will keep this initial example simple.

Let us say I was looking for a young bull to purchase (or purchase semen from) for the purpose of breeding progeny and then selling semen internationally from ONE of the sons. For this exercise, I want to breed a frame 6 male with an REA of over 60, a BW of under 3.0, a WW over 60, and a YW of over 120. So where do I start? There is no manual or book I can go by, so I have to dream my own plan up.

The first thing that would run through my mind for this exercise would be to determine the ratio of YW / BW. Since the Remitall bulls have some of the highest yearling and REA values, I would start there. Remitall Online 122L's ratio would be 117 / 4.9 = 23.88.

The above value would be a number that temporarily records the growth of one animal relative to the birth weight of the same animal. A higher number would represent an EPD with yearling growth relative to birth weight. Since in this example I am interested in EPDs with high growth and large rib-eyes with a light birth weights, I continue to operate on the above ratio with REA and in 122L's case would be 23.88 / .66 = 36.18. This number may show me the first year growth relative to size of an expensive meat item, in other words, may provide insight on a larger return on investment.

 

[Frankie]

The following mental exercise uses some elementary additive math calcs to locate numercial strengths and weaknesses prior to viewing and purchasing polled Hereford breeding stock. I will keep this initial example simple.

Let us say I was looking for a young bull to purchase (or purchase semen from) for the purpose of breeding progeny and then selling semen internationally from ONE of the sons. For this exercise, I want to breed a frame 6 male with an REA of over 60, a BW of under 3.0, a WW over 60, and a YW of over 120. So where do I start? There is no manual or book I can go by, so I have to dream my own plan up.

The first thing that would run through my mind for this exercise would be to determine the ratio of YW / BW. Since the Remitall bulls have some of the highest yearling and REA values, I would start there. Remitall Online 122L's ratio would be 117 / 4.9 = 23.88.

The above value would be a number that temporarily records the growth of one animal relative to the birth weight of the same animal. A higher number would represent an EPD with yearling growth relative to birth weight. Since in this example I am interested in EPDs with high growth and large rib-eyes with a light birth weights, I continue to operate on the above ratio with REA and in 122L's case would be 23.88 / .66 = 36.18. This number may show me the first year growth relative to size of an expensive meat item, in other words, may provide insight on a larger return on investment.

The Angus online sire summary allows you to input the EPDs you want and search for sires that meet them.

Surely the Hereford one has something similar?

http://www.angussiresearch.com/se_epd_search.cfm

 

[oakcreekfarms]

So does the AHA. Go to the hereford.org and click on epd inquiry. There you can put in your min and max epd range and it will pull up bulls that qualify.

You also should be looking up these bulls ratio numbers. Like P606, once used in more herds his ratios dropped exponentially.

 

[HerefordSire]

So does the AHA. Go to the hereford.org and click on epd inquiry. There you can put in your min and max epd range and it will pull up bulls that qualify.

You also should be looking up these bulls ratio numbers. Like P606, once used in more herds his ratios dropped exponentially.

For example, let us take a simple ratio like WW / BW (try to enter this one in the AHA database):

Huth 2D Prospector shows up if you take the YW / BW = 59.375.

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 5&9=5F5250

On the other hand, World Class shows up as YW / BW = 49.44


http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 2&9=5F5259

Therefore, if this was part of your search criteria (YW / BW), which one of the two would you select to breed your cattle to and how would you enter your search criteria at the AHA?


By the way, both animals have larger retuned values than Online 122L.

 

[Brandonm2]

Math doesn't explain everything. Online WINS shows!! The jury is out on whether or not he and his progeny will have an impact on commercial Herefords; but if you want your kid to look good and win that county Hereford Show, he is THE bull.

 

[oakcreekfarms]

I was talking about the ratios on the performance pedigree. Like this
http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 5A59272E22

That should tell you that he is barely under 100% with his progeny. This usually shows how much you can predict a bulls epds will change.

 

[Aero]

some serious flaws in the basic YW-BW-RE ratios, but it's entertaining. might want to make your decisions with real science - EPDs (if you are going to go by numbers). how about scrotal and milk? what does it tell me if i divide the milk EPD with scrotal? about the same thing as when you divide YW by BW.

 

[redfornow]

some serious flaws in the basic YW-BW-RE ratios, but it's entertaining. might want to make your decisions with real science - EPDs (if you are going to go by numbers). how about scrotal and milk? what does it tell me if i divide the milk EPD with scrotal? about the same thing as when you divide YW by BW.

Aero,

Dont know if you were trying to be funny but you gave me a good chuckle none the less.
good point,

MD

 

[HerefordSire]

Math doesn't explain everything. Online WINS shows!! The jury is out on whether or not he and his progeny will have an impact on commercial Herefords; but if you want your kid to look good and win that county Hereford Show, he is THE bull.

