Livid

[Brandonm22]

Everyone has days when the market turns sour and you either take a beating, or you take them home. Works the other way too? The market has an unexpected rise and you just happen to have cattle in the sale!
I would question the idea that the market is going to get a lot worse though? Not saying it won't happen...but if feeder calves get down in that 45-50 cent range...who is going to keep cattle? At 50 cents on a 550 lb. calf you are looking at $275! Who can keep a cow for $275 and still hope to buy a few beans to feed themselves!
Both the American and Canadian cow herd are in the liquidation phase. In fact the American cowherd has been decreasing for over ten years! sooner or later demand will excede supply and prices will rise? Sure this gong show with the banks has things pretty tight right now but that won't last forever.
If the day ever comes when I get 45 cents for feeder calves...the cows will be joining them the next week!

Don't make rash statements on how low prices can go. Over the last 35+ years, I have learned crow aint bad eating beaks and feet can be tough.

Caustic is right. We have sold calves below 45 cents numerous times in the last 25 years (and I honestly don't remember much about 1976). I don't know that you can keep a cow for just $275 (cash costs) but that really ought to be the goal of everybody in this business.

 

[syork]

Thank you for sharing your experience, as difficult as it has been.

There is a lot of good information in this thread, thanks to all.

I do feel as posted above that you should get rid of that bull asap no matter what the price is. Personally I would be concerned about selling him to anyone as a breeder with an attitude problem like that. Why not just sell him as a slaughter bull. The medical bill savings might more than offset whatever price you get.

Hamburger is where the market is right now anyway.

Thanks again for the discussion here.

syork, where are you located?

Rock WV

I know I wont be selling any no time soon thats for sure. I have seen a big difference in the prices. They are just BS prices. I know I wont be going to that market anymore cause of what they charge commission, and alot of people are complaing about the beef buyers down there they are not being honest about the sales.

 

[kenny thomas]

PM me which market you went to. I go to almost all of them except Wytheville sometime throughout the year.

 

[Alberta farmer]

Well I was too young to remember much about cattle prices in 1974 but I do remember around then my Dad was making a killing growing barley and wheat.
I would suggest though if prices went to 45 cents a pound there really wouldn't be a cattle industry? Who would raise them? Remember 25 cent calves adjusted for inflation to todays prices is what? I remember in 1973 my Dad bought a new Chevy heavy duty pickup for $3653! That was the exact price. So what is a half ton Chev worth today?....suddenly that 25 cent a pound looks pretty good?
If you owned everything outright and basically had no expenses I guess you could live with 45 cent calves...I guess I would wonder though...why would you want to? There's a whole big world out there and a million ways to make money. Don't know how smart it is working for nothing? Just my opinion.

 

[Brandonm22]

I could be wrong, but I don't ever recall a load of $.45 calves that weren't 2 years before or after $1.30 calves or both. It's part of the ebb and flow of a cash economy. If Automobile manufacturers sold their product at auction in a cash economy, ton trucks would be going for about $9000 rather than sitting in a port or rail yard because the fools won't lower their price (their must be thousands of new Hondas parked in lots in Birmingham waiting for some place to go). And yes I fully believe that ideally you should operate with everything paid for. If you got a $100,000 worth of equipment and a $200,000 mortgage you are paying out $20,000 a year just in interest (@8% on the equipment and 6% on the mortgage) expense.

 

[ddg1263]

I am sorry, but I can believe it. This market is just plain stupid, and has been for a while. The thing is try to go to a pure bred sale and you will still pay good money for a cow. We should all just park our cows at home for 30 days and not take one calf to the markets until things improve. If we dry up supply it is bound to push prices higher.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I am sorry, but I can believe it. This market is just plain stupid, and has been for a while. The thing is try to go to a pure bred sale and you will still pay good money for a cow. We should all just park our cows at home for 30 days and not take one calf to the markets until things improve. If we dry up supply it is bound to push prices higher.

Do you have any idea how much beef is imported and exported this has to do with a world recession as well as the one here.


It is not bad yet back during the last depression the government came in to my Grandpa's and klled half of his cattle and hogs. This went on across the US trying to get prices up.

 

[Brandonm22]

What does a purebred sale have to do with the beef market??

The ONLY people that should be bidding above market prices at a purebred sale for registered cows are people who ARE in the bull business and are looking for bull mamas. In that case (if she is bred) they are anticipating getting a marketable bull (or heifer) for sale ~12-22 months from now in which case today's market price doesn't have a lot to do with that price.

Maybe it is just me, but when 520 pound 1&2 ms steers are bringing $535-473 (in Alabama...in an usually cold winter) while that is NOT great, that is not bad either. That OUGHT to be close to break even for most people.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Do you have any idea how much beef is imported and exported this has to do with a world recession as well as the one here.

CB you are looking at the big picture and leaving emotions out of it. That is what it takes to be a good businessman, in anything you do.

