Unreasonable Expectations

[Supa Dexta]

That's hard to read when its within my quote, But I know where you were coming from. The 2.70 on only the 900 extra lbs would be profit over and above the poorer bull. I was just tacking in an example of realistic numbers, The operating expense remains the same regardless of which bull is standing there.

- 30 lbs is doable
- 30 cows to a bull is doable
- real world price on the 2.70 as of sept/14
- acceptable price expectations the next couple of yrs, although I hope it doesnt drop that much

And it adds up to being able to afford a better bull, or atleast understanding where it can pay off over the calf crop. 30 lbs is a bucket of water that you wouldn't even notice looking at a calf, but some bulls will put it on them no problem.

I avoid bankers.

 

[highgrit]

A 30 lb. gain is very unlikely per calf unless your dreaming. And I don't believe it's possible myself with the examples you used. The difference between a 3k bull and a 6k bull is minimal at best.

 

[Nesikep]

I said it in another thread,.. the proof of a bull is in his grandkids, so I'm not overly concerned about his weaning weight, because in his direct offspring, I don't think it shows THAT much. However, if the daughters are better built, better milkers, and fertile and productive for a longer life, that's where the money is to be made

 

[3waycross]

A 30 lb. gain is very unlikely per calf unless your dreaming. And I don't believe it's possible myself with the examples you used. The difference between a 3k bull and a 6k bull is minimal at best.

I don't know what others are taking from this but I believe it more a case of the difference between a sold by the pound cutting bull and a $3000 bull that has some decent epd's and a good start in life.........of course I could be wrong.

 

[highgrit]

30 lbs to every calf on 30 calves is 900 lbs more a year, I avg'd near 2.70 between my steers and heifers last fall, so that's $2430 in one year. Say you only get 3 years out of the bull, which is on the lower side, and take into account last year was a good year and may not hold. So Ill allow 2k this year, and 1500 next year - which I think is fair. Thats $5930. So thats almost 6 grand over the short life of that bull in extra income.

So say I bought a 3k bull and had no gain, or a 6k bull and acheived the 30 lb gain I'd still be 3 grand ahead. That 3k ahead would allow me to keep a few of the heifers and made good replacements each year and still broke even at the end of 3 years over the poorer doing bull.

Here's the post I was referring to.

 

[Son of Butch]

30 lbs to every calf on 30 calves is 900 lbs more a year, I avg'd near 2.70 between my steers and heifers last fall, so that's $2430 in one year. Say you only get 3 years out of the bull, which is on the lower side, and take into account last year was a good year and may not hold. So Ill allow 2k this year, and 1500 next year - which I think is fair. Thats $5930. So thats almost 6 grand over the short life of that bull in extra income.

Say I bought a 3k bull and had no gain, or a 6k bull and achieved the 30 lb gain I'd still be 3 grand ahead.

The real money to be made is finding that good bull, for a low price.

Maybe but....Probably not.
To wean an extra 30 lbs per calf by only improving the bull means your current bull would have to be in the bottom 25% of the breed [+42 lbs ww] and the new bull would have to be in the top 2% [+72 lbs ww] 72 - 42 = 30 lbs
Top 2% $W = $64 Bottom 25% $W = $30
$34 x 30 calves = $1020 added per year IF the new bull is 73% better than the old.
BUT only 1 in 50 are in the top 2% and only 1 out of 4 bulls are in the bottom 25%
Realistically:
The odds are your crap bull is probably in the bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/2 and the good bull is in the top 1/3 of the breed.

IF the new bull is in the Top 30% $W43 and current bull is Bottom 35% $W33 (43 - 33 = 10)
$10 x 30 calves = $300 per year NET return
It would take that bull 10 years to return your $3000 investment $300 x 10 = $3,000
BUT 3.3% interest on $3,000 per year = $100 per year x 10 year = $1,000 3000 - 1000 = $2000
So it would take 30 calves sold per year at least 13.3 years to return the $3,000 investment
and 14 years to start turning a profit.
But bull salesmen say you should buy 1 bull for every 20 cows.
25 x $10 = $250 per year ect. :cry2:

The W$ index needs to be the focus, not ww pounds.
Otherwise you may end up comparing gross $ to net $ leading to unreasonable expectations.

The real kick in the head is IF you already have a good bull then genetic progress gets really hard.
Because the next bull you buy has to a good bull just to keep you from sliding backwards.

 

[Big Cheese]

Since that wasn't my post you were referring to, I may have overreacted in my replies. I am curious which one and/or whose it was.

With that being said your numbers don't add up. Using the numbers in your first post, 40 pounds improvement certainly wouldn't be unreasonable. At today's prices 40lbs extra is worth a lot more than $30.00 much less the $15.00 amount you used for your $375 per year.

Excellent point Rafter, allow me to explain.
First the numbers are not mine they are the current numbers from the American Angus Association $W and WW.
$W = Weaned Calf Value
Weaned Calf Value is determined by factoring in both the revenue and the increased production costs. (NET VALUE)
Just using WW is misleading because it fails to account for the added production costs associated with increased production.
40 lbs certainly is worth a lot more in GROSS Dollars but we all understand the bottom line and NET profit is what matters.