I agree with you. This is why I transferred 16 Online x 3008 daughter embryos into recipients not too long ago. However, if we think Online 122L should show up as the end result of search criteria, one could manipulate the formula where he shows up on top, and then locate all the other bulls that are close to his ranking. This is exactly how neural networks work (mimic the brain to find patterns that are non-linear). If I know the end result, then I can create (start from the end and back up) a formula to locate not so obvious animals which are similar to Online 122L in order to capture profit. Keep in mind in my first message at the top....

...locate numercial strengths and weaknesses prior to viewing and purchasing polled Hereford breeding stock...

 

[HerefordSire]

I was talking about the ratios on the performance pedigree. Like this
http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 5A59272E22

That should tell you that he is barely under 100% with his progeny. This usually shows how much you can predict a bulls epds will change.

I know what you were referring to and the ratios would be good to incorporate into a formula. I think my idea is to locate bulls and bull semen that are good values and have a good chance of appreciating over time by finding patterns that are not obvious.

For example...in the AHA database, which bull has the largest WW and the most fertile (SC) with a WW ratio of over 120%?

...Or, which bull has the highest CE to BW ratio?

 

[HerefordSire]

some serious flaws in the basic YW-BW-RE ratios, but it's entertaining. might want to make your decisions with real science - EPDs (if you are going to go by numbers). how about scrotal and milk? what does it tell me if i divide the milk EPD with scrotal? about the same thing as when you divide YW by BW.

Yes, I agree and it can be fine tuned when we find one. For example, when BW is below zero, the numbers get thrown out of whack. An adjustment could be made to compensate for this condition.

To answer your question jokingly, the largest number would be a bull disguised as a dam because the SC would be a very small number. :) I am glad you are being entertained. Now maybe the entertaining can make you a $100,000. Let's see how much you are entertained when your banker calls you all the time wanting to push a loan at 38 year low interest rates.

To play along with you, and you ask what does Milk / SC tell you? Think about it for a second. Hopefully this would not be your only parameters, but if these categories excited you for some strange hidden reason....

As an example, this one is returning 20 / .4 = 50.0 which is a relatively high number.

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 6&9=5F5259

 

[Aero]

are you some bored spammer?

do you really think any of that is useful?

 

[HerefordSire]

are you some bored spammer?

do you really think any of that is useful?

No I am not a spammer. Why? Are you a bored spammer READER? :D

Yes, I think it is very useful. Obviously you do not and you think your techique if far superior. Therefore, please decribe your preferred method of bull locating and selection.

 

[Aero]

Therefore, please decribe your preferred method of bull locating and selection.

• 1. Locate breeders with a pristine reputation you can find who shares many philosophies with you.
  2. Define the endpoint for the calves a bull will produce.
  3. Match endpoint with overall type of animals for sale.
  4. Check EPDs to weed out bulls who will hinder the attainment of your clearly defined goals.
  5. if AI, ensure very high Accuracy (.90+) for vital traits.
  6. Research all ancestors thoroughly.
  7. talk to as many producers who have calves out of the same bull or family.
  8. Dont pay a fortune for the bull/semen.
  9. Expect average calves.

 

[HerefordSire]

Therefore, please decribe your preferred method of bull locating and selection.

• 1. Locate breeders with a pristine reputation you can find who shares many philosophies with you.
  2. Define the endpoint for the calves a bull will produce.
  3. Match endpoint with overall type of animals for sale.
  4. Check EPDs to weed out bulls who will hinder the attainment of your clearly defined goals.
  5. if AI, ensure very high Accuracy (.90+) for vital traits.
  6. Research all ancestors thoroughly.
  7. talk to as many producers who have calves out of the same bull or family.
  8. Dont pay a fortune for the bull/semen.
  9. Expect average calves.

Excellent reply and thank-you.

As an example without getting too personal,

(1) I personally know honest Harry, reputable Rick, and truth-telling Tom, all of which are breeders.

(2) My end point is the Cattle Range web site for all future calves.

(3) I want to breed BWF calves with the bull a polled hereford

(4) ??????????

Please define your number four above.

 

[Brandonm2]

However, if we think Online 122L should show up as the end result of search criteria, one could manipulate the formula where he shows up on top, and then locate all the other bulls that are close to his ranking. This is exactly how neural networks work (mimic the brain to find patterns that are non-linear). If I know the end result, then I can create (start from the end and back up) a formula to locate not so obvious animals which are similar to Online 122L in order to capture profit. Keep in mind in my first message at the top....

...locate numercial strengths and weaknesses prior to viewing and purchasing polled Hereford breeding stock...