"Buy low and sell high" is something we have always heard. I have made mistakes in taking success for granted and thinking things would always work the same way. They don't. Drought, storms, and other factors are always beyond our control. They influence markets. World conditions influence markets too. Anything can influence markets.

If you sit down to play poker and 4 people lose money, the money didn't disappear. It simply went into someone else's pocket.

20/20 hindsight would make everyone of us a millionaire in the stock markets. But we don't have a crystal ball to see the future. We always can see the past.

Being prepared is simply based on previous experiences and logic. I do my best to no have to sell when the market is bad. But you also have to know when it is time to quit throwing good money after bad too.

I hate to see any hard working people get burned. If they cows were worth more than they sold for, someone made money on them - just like the winner of a poker game.

 

[ddg1263]

As for my pure bred statement, I am just showing how supply and demand still maintains a decent market even in a sever recession.

As for this market not being bad, just look at the prices. I still can not figure out how you are going to sell a heifer that weighs 529 lbs for 82.96 gross before commission for 438.85. So you get a little over 400.00 and then you have to pay for hay, bulk feed transportation to the sale, tractor expense, corral expenses, worming, vaccinations, fly control, mortality on other calves, fencing, land cost depreciated like any other business, and your labor in putting it all together. If you just bought your hay and feed at retail, it would pretty much cover your 400.00. I am counting 4 bales of hay a year @ 75.00 a bale (making sure it is fertilized) and the other 100 dollars goes to buy pellets or stock feed through the winter months. It looks pretty bad to me!

 

[HerefordSire]

You cannot compare historical feeder prices accurately without accounting for inflation. You are wasting your time and unintentionally misleading people if you are. Just guessing, I would say about 3% per year. So 20 years ago, buying power could be reduced by 60%. Another way of looking at in... 2009 - 33 years = 1976.....in 1976 a 40 cent bid price would be the same as a 80 cent bid price now.

 

[HerefordSire]

You cannot compare historical feeder prices accurately without accounting for inflation. You are wasting your time and unintentionally misleading people if you are. Just guessing, I would say about 3% per year. So 20 years ago, buying power could be reduced by 60%. Another way of looking at in... 2009 - 33 years = 1976.....in 1976 a 40 cent bid price would be the same as a 80 cent bid price now.

...And the inflations numbers published by the government are not accurate. Additionally, there is currency debasement which dilutes all outstanding currency prior to issuance date. Therefore, when these actual numbers are calculated, a 80 cent bid price right now could really be about 20 cent bid price in 1976.

 

[ddg1263]

You cannot compare historical feeder prices accurately without accounting for inflation. You are wasting your time and unintentionally misleading people if you are. Just guessing, I would say about 3% per year. So 20 years ago, buying power could be reduced by 60%. Another way of looking at in... 2009 - 33 years = 1976.....in 1976 a 40 cent bid price would be the same as a 80 cent bid price now.

...And the inflations numbers published by the government are not accurate. Additionally, there is currency debasement which dilutes all outstanding currency prior to issuance date. Therefore, when these actual numbers are calculated, a 80 cent bid price right now could really be about 20 cent bid price in 1976.

I would think this is an on the money valuation of 2009 dollars vs 1976 dollars. One thing I noticed today was that beef prices in the supermarket are coming down a tad. I am not sure it will help demand.

I just wanted to add that in 1976 you could buy all the land you wanted for 300 to 400 per acre. Now you have to pay 3000 to 4000 per acre. So I whole heartily agree that the inflation rate stated by the government is not correct.

 

[KenB]

As for my pure bred statement, I am just showing how supply and demand still maintains a decent market even in a sever recession.

As for this market not being bad, just look at the prices. I still can not figure out how you are going to sell a heifer that weighs 529 lbs for 82.96 gross before commission for 438.85. So you get a little over 400.00 and then you have to pay for hay, bulk feed transportation to the sale, tractor expense, corral expenses, worming, vaccinations, fly control, mortality on other calves, fencing, land cost depreciated like any other business, and your labor in putting it all together.

If you just bought your hay and feed at retail, it would pretty much cover your 400.00. I am counting 4 bales of hay a year @ 75.00 a bale (making sure it is fertilized) and the other 100 dollars goes to buy pellets or stock feed through the winter months. It looks pretty bad to me


If you are buying hay @ $75 plus feeding grain you will be wasting money.

!

