Market Crash? 1987 or 1929? Bank Run?

[HerefordSire]

Gold up $60 per ounce today. Safety......may run back to $1,000 per ounce in a very short time frame.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080917/sector_snap_gold.html

Herf...relative to your comment on POT...what is your opinion on Mosaic?

Good question TB. They trade in tandem. You can substitute one for the other although there may be a tad more risk / reward with MOS.

 

[bigbull338]

personally id hang on to my cows.thats the only sure money right now.if you got cows land an equipment you got money.

Right now if you got all those things (cow, land and equipment)
All you have is bills.
I hope there is money down the road. But time will tell that tale also.

More cull cows go this week, with more to follow. I am sure.
Just cant put a pencil to it right now.

i think alot differantly than most people on here.but in my eyes if you have all those things.an your debt is none to low it doesnt hurt to borrow money todo what you want.now im not saying jump out there an take on more debt than you can pay off.with everything turned upside down its a good time to buy the things you really need.right now im in cow buying mode.so ill prolly buy cows every year for awhile.

 

[backhoeboogie]

i think alot differantly than most people on here.but in my eyes if you have all those things.an your debt is none

Maybe not so much different.

 

[TexasBred]

That is a good explanation. I might add....Fed is injecting liquidity so there is enough cash to access because the assets being held on many company's books, although most are of good quality, cannot be sold without losing a bundle of money because the bid value for these assets are "fire sale" bids and the spreads are very wide which implies weakness.

I'd disagree quite strongly that "most are of good quality" statement. That's what's driving this uproar: loans made for more than the true value of the asset. Or "Liar Loans." Just because a 2,000 square foot house originally sold for $250,000 and is only valued at $100,000 today doesn't mean the house was EVER worth $250,000.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liar_loan.asp

If you notice I didn't mention Freddie or Fannie or Country Wide credit, or all the others that bit the dust, sold, or bailed out. They are the ones that held the garbage. Some have been transferred and garbage still exists on company's books. However, quality assets are involved now...that is the main difference from now and before. The reality is...none of us know, except the Fed and insiders, the quality of the assets on the books of companies dropping like flies...for example AIG....about $1T worth of assets on the books (?) and the largest insurance company in the world and the govertnment loaned them $80B?

Come on Herf....get you some FNMA and FHLMC stock. Put it with those New Orleans Municipal Bonds and fatten up your portfolio. :nod:

 

[HerefordSire]

Come on Herf....get you some FNMA and FHLMC stock. Put it with those New Orleans Municipal Bonds and fatten up your portfolio. :nod:


This is the way I like to trade: only one company's stock options at one time. No diversification. I am in and out to reduce risk. My goal is about $1.5K to $5K per trade. I usually trade about 10-20 in the money equity options for around $30 per contract, or about $30-60K.

 

[TexasBred]

Come on Herf....get you some FNMA and FHLMC stock. Put it with those New Orleans Municipal Bonds and fatten up your portfolio. :nod:


This is the way I like to trade: only one company's stock options at one time. No diversification. I am in and out to reduce risk. My goal is about $1.5K to $5K per trade. I usually trade about 10-20 in the money equity options for around $30 per contract, or about $30-60K.

Sounds like it works for you. Use to buy a lot of treasuries, GNMA's and FNMA's when I was in banking. Actually used several brokers in the Little Rock sweat shops. Don't know if they are even in business anymore

 

[redfornow]

i think alot differantly than most people on here.but in my eyes if you have all those things.an your debt is none

Maybe not so much different.

Lets put you all back in your drought and see how many cows you are buying?

Feed was cheap as was fuel, during that drought you could afford to bale crap.
Cant do it at these prices. Pencil dont work....
I will not pay to have cows, I will cull back and live to fight another day.

Its easy to talk big when its raining!!!

 

[backhoeboogie]

i think alot differantly than most people on here.but in my eyes if you have all those things.an your debt is none

Maybe not so much different.

Lets put you all back in your drought and see how many cows you are buying?

Feed was cheap as was fuel, during that drought you could afford to bale crap.
Cant do it at these prices. Pencil dont work....
I will not pay to have cows, I will cull back and live to fight another day.

Its easy to talk big when its raining!!!

I culled to the bone and irrigated the hay fields. You must have me confused with someone else because we never baled crap. It was so dry cactus died. I had hay.

The drought was the worst ever on record but it was localized. Cattle prices were good. The real problem was the following year. We couldn't get eared cattle anywhere. All we could get was cold climate cattle. It is becoming more and more difficult to get cattle suited for this climate because of market trends elsewhere. You pretty much have to build from within and that is a very slow process.

