How much Lower can they Go

[hurleyjd]

100 days to get from 425 to 625 lbs? 6 lbs of ddg @ 9 cents per lb, so $54 in feed + 1 hay bale = $80 put in. 200 lbs of gain @ $1.20 per lb= $240. So $160 profit, seems to be some meat left on the bone. Pretty close to a cow calf margin today and can be done 3x a year.

You have put some very accurate figures together on the feed cost. You show 1.20 a pound and that is a figure you pulled out of the air. What if they only bring .75 per lb. Then there in your pocket would be 70 dollars instead of 240 dollars. Any thing in there for any added expenses beside feed.

 

[RanchMan90]

Good point hurleyjd. I would prefer to lock in Jan 17 feeder cattle @ $1.20 today by hedging. And take some some undervalued 5 weights to feeder weight in that time frame. Take out $10 for vaccinations etc. for a $150 margin. A sharp pencil is critical in this market

 

[skyhightree1]

True. Sheep and goat market is still well over $2 a lb. They're not as cool as cows though lol

$$$$$ is always cool to me no matter what animal it is made off of ;-)

 

[RanchMan90]

I agree sky-high, I like to keep a diverse stock portfolio myself. I took a gooseneck load of 60 lb dorper cross lambs to goldwaithe last week, should feed a couple cows this winter :)

 

[skyhightree1]

I agree sky-high, I like to keep a diverse stock portfolio myself. I took a gooseneck load of 60 lb dorper cross lambs to goldwaithe last week, should feed a couple cows this winter :)

:lol: That being said I love fooling with my cows but if it were just strictly a money thing my pastures would be loaded down with goats and chickens and turkeys.

 

[RanchMan90]

Salatin style eh? I've read a lot of his work. Well I don't wanna hijack this thread, may start a new one called alternative agriculture. Idk if that's allowed on a cattle forum though lol

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Salatin style eh? I've read a lot of his work. Well I don't wanna hijack this thread, may start a new one called alternative agriculture. Idk if that's allowed on a cattle forum though lol

It is and by the way :welcome: to Cattle Today.

 

[RanchMan90]

Thanks, Ive been studying on here for a while. I like the numbers side of things and to be of any help I can be.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Thanks, Ive been studying on here for a while. I like the numbers side of things and to be of any help I can be.

You'll be a much needed addition I'm sure.

 

[wbvs58]

Our cycle is a couple of years behind yours. We are in an early herd rebuilding phase and prices are at unprecedent highs. Weaner steers are consistantly hitting the mid $4 /kg and it is surprising how quickly people are getting comfortable with it. Cashed up graziers are going to high profile bull sales and are just looking to unload money. The poor buggar$ having to restock after drought are in a predicament. When you look at the fundamentals though our industry relies heavily on our export market and our processors are having to compete with more competition in our markets with much lower cost meat from the likes of Brazil and the Indian buffalo meat in our live export market of Indonesia. It will only be a matter of time before we begin the same slide and you will be able to hear the whaling from over there. People just get too comfortable too quickly those high prices. It would be nice if they just settled somewhere in the middle but history tells me that doesn't happen, going from one extreme to the other is more the norm.

Ken

 

[tom4018]

From the looks of Guthrie they can go lower.

 

[RanchMan90]

Sure enough lower there. I suppose I am lucky to be near okc market. I think it will all come down to lower input costs and added value marketing- preconditioned calves and replacements etc. Seems to be a good time to upgrade stocker cattle.

 

[Ojp6]

From the looks of Guthrie they can go lower.

Yeah, they about gave the little cattle away.
I ran Riley's 5 or 10 cents on most of the stuff weighing over 600 and they stayed pretty steady with last week. Bid on about 150 big steers and heifers and only got 23 head. They were trying to steal them but were willing to pay something if somebody tried to buy some.

 

[FlyingLSimmentals]

Some others need to take a reduction. Sale Barn % commission, head charge all went up when cattle got high, prices of mineral, feed, seed, fencing, lime, burger combo's, ground beef etc... all did. I haven't really notice anything reducing besides the price on our cattle. On the plus side the Amish is buying many of the farms around me for awesome values so at least my property may be worth something.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Our cycle is a couple of years behind yours. We are in an early herd rebuilding phase and prices are at unprecedent highs.

Decades ago people expected a 10 to 11 year long cattle cycle.

How long did your liquidation phase last? How much was drought a factor is the large price swing?

 

[Stocker Steve]

Some others need to take a reduction. Sale Barn % commission, head charge all went up when cattle got high, prices of mineral, feed, seed, fencing, lime, burger combo's, ground beef etc... all did. I haven't really notice anything reducing besides the price on our cattle. On the plus side the Amish is buying many of the farms around me for awesome values so at least my property may be worth something.

The Amish have already reduced living and labor costs. Some futurists predict that we will all live more like the Amish - - once the rag heads go nuclear and oil gets really expensive.

Fertilizer is down about another $100/T this fall but cattlemen should not be buying much.