How far are these feeder prices going to go??

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mncowboy

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Anyone dare to say how low these feeder prices are going to go? January futures are as low as $1.86. I've heard some radio/TV broadcasters speculate its due to a 2% increase in numbers since last year (a year where beef was at a 60 year record low) and others blame it on the Chinese economy or our own lessening demand. Others have said the diminished COOL program is to blame with beef now freely coming in from Argentina and the northern tips of Canada. I was hoping for another 2 years like the last in hopes of getting ahead.
 
Broadcasters are bigger idiots than forecasters.
A famous forecaster (who is seldom right) said this spring that we would have 3 more good years. Not.
I thought we might have 2 more good years and passed on LRP this spring. Bad decision.
I herd once that the US is one of the most expensive places in the world to raise beef. I think we need to worry about imports a lot more than a 2% swing in the US numbers.
The question I am asking is how many heifers should I retain now ?
 
I just read a report a month or so ago that figured it would be a gradual correction, speculating a .20 - .30 cent drop every few months until things were "corrected". Sure feels like that's out the window. As the corrections are coming weekly. Seems like just this spring there was a discussion about this topic and many people were in disbelief that this correction would happen so swiftly...I'm just glad I don't own any of those $3000 replacements right about now..long time recovering a profit if these prices continue to fall.
 
bball":2miq0occ said:
II'm just glad I don't own any of those $3000 replacements right about now..long time recovering a profit if these prices continue to fall.
they will never be profitable, unless, you are selling breeding stock
 
I,m fairly new to this, but this quick change of prices really messed with my developing brain (cattle wise) Last year we had some drought, and prices of hay went high, so after long thinking i decided to keep only 5 cows that i liked most, and sell the rest as heavy breds, and buy steers in the early spring, and sell them late summer, should make alright profit compared to keeping a cow all year,and feeding hay in the winter, and the prices here were stupidly low. So that i did, and the first patch of steers i bought were good and prices were somewhat low, then prices went up the sky, and i found out that this is a seller market, and my calves would make better money than those i bought to fatten. now i decided to buy more cows, and hold it at that. Prices are dropping again?!!! wow, it is hard learning on your own. :D
 
Stocker Steve":11ci119a said:
Broadcasters are bigger idiots than forecasters.
You got that right. Because broadcasters actually believe forecasters know something.

A famous forecaster (who is seldom right)...
On average forecasters are no more accurate than a monkey with a dart board.

I think we need to worry about imports a lot more than a 2% swing in the US numbers.
I agree imports will have greatest impact, but worry is a waste of time if you don't have the power to change problem.

The question I am asking is how many heifers should I retain now ?
That's a good question.
I'm selling older cows and trying to buy better young cows, but hard to find at right price and may have to buy heifers.
Being a contrarian is often the most profitable course of action. Sell when everyone is buying and vice versa.
On the other hand, I tend to do as I please and complain about the results later. :) s-o-b
 
What are the northern tips of canada? Cause there certainly ain't any cows up 'north'

We are down another 285k over last year though, so we're doing our part to keep our prices high..
 
I think the prices are a combination of many things. But opening up to all these imports is one of the major players. Our current leadership isn't concerned about the American farmer rancher.

gizmom
 
gizmom":4zz9ozjd said:
I think the prices are a combination of many things. But opening up to all these imports is one of the major players. Our current leadership isn't concerned about the American farmer rancher.

gizmom

x10
 
I think we need to remain calm until we see how much corn there is in the field. Whichever way corn goes this fall is going to go a long way in determining our market through the fall. If corn drops hard expect prices to come back. Stability in the futures market will drive prices up too. Nobody wants to buy when the market is jumping all over the place. JMO.
 
One has to assume cattle prices are just mimicking the stock market. Most of the theories listed here aren't going to cause the drastic drop, basically overnight, that we've seen. Or maybe it's just been that way here? Neighbors son-in-law sent a load of lighter bull calves two weeks ago and average $3.09/lb. My neighbor took a handful last week, and from what I saw go through the ring, probably averaged $2.25/lb. Same quality. I haven't heard of anything recently that should be causing that sort of drastic drop, other than the stock market, so it has to be based on speculation. Doesn't mean it can't right itself in the next couple weeks. Doesn't mean it will either.
 
I think its a combo of the packers and feeders wanting it down, and the cow man thinking its gonna come down soon. All this anticipation for it to drop, causes panic and stories to start about how its coming down - and down it starts.. Then the realization sets in that the meat it still needed, the numbers still aren't there yet and prices have to be paid for it.. atleast for today, but next week it will probably drop... it has to.. right?

..and repeat.
 
Just loaded and sent the rest of the 2nd cut of my fall heifers to the barn. Sell tomorrow. If the world flies apart, this fall, I will only have my top cut to complain about not selling. :p

Of course if the rest of the world wants to try and steal them at the barn, they will be back in my pasture on Sunday. :D
 
I'm unloading 5 cows with calves on Tuesday, prices are decent ($1.40) and I'm a little short of feed, so it'll go a long way selling them early. There's no sale the following tuesday, so I'm stuck on that, but the 14th I'll ship all the remaining calves. Looking at the market report, if you grew them from 450lbs to 550 lbs you put the extra weight on for $1.20/lb... really serious drop in price between the 4wts and 5wts.
 
I have no doubt the loss of COOL and the fact that the USDA just authorized importing beef from Brazil and Argentina will have a negative effect on our prices... JBS which is the Brazilian owned (government financed) biggest beefpacker in the world is now procuring beef from South America for $70 cwt.- and can now pass that off as domestic beef in the U.S. with our loss of COOL... I believe Sept 1 was the date they could start importing...

The only question is how low will the prices go....
 
Every market is a living breathing monster with a mind of its own. If someone tells you they know what's going to happen in any market tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year they're lying to you. There is absolutely no way to predict what a market will do or when, just make sure when you sell your positions in that market you're making $ not losing $, that's all you can do.
 
Ojp6":36hymh87 said:
I think we need to remain calm until we see how much corn there is in the field. Whichever way corn goes this fall is going to go a long way in determining our market through the fall. If corn drops hard expect prices to come back. Stability in the futures market will drive prices up too. Nobody wants to buy when the market is jumping all over the place. JMO.
Good comment Opj6. I am a small buyer but my bid counts also. I need 25 or so steers to keep till December and have been sitting on my hands because each sale the price is different and mostly cheaper. I have 14 bought and all of them seem too high now. Maybe the next 26 will makeup for the price.
 

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