Your neural network is better than mine if you can remember a bull's EPDs or actual performance data 5 minutes after reading them. I just remember things like "birth weight EPD high", his actual birth weight was in the 90s, or "weak carcass numbers" or "not growthy" "too framy" or "I didn't like THAT bull's rear leg set", 'coarse shoulders', or "that bull got his picture taken at Denver". I have read them 50 times but could not quote Felton's Legend 242 EPDs with a gun to my head and $2 million at stake dittoe that with 517, 774, Mohican Tradition, Thor, 15G, Vindicator, or Enforcer 107H. If I want to know an EPD I look it up. I also don't need to remember EPDs at a sale because they will give them to me in the catalog. If I do look them up, I will also click on the link to see how they rank versus with 2005 calves. Strengths and weaknesses become real apparent with that bar chart.

 

[Aero]

Please define your number four above.

if you are selling by the pound, below average growth and superlow BW EPDs would be avoided along with way below average frame (YH). if you want your buyer to be happy, ensure the carcass traits are above average.

if you are selling replacement females, avoid ultra low milk, big growth/high mature weight, big frame (YH), bad calving ease, superlow scrotal.

do i need to go on?

 

[HerefordSire]

However, if we think Online 122L should show up as the end result of search criteria, one could manipulate the formula where he shows up on top, and then locate all the other bulls that are close to his ranking. This is exactly how neural networks work (mimic the brain to find patterns that are non-linear). If I know the end result, then I can create (start from the end and back up) a formula to locate not so obvious animals which are similar to Online 122L in order to capture profit. Keep in mind in my first message at the top....

...locate numercial strengths and weaknesses prior to viewing and purchasing polled Hereford breeding stock...

Your neural network is better than mine if you can remember a bull's EPDs or actual performance data 5 minutes after reading them. I just remember things like "birth weight EPD high", his actual birth weight was in the 90s, or "weak carcass numbers" or "not growthy" "too framy" or "I didn't like THAT bull's rear leg set", 'coarse shoulders', or "that bull got his picture taken at Denver". I have read them 50 times but could not quote Felton's Legend 242 EPDs with a gun to my head and $2 million at stake dittoe that with 517, 774, Mohican Tradition, Thor, 15G, Vindicator, or Enforcer 107H. If I want to know an EPD I look it up. I also don't need to remember EPDs at a sale because they will give them to me in the catalog. If I do look them up, I will also click on the link to see how they rank versus with 2005 calves. Strengths and weaknesses become real apparent with that bar chart.

Soon as I get some time, I will show you a real life example how specific jewels will show up using specialized search criteria that will not normally show up when performing a normal EPD search using mins and maxes. First, I would like to take a couple of steps to reach common ground. The formula used really does not matter as much as the results. Once the search results appear powerful and reasonable, we can pin the formula down, and we can name the formula and theoretically apply the formula against other data in other time frames. Soon, I hope to show you the power of what I see and how to use it in real life.

 

[HerefordSire]

Please define your number four above.

if you are selling by the pound, below average growth and superlow BW EPDs would be avoided along with way below average frame (YH). if you want your buyer to be happy, ensure the carcass traits are above average.

if you are selling replacement females, avoid ultra low milk, big growth/high mature weight, big frame (YH), bad calving ease, superlow scrotal.

do i need to go on?

Yes, I need a little more definition if you don't mind. Let us say I will sell the black castrated males by the pound and the black females as replacements. Now I am at the AHA web site ready to enter search criteria. What shall I enter and what shall I do with the results?

By the way I will try to abide by your instructions and I will show you the top five return results so you can give me further instructions.

 

[oakcreekfarms]

I think regardless of the direction a breeder is going one needs to concentrate on the REA and IMF, and other components dealing with carcass merit. Herefords were segregated from the market for years due to the public perception that Herefords lacked the carcass quality to competitively draw bidders. Hereford breeders have taken a lot of strides to change our cattle, and are now working on market perception.

It is my belief that we, in the Hereford business, need to manage BW's however not put so much validity to the numbers that we start to chase the fad of the angus. I don't think that we need to constantly try to produce cattle with big spread EPD's. Our breeds greatest strengths are efficiency, fertility, meat tenderness, docility, and maternal ability (and not necessarily in that order). There are a lot of things that the Herefords do well, however I believe that these are what the herefords are best at. Big growth isn't, and probably never will be, the main reason for running hereford bulls. So we have to concentrate on why commercial buyers buy our bulls, for replacements to be used as cows and efficient stocker calves.

With that said I would look at a good growth spread something like BW 3 WW 40 YW 80 MM20 REA 30 IMF .05. I would say that is a good start anyways.