Is it time for retained ownership?
- Thread starter Cross-7
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If you have the pockets and stomach for it I suppose.
RanchMan90
Well-known member
Good read. If a person could afford to ride it out that long it may be something to look into. I would certainly hedge them though.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
This market is dropping so fast that the Beef mag numbers are a joke. They are soooo out dated.
The question is still valid - - why and when would you retain cattle in a declining market?
The question is still valid - - why and when would you retain cattle in a declining market?
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
Stocker Steve":w3q84jcp said:
I feel it's a good gamble at these prices. Hopefully time is on your side, how much lower will or can the market go? I think we're within $10-15 a hundred now of bottom. My feeling is we'll stay around these prices for a few years. And the weak "those carrying debt" will get weeded out and the cycle will start all over again.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
True Grit Farms":1s49i2ng said:
The "rallies" have been pretty short lately, and feeder futures were down as low to U$S 109. Takes time to retain and carry cattle through the winter.
The farm/cattle folks I know that have diversified into other investment are focusing their time there. Construction, rental properties, franchises, ect.
RanchMan90
Well-known member
The farm/cattle folks I know that have diversified into other investment are focusing their time there. Construction, rental properties, franchises, ect.
What size of hedge fund would these other investments take? I'm sure the ROI is looking much better right now
What size of hedge fund would these other investments take? I'm sure the ROI is looking much better right now
I don't know about construction but I'm involved in the other two. It's quite doable. Both multi unit residential and fuel stations have been very good to us.RanchMan90":3h9jfg2a said:
That said, I've put an awful lot of cattle on feed as of late, most of which will make money. Cow/calf guys are running to pull the panic button left and right. The market is the market but I bought 1,200 calves off one deal last week, and hedged a profit. The owners were astute cattlemen and cash solid as could be. Just were too busy watching the sky fall to worry about the next guy in the chain capturing the profit.
I'll buy more calves in the next 30 days than I've ever purchased.
jedstivers
Well-known member
I'm not into retained ownership but I started yesterday on buying 5wt Bulls.
Going to load the wagon on them.
Least a small wagon but it will be all I want.
Prol 200 or so. Depends on when I run out of room.
Going to load the wagon on them.
Least a small wagon but it will be all I want.
Prol 200 or so. Depends on when I run out of room.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Some of the strategy types start with what is your limitation? In cattle ag limitation is often framed as either labor, land, or animals. Sell/buy guys have labor and locations to handle more cattle. Cow/calf guys usually do not. I think a lack of networking or collaboration helps drive some cow/calf guys towards the panic button.
I spoke to the local back grounding yard on taking some of my 2016 calves. His yard is at about 1/3 of capacity and having trouble covering overhead. The owner is not willing to own a lot of cattle, and has problems finding people who will place cattle.
Heifer discounts are huge here. I think selling steers and buying back good heifers would give you a lot of 2017 options. Thin cows are also cheap. Corn silage could be a money maker.
I spoke to the local back grounding yard on taking some of my 2016 calves. His yard is at about 1/3 of capacity and having trouble covering overhead. The owner is not willing to own a lot of cattle, and has problems finding people who will place cattle.
Heifer discounts are huge here. I think selling steers and buying back good heifers would give you a lot of 2017 options. Thin cows are also cheap. Corn silage could be a money maker.
I have been weaning calves and putting them on grass. We are flush with grass and there is not much price difference from #550-#750. I do not like selling calves between Thanksgiving and the New Year. In the next 30 days I will decide if they stay or go. We need a good shot of rain to make every thing pop. If we don't get it I will be leaning more towards unloading them.
In the past I have done it and could actually make it pay but you have to really watch every penny. The best part is if I can sell heifers off to individuals. The heifers are already weaned, calm, come to feed, looking good... it doesn't take much time to show them. If I can sell as little as 10 heifers, $200 over market, no commission... it helps.
In the past I have done it and could actually make it pay but you have to really watch every penny. The best part is if I can sell heifers off to individuals. The heifers are already weaned, calm, come to feed, looking good... it doesn't take much time to show them. If I can sell as little as 10 heifers, $200 over market, no commission... it helps.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Brute 23":3rxga5lp said:
Most guys in the northland sell in the fall because they are out of grass. We do winter some calves on the cow out in a bale grazing paddock, where the calves get a little milk to help them digest cow hay. Not much labor or facilities needed to do that.
Results really vary with the type of winter and the type of genetics. Come early spring we wean and do another sort. Hereford crosses usually shine, but some of the growthy genetics don't look so great.
Dave
Well-known member
I think the answer is yes. Last week I sold the open heifers. Six good black heifers that were 50 pounds up or down of 1,000 pounds. I got 70-80 cents for them. So what, 100-120 days in the lot to finish them at 1,400 pounds? February fats are 99 cents today. You can hedge them for more money than they cost to buy. Then there is the cost of gain. Feed is down. It sure looks like it would work. it doesn't work for 6 head but I think it would sure work if you put together a pen full.