 

[john250]

My Portfolio:

 

[1982vett]

Don't know which is worse, owning stocks or buying fertilizer. Burning the rope at both ends right now.

 

[HerefordSire]

Russian markets shut down until tommorrow. No confidence in Russian markets?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/eu_russi ... risis.html

 

[HerefordSire]

personally id hang on to my cows.thats the only sure money right now.if you got cows land an equipment you got money.

Right now if you got all those things (cow, land and equipment)
All you have is bills.
I hope there is money down the road. But time will tell that tale also.

More cull cows go this week, with more to follow. I am sure.
Just cant put a pencil to it right now.

I have a some weird philosophies. One is always to import hay...... so the capacity of the land is maximized by cattle stocking rates, no fertilizer purchased (just lime and clover, etc.), utilize the one ton of manure per cow through the imported hay, and reduce capital outlay maintenance, fuel, and machinery. I am looking at a $15K hay bill to get the cows to spring. Let's say I have 100 cows, that is about $200 per head per calf additional investment! I would rather hit the cattle bid, take my $15K and initial investment, buy market weakness, and wait until spring for some long breds or pairs purchased from a motivated seller.

 

[HerefordSire]

personally id hang on to my cows.thats the only sure money right now.if you got cows land an equipment you got money.

Right now if you got all those things (cow, land and equipment)
All you have is bills.
I hope there is money down the road. But time will tell that tale also.

More cull cows go this week, with more to follow. I am sure.
Just cant put a pencil to it right now.

i think alot differantly than most people on here.but in my eyes if you have all those things.an your debt is none to low it doesnt hurt to borrow money todo what you want.now im not saying jump out there an take on more debt than you can pay off.with everything turned upside down its a good time to buy the things you really need.right now im in cow buying mode.so ill prolly buy cows every year for awhile.

Have you tried to borrow money lately?

 

[HerefordSire]

Come on Herf....get you some FNMA and FHLMC stock. Put it with those New Orleans Municipal Bonds and fatten up your portfolio. :nod:


This is the way I like to trade: only one company's stock options at one time. No diversification. I am in and out to reduce risk. My goal is about $1.5K to $5K per trade. I usually trade about 10-20 in the money equity options for around $30 per contract, or about $30-60K.

Sounds like it works for you. Use to buy a lot of treasuries, GNMA's and FNMA's when I was in banking. Actually used several brokers in the Little Rock sweat shops. Don't know if they are even in business anymore

As you know, buying US Treasuries is one way to be guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the US although one can lose by market fluctuation if liquidating pror to maturity. This is equivalent to a FDIC backed account. They are very liquid historically speaking but are dependent on foreign countries and foreign investors. I hear on the street that some investors are willing to take zero percent return for about three months just to get their original principal back. The Little Rock Bond daddies, as I call them.....I have heard several stories over the years about them.

 

[bigbull338]

yes ive been borrowing money every year for the last 2 or 3yrs.an pretty muchly paying it off every year.so im not scared to go get the money for what i do.an they just tell me if i need something to tell them.

 

[HerefordSire]

yes ive been borrowing money every year for the last 2 or 3yrs.an pretty muchly paying it off every year.so im not scared to go get the money for what i do.an they just tell me if i need something to tell them.

Let's have some fun. Call your bank loan officer and tell them you are thinking about a new loan and see what they say. Last year was different than right now. If you can get a loan, ask what the interest rate is and ask if your collateral requirements have been changed.

 

[bigbull338]

ill do that in a month or less.when i have todo things i get everything lined up.an i know the interest rate hasnt gone up.heck it went down 2%.an they dont expect it to go up.family been doing biz there for well over 60yrs.

 

[bandit80]

ill do that in a month or less.when i have todo things i get everything lined up.an i know the interest rate hasnt gone up.heck it went down 2%.an they dont expect it to go up.family been doing biz there for well over 60yrs.

If it is a community bank, with already pre-established conservative loan practices, none of the requirements have changed. Interest rate is a reflection of the market and the individual credit.

Home loans have changed, and obviously rightfully so. You just shouldn't be able to get a loan for 100% purchase price of anything. That is just plum stupidity on the borrower and lender side.

If you have good credit, downpayment or extra collateral, and good cash flow to pay the loan back, qualifying for a loan is just the same as it was before this be nice started to hit the fan. At least it is in my neck of the woods.

 

[bigbull338]

you stated the reasons why i have no prob getting a loan if i want 1.because i can an do pay them off in 1/4 of the required time.

 

[HerefordSire]

you stated the reasons why i have no prob getting a loan if i want 1.because i can an do pay them off in 1/4 of the required time.

Do you need another tax dependant? :mrgreen: