Howdyjabo":1unvfhyx said:
BEZ gave you good advice- stand back and think twice. Even The Pros are having a hard time turning a dime right now
Times are different right now that I have ever seen them. It is simply the effects of feed prices and fuel, drought and consumer demand. Most everyone's operations and facilities are set up for a different scenario.
Packer bulls are bringing $68 to $74 at the sale barn.
4 weight steers are bringing $110 or about $440 a head.
7 weights are bringing $103 or about $721 per head.
If the market held to what it is now, it would make sense to just buy 4 weights and pasture them until they were 7 or 8 weights. Maybe even hold them until next spring and sell them even bigger if you have the hay and the forage. You have to have good forage or grass.
I am not familiar with what grows in CA and certainly not a judge of pastureland there, even if you describe it to me perfectly. I am not familiar with what breeds fare well in that climate. I'd be asking and looking if I were entering the business there. I would probably watch the sale barns to see what sells and what doesn't. Talk to some of the buyers/sellers there. Maybe meet some folks who know the area and the markets.
Three years from now the market may flop back to the old ways, or it may evolve even farther away from what we know. It all depends on several input variables. Big operations here are backing out gently. Hay growers are now stocking pastures. What effects will this have long term?
What I know right now are what the market reports say from the last sales. Those reports generally change week to week but they have been holding steady for quite some time now. It all looks radical to me.
I don't see grain prices falling any time soon.
I don't have a crystal ball.