 

[stocky]

The 45 cent price I sold my 550 weight top quality calves for was in about 1995, not in the 70's. The prices were that bad in the 70's but they were bad as recently as mid 90's. There are many on this board who have not experienced the ups and downs in the market, because the last dozen years have been pretty good prices. Never have they been this good for this long. There are others on this board who have had to sell good slaughter cows for 10 cents per pound and good feeders for 25-40 cents per pound and good springer cows for 250 dollars. These people experienced it and lived through it and found a way to continue in this way of life. There are going to be rough times ahead that will drive many out who are in it just for the business and not the way of life. I hope I am wrong, but I am afraid I am not. As for inflation, farmers will always lose ground in that one. We are the only ones on the food chain who have no say in what we receive for our product. There are some who have been smart enough to market their animals in new and more profitable ways and they may be the only ones to stay in the way of life in the future. 75 dollar hay was mentioned and I figure if I have to pay 30 dollars per big round bale, I will lose money. A local farmer got sick and had 300 large round bales to sell and I got word of it, but I was too late, someone had bought it all for 10 dollars per bale. This happened a couple of days ago. Cattle will not pay for new equipment, high dollar feed, high dollar fences, etc. Keep your costs to a minimum and keep cattle that require as little maintenance as possible, do not buy expensive cattle, and do the best to protect your cattle when you market them and you have the best chance to survive. Buy your cattle when they look their worst and sell them when they look their best. Don't pay someone else to improve the cow that you should be improving. Do not commit yourself to long term equipment and vehicle debt based on good cattle prices. You could set yourself up for a bad time. If you want a new pickup, new tractor, and new equipment, plan on using your off farm job to pay for them. Sorry to those struggling with the drought. We always want to keep our cows, but the harshest and costliest lesson I ever learned was that there will always be more cows. You just have to keep yourself in position to buy them once you have survived the bad times. Sorry for the long post

 

[ddg1263]

If you are buying hay @ $75 plus feeding grain you will be wasting money.

Well when you are paying 1000 dollars a ton for fertilizer it does not take much to add up. I noticed a bunch of hay farmers buying cattle this past winter because no one would buy their hay, and they did not want to loose their crop so they bought some cows and fed out this winter. And I have seen a cattle farmer try to make it through the year with out hay because it was too expensive. The buzzards were circling their place this past year, and they looked extremely emaciated, body frame of 1. I harvested my hay this past year and even with no cost in my labor, I still had a big price in my hay costs. Times are hard for sure.

Everyone I know who is solvent is feeding hay and supplementing some all stock/pellet feed to carry cows through during the winter. Especially when you are trying to make sure your cattle get pregnant. I have found that if you get to cheap in some of your supplements, it will cost you in the long run. I don't know maybe I am doing things all wrong, but I bet when all is added up my input cost will as efficient as anyone in this state. I just think times are bad, and that is what everyone is telling me.

Changed emacipated to emaciated I am a goof ball! :banana: :banana:

 

[ddg1263]

opps double post.

 

[Workinonit Farm]

not take one calf to the markets until things improve. If we dry up supply it is bound to push prices higher.

Do you have any idea how much beef is imported and exported this has to do with a world recession as well as the one here.

I have heard alot of this lately, about 'lets not sell anything and we can drive up the demand'. What so many are not thinking about is the import market. Have you any idea how much dairy product is imported into this country as well as beef? While I don't have the actual figures on hand, I do know that it is more than I imagined.

There are a few other countries out there that can raise their beef and export it to the U.S. far cheaper than we can produce it here. That is one reason why so many folks push to try to develop a 'product' that could/would/should be superior to the foreign producers' product at a reasonable price to the consumer.....which is becoming increasingly more difficult to do being that inputs here in the U.S. are higher and we have more government regulations to contend with.

Okay, I'll shut up and quit rambling now.

katherine

 

[Alberta farmer]

Stocky: I do realize people raise cattle for many reasons besides "the business" end of it. Sometimes I tend to forget that. Nothing wrong with that attitude(lifestyle) if you can afford it?
In Canada we are facing our seventh year of low prices. Most of us still remaining in the cattle business have got pretty good at cutting costs and attempting to run a small profit.
In my own situation I intend to start breaking up grass land and converting more into crop production. I will be renting this land out to a close relative who has rented my crop land for several years on a share basis. Quite frankly I expect my bottom line to improve on this land. I am getting to the age where working for nothing is becoming real old!
I do not intend to sell this land and I intend to continue to live here. I have other business interests that take an increasing amount of time and pay a decent return on my capital and time.

 

[stocky]

Alberta farmer, Each of you in Canada certainly has my respect for being able to endure the hardships you have had to with the prices you have received over the last 7 years. I know your expenses can be far higher than those in the area where I live due to a much shorter growing season. Fescue growing April-November and being stockpiled for the cows to eat all winter has made my area a cattle haven, if used properly. The area where I live is one of the highest concentrations of momma cows in the country due to the fescue. We have lots of sales barns and lots of opportunities to buy and sell cattle and there are alot of people who put up and sell hay. With all of those positives, I still do not know one single family who has made their entire living with cattle. Every family I know, dating back the last 50 years, has had off the farm income in order to survive. I was not trying to belittle anyone or their operation, just wanted to remind many here in the US that even though the markets arent what they were a couple of years ago, they could be a whole lot worse and if you cant survive with these prices, it is going to be alot tougher if these prices are cut in half. Best of luck to you.