Choosing good breeding stock is important because genetic progress is slow and it takes a great amount of time to produced 3 generations. BUT expectations need to be kept realistic and not to fall for Blue Sky, used car, Bull Salesmen creating unreasonable expectations and offering quick fixes by throwing more money at their bull.

I also believe your $15-$30 range is low as well. It also has to do with how the calf looks in the ring at the sale and the buyer that buys the calf. If you have a junky bull throwing junky looking calves even if it weighs that 30-40 pounds more you wouldn't get the $15-$30 more you are talking about because the calf doesn't look good. A lot of things can happen in the short time the calf is in the ring.

Supa Dexta's explanation is more realistic in my opinion.

 

[Son of Butch]

Believe what you want, but if you are just using added pounds sold and not accounting for the added cost to produce them you are only fooling yourself.
Breed average is 50 ww top 1% ww 76
76-50 = 26 pounds
To improve ww 30 lbs using only genetics, if you have breed average genetics, you would need to use a bull 3% higher
than what currently exists.

 

[Rafter S]

Believe what you want, but if you are just using added pounds sold and not accounting for the added cost to produce them you are only fooling yourself.

Maybe I'm missing something, but if the calves from one bull are more efficient and get heavier on the same amount of feed, then where is this added cost?

 

[Big Cheese]

You sell the calves straight off the momma and don't add any extra cost into producing. The only cost will be hay, occasional feed and occasional medicine for the momma and calf.

Now if your feeding your calves out and having to buy feed and all of that your numbers could be more accurate. A lot of people on here aren't in that business however.

 

[gus2121]

Are we trying to justify the cost diff between the bulls or just figuring if the more expensive bull will outperform the cheaper bull as far as calf lbs?

 

[dun]

Year to year variation in forage quality can make a significant difference. Last yar we had 6 more heifers (1st Calvers) then usual. Used the same bulls on the same cows and our weaning weights went up an average of 27 lbs over the year before. Droughty pasture last year and too wet pasture the year before. So trying to lay it all either good or bad on the bull is hokum.

 

[Supa Dexta]

You can have a field of grass being eaten by dinks (sure a lot of ppl on here have a handle on genetics and breeding practices with well thought out goals in place, but don't kid yourself, the country side is still full of junk bulls, so the room for improvement is still there for many producers)

The grass is already there, and you can't account for it all being eaten by the dinks or you're running yourself too thin. You put a field of good calves in their place they will eat the grass, albeit slightly more, but convert it more efficiently and wean higher weights. If you avg'd 570, 600. 630, 700.. whatever you can still get 30 more lbs on them under the right circumstances. And yes of course environment plays a big role. But this whole scenario has to be pieced together with some generalities.

And my example of going from a 3k to a 6k bull opens doors to improvement, maybe not in your local sale if you feel that way, but many places its still true. And I didn't say from what weight.. if it were 550 to 580 its a lot easier than 670-700 with the prices I mentioned.

 

[retro]

I alot of people were I'am at are, It takes a lot of feed for Mama, and most people will feed the weaned calves for 60 to 90 days before the head to the sale barn..Don't get me wrong I don't belive in buy'n the cheaper bulls just to save some cash cause now you slid'n backwards side ways at best. But I don't shop for bulls with a price being the most important issue.. :2cents:

 

[Toad]

I look hard at ww when I shop for a bull but there are a lot of other factors that can come into play. Some of my cows are not the largest framed so I've learned I need to be sure and have a large framed bull to give the calves a good chance to be graded M at the sale. A 2 years ago I used a bull with good ww but a bit short and I had a bunch of calves graded S which hurt the check book. The bull I used this year had better frame but was only 47ww but I already can tell his calves are going to sell well.

 

[LRTX1]

I'm still trying to figure out where the OP seen someone say changing one bull will gain an extra 250lbs per calf.

 

[retro]

I'm still trying to figure out where the OP seen someone say changing one bull will gain an extra 250lbs per calf.

Me Too ! where is this super meat wagon bull ? and who is the genius that own's this bull :?:

 

[Son of Butch]

Year to year variation in forage quality can make a significant difference. Last year we had 6 more heifers (1st Calvers) then usual. Used the same bulls on the same cows and our weaning weights went up an average of 27 lbs over the year before. Droughty pasture last year and too wet pasture the year before. So trying to lay it all either good or bad on the bull is hokum.

Exactly right.
Genetic value can only be accurately measured using same season herdmate comparisons otherwise we just end up measuring environmental impact or perhaps changes in feeding, management or herd change due to age or health or stocking rate.
Genetics can be expected to add only so much.
Exaggerated claims of outrageous gains made from one year to the next, just because of the bull I sold them, is somehow leaving out the rest of the story. Perhaps that it had been a drought year and they had also culled the bottom 1/3 of the herd or that the pasture stocking rate was 15% lower due to added pasture rentals ect.

 

[retro]

I also agree with both of you, so How do you get a exact comparison You can't get the same cow to raise 2 calves from 2 different sires in the same yr.

 

[ga.prime]

Sheesh, I wish I'd never opened this thread. It's not all about the bull. That's not even half right. It's more about the cow and what kind of grazing is available.