How much Lower can they Go

[FlyingLSimmentals]

Feeder Prices around here are basically about $1 per lb. at least for heifers and bulls. A small bit of me wish I had completely sold out a year ago. If it wasn't for the rest of me that like working with them I'm sure I'd would've let them go and be sitting maybe on a pond bank fishing with two good wrist, or checking out the bikini's on a beach somewhere, or at least resting comfortly in the recliner after the day job in town watching John Wayne. Guess these prices and my broken wrist has me feeling down this morning.

 

[Bigfoot]

Not sure how old you are, but I suspicion much younger than myself. You have to reach a point, with any endeavor where you embrace the good times, and live through the bad. I suspicion cattle will tick lower. We're e already at point where it may be below break even for someone with a mortgage/equipment payment. As long as your servicing your debt, it's worth hanging on.

 

[Margonme]

Mike:
Everyone has thoughts of that nature.

Personally, I enjoy this. That is why I do it. Nevertheless, I hope the prices go up. This is getting ridiculous!

Bigfoot. Mike is in his 30s. Not an old man like you and I. ;-)

 

[FlyingLSimmentals]

BF, I'm 34. Yeah, I'll have cattle until the day I die or someone tosses me into a nursing home most likely. There is just too much of me that enjoy working with them and the lifestyle it brings I suppose. Been with them since the day I was born figure I be with them until the day I exit. Still there is always that thought or bit of me thinking of what else I could be using my extra time doing if I didn't have cattle. I know for a fact I haven't missed the tobacco since we quit raising it again I wonder just a bit if I would miss the cattle but I love the cattle a lot more than the tobacco so I'm sure I would.
Sure gonna lose some money on some of the breeding stock I raised but other than that no real expenses anywhere to pay for. Guess I've got a little debate in my head whether to continue with some register breeding stock or just go back all commercial cow calf operating.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Actually I have been pleased with the last set of 4 wts I hauled steer calves 1.60 heifers 1.45. Sure I would love like two a pound but I can operate in the black at those prices.

 

[FlyingLSimmentals]

Ron, I'm younger than you but I sure feel old sometimes , you and some others here must be some tough old bucks :tiphat: . Keep on going Strong!

 

[hurleyjd]

Actually I have been pleased with the last set of 4 wts I hauled steer calves 1.60 heifers 1.45. Sure I would love like two a pound but I can operate in the black at those prices.

Sale date please

 

[J&D Cattle]

I'm with you Flying L. I enjoy cattle and will probably always own some. I get to thinking I could be just as happy with 15-20 or so at the house and forget all these lease places and the headaches that go with them. Land prices are still cheap where I live but have risen quite a bit as of late. I just won't use my own money to finance these cattle. They have to pay their way and this has kept me from buying a bigger or another farm.

Had a contract on a farm several months ago and the lady agreed and later disagreed twice on a contract. To say I was pi$$ed is an understatement and really left a sour taste in my mouth. This contributed greatly to my bad attitude as of late.

Got my little girl a pony and a buddy hauled me home a couple of horses last night. May just spend my time and money there for awhile. Good luck with your cattle and get healed up.

 

[callmefence]

I'm with you Flying L. I enjoy cattle and will probably always own some. I get to thinking I could be just as happy with 15-20 or so at the house and forget all these lease places and the headaches that go with them. Land prices are still cheap where I live but have risen quite a bit as of late. I just won't use my own money to finance these cattle. They have to pay their way and this has kept me from buying a bigger or another farm.

Had a contract on a farm several months ago and the lady agreed and later disagreed twice on a contract. To say I was pi$$ed is an understatement and really left a sour taste in my mouth. This contributed greatly to my bad attitude as of late.

Got my little girl a pony and a buddy hauled me home a couple of horses last night. May just spend my time and money there for awhile. Good luck with your cattle and get healed up.

Funny thing it gets me the opposite.
Lease places. I stock lightly , maintain fences, only check every week or two. Out of sight ,out of mind.
At home I constantly feel the need to be fixing ,planting ,spraying,or checking something. Pondered if I ever acquired the allr the lease property I needed. I would just let home go to the deer.

I'm not that old 48 or 49.....But I'm very high mileage.

 

[Margonme]

Ron, I'm younger than you but I sure feel old sometimes , you and some others here must be some tough old bucks :tiphat: . Keep on going Strong!

Well, I plan to go into extra innings. :kid:

Takes discipline, attitude, and motivation. All three come a little tougher as you get older.

:banana:

 

[Ojp6]

It's rough this week. Heifers and bulls 500 lbs and up are pretty much 1.05 and down around here.

 

[J&D Cattle]

I'm with you Flying L. I enjoy cattle and will probably always own some. I get to thinking I could be just as happy with 15-20 or so at the house and forget all these lease places and the headaches that go with them. Land prices are still cheap where I live but have risen quite a bit as of late. I just won't use my own money to finance these cattle. They have to pay their way and this has kept me from buying a bigger or another farm.

Had a contract on a farm several months ago and the lady agreed and later disagreed twice on a contract. To say I was pi$$ed is an understatement and really left a sour taste in my mouth. This contributed greatly to my bad attitude as of late.

Got my little girl a pony and a buddy hauled me home a couple of horses last night. May just spend my time and money there for awhile. Good luck with your cattle and get healed up.

Funny thing it gets me the opposite.
Lease places. I stock lightly , maintain fences, only check every week or two. Out of sight ,out of mind.
At home I constantly feel the need to be fixing ,planting ,spraying,or checking something. Pondered if I ever acquired the allr the lease property I needed. I would just let home go to the deer.

I'm not that old 48 or 49.....But I'm very high mileage.

Mine are way to spread out for what I have time for. One farm changed ownership and another just sold. It seems I'm always losing a lease for no doing of my own and having to hunt for another. The stress of that sometimes boils over.

 

[Margonme]

I'm with you Flying L. I enjoy cattle and will probably always own some. I get to thinking I could be just as happy with 15-20 or so at the house and forget all these lease places and the headaches that go with them. Land prices are still cheap where I live but have risen quite a bit as of late. I just won't use my own money to finance these cattle. They have to pay their way and this has kept me from buying a bigger or another farm.

Had a contract on a farm several months ago and the lady agreed and later disagreed twice on a contract. To say I was pi$$ed is an understatement and really left a sour taste in my mouth. This contributed greatly to my bad attitude as of late.

Got my little girl a pony and a buddy hauled me home a couple of horses last night. May just spend my time and money there for awhile. Good luck with your cattle and get healed up.

Funny thing it gets me the opposite.
Lease places. I stock lightly , maintain fences, only check every week or two. Out of sight ,out of mind.
At home I constantly feel the need to be fixing ,planting ,spraying,or checking something. Pondered if I ever acquired the allr the lease property I needed. I would just let home go to the deer.

I'm not that old 48 or 49.....But I'm very high mileage.

Mine are way to spread out for what I have time for. One farm changed ownership and another just sold. It seems I'm always losing a lease for no doing of my own and having to hunt for another. The stress of that sometimes boils over.

I appreciate that. Loud and clear. I never want more than 20 pairs. If I cannot manage it on my own land, I would not do it. I get anxiety when I cannot manage as I see fit.

 

[Aaron]

There is no reason we couldn't see .60-.80 US$ calves by next fall. We are back into the cycle where the backgrounder should be able to make some money with cheap feed.

 

[Margonme]

There is no reason we couldn't see .60-.80 US$ calves by next fall. We are back into the cycle where the backgrounder should be able to make some money with cheap feed.

Yikes!

 

[Bigfoot]

I have been saying that on here, for months now. Backgrounding become more enticing everyday. Problem is, your not sure where the floor is at.

 

[J&D Cattle]

I have been saying that on here, for months now. Backgrounding become more enticing everyday. Problem is, your not sure where the floor is at.

I'll pre-apologize for all the questions.

Do you raise your own feed? What weights are you buying at and selling at? Bulls, steers, or heifers? Is there a specific time of year you try to buy and sell at? I've started trying to put pencil to paper but haven't gotten very far yet.

Years ago everybody bought steers in the spring and sold out in the fall so they didn't have to winter them. Most have gone away from that though around here.

 

[Bigfoot]

I have been saying that on here, for months now. Backgrounding become more enticing everyday. Problem is, your not sure where the floor is at.

I'll pre-apologize for all the questions.

Do you raise your own feed? What weights are you buying at and selling at? Bulls, steers, or heifers? Is there a specific time of year you try to buy and sell at? I've started trying to put pencil to paper but haven't gotten very far yet.

Years ago everybody bought steers in the spring and sold out in the fall so they didn't have to winter them. Most have gone away from that though around here.

I have been backgrounding cattle for probably 30 or more years. I lost a pile around the end of 2016, and probably hadn't backgrounded 30-40 head since then. I'm not willing to run out tomorrow, and buy a load to background. I don't have a crystal ball, but my gut tells me we haven't dragged the bottom yet.

If you knew (but you don't) that current prices in my area would hold, some good money could be made taking a calf from 425 to 625. I'd give em 6 pounds of ddg a day, and we've had a wet summer. They'd have all the grass they could stand until Christmas.

 

[1982vett]

Well I saw a herd dispersal just the other day. It wasn't because of death, retirement, or health reasons. It was because of debt.

It was a pretty nice set of cows and in my opinion their wasn't a lack of interest. Bred 4-5 year olds went for $1400 to $1800. Pairs as much as $2400.

It's one thing to keep the books running in the black. It's another to run in the black and also be worth your efforts, time and risks.

But I agree, we go down more. Those $2500 heifers can't make their note payments with $700 weaned calves. Herd valuation cut in half will cause a lot of loans to be called.

 

[Margonme]

Well I saw a herd dispersal just the other day. It wasn't because of death, retirement, or health reasons. It was because of debt.

It was a pretty nice set of cows and in my opinion their wasn't a lack of interest. Bred 4-5 year olds went for $1400 to $1800. Pairs as much as $2400.

It's one thing to keep the books running in the black. It's another to run in the black and also be worth your efforts, time and risks.

But I agree, we go down more. Those $2500 heifers can't make their note payments with $700 weaned calves. Herd valuation cut in half will cause a lot of loans to be called.

That is the key to a recovery. Shake all the dead branches out of the tree and then we will have new growth. The recent market report out of UK focused on that. The failures will decrease Supply. The survivors will benefit.

Question is how long it takes.