Economy

[Nesikep]

I would say overall the economy is definitely better. Here’s the deal though, to really see the benefits of a good economy you need to live in an area that people try to better themselves from it. I live in an area that things never really change for the average person because they don’t try to take advantage of the good times.

Doing better as opposed to what. Since Obama since the Recovery Act 11 years ago, the US has been on the biggest economic boom in its history. But, there has been tons of deficit spending in those years. The stock market is not a good indicator of how an economy is doing, wage growth is one thing to look at also. To be fair, we do have one of the lowest rates of unemployment in history but this to has been falling for 11 years.

In a post on facebook I said pretty much exactly what you said

Growth is easy when you're injecting $1 trillion every year

 

[sstterry]

Terry, where have you seen that Trump has proposed cutting SS and Medicare benefits. Are there quotes from him or his administration you are referring to?

Over the next 10 years, Trump’s 2020 budget proposal aims to spend $1.5 trillion less on Medicaid; $25 billion less on Social Security; and $845 billion less on Medicare.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/03/14/trump-outlines-a-significant-social-security-cut-i.aspx

https://www.inquirer.com/health/consumer/trump-budget-medicare-medicaid-20200214.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/9/trump-budget-cuts-44-trillion-medicare-discretiona/

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tru...-isnt-to-protect-the-most-vulnerable-among-us

There is tons of information on this it just does not get much air time because of all of the other outrageous stuff going on.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

We can fuss and fume all we want but if there’s a better alternative to the status quo then he or she has done a good job hiding it.

 

[Stocker Steve]

We have seen nothing of an improved economy. Obama killed the coal industry and a company owned by the governor of West Virginia finished off the support industry. Jobs are very rare here.
And now many in the logging business are in bad trouble. Logs aren't bringing the cost of getting them out and to the sawmill.

Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the oil fields seem to be doing OK. Fly over country not so much. Years ago many people would have migrated to greener pastures. What is happening today?

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Everybody must have moved south because our cities are booming Steve.

 

[TexasBred]

My understanding is that the government is not doing quantitative easing if that's what you're asking?

I just read this article on QE and still do not understand it. Is it where the Central bank buys assets from local banks so there will be money loaned again and again. What do you think the assets are of a bank may be mortgages, auto loans operating loans I really have a hard time understanding this.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/quantitative-easing.asp

Hurley mortgage companies have always originated loans, bundled a large number of them into one pool and sold them to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae etc. The originator of the loan receives cash to then originate more loans and retains servicing on the loans which they sold which bring them in income. Works well for all involved as long as you have strong underwriting guidelines to insure you have high quality borrowers.

 

[greybeard]

Oilfield is cyclic and always has been. Boom & bust..but the current model is more of looking flatlined on a plateau. Success has created a saturated global and domestic market.
Service companies like Smurfs and Haliburton slow down because drilling slows down. We have more oil & gas now than we can sell and limited storage at the Cushing Ok hub and equally limited in tanks on the gulf coast. No one is going to go drilling for new oil when they don't have or foresee a future demand for it and that's especially true for current oil prices. As in any O&G boom tho, many new companies formed and entered the service sector...some of those will be hard pressed to survive an extended glut period, and they shouldn't.

Outside of O&G I see new construction everywhere I look around here. Housing, both multi family and single family and new businesses opening almost weekly.

(disclaimer..my youngest son works for the Smurfs)

 

[jltrent]

It will all come out in the end...After Bernie gets in there everything will be be free....

 

[ccr]

Terry, where have you seen that Trump has proposed cutting SS and Medicare benefits. Are there quotes from him or his administration you are referring to?

Over the next 10 years, Trump’s 2020 budget proposal aims to spend $1.5 trillion less on Medicaid; $25 billion less on Social Security; and $845 billion less on Medicare.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/03/14/trump-outlines-a-significant-social-security-cut-i.aspx

https://www.inquirer.com/health/consumer/trump-budget-medicare-medicaid-20200214.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/9/trump-budget-cuts-44-trillion-medicare-discretiona/

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tru...-isnt-to-protect-the-most-vulnerable-among-us

There is tons of information on this it just does not get much air time because of all of the other outrageous stuff going on.

Thanks for the links. I read through them, but didn't see any cuts to SS or Medicare benefits. Some mentioned changes to social security disability back pay and changes to medicare regarding fraud, cuts to health care providers and cost of prescriptions, but not cuts to SS and Medicare benefits.

 

[hurleyjd]

I was trying to post in my opinion that the economy is built on credit and when the bill comes due then what. This opinion is based on what I see and read. I try to follow a lot of fiance news. You can buy a lot of cars and farm equipment on 72 and 84 year notes that is a long time for something to blow up.

 

[jltrent]

I was trying to post in my opinion that the economy is built on credit and when the bill comes due then what. This opinion is based on what I see and read. I try to follow a lot of fiance news. You can buy a lot of cars and farm equipment on 72 and 84 year notes that is a long time for something to blow up.

Hurley if the SHTF the big losers will be the wealthy for the most part as like the depression a lot of people didn't even know there was a depression. When and if the country becomes bankrupt to the point of no return it will start over and people with volatile paper will lose it. The stock holders, bond holders, banks will drop to near nothing, national debt will be abolished and then the country starts over. Pretty simple as I worked in the banking industries for 5 years in the eighties and people lose it all and then start over. SOme come out in better shape than before.... I think eventually that is how the country will solve the large spread in wealth....If you have a large investment in stock which is nothing more than holding a legal paper and in goes to nothing then you have nothing. I was working in the banking industry when Black Monday happened and one guy I know then lost $300,000 in one day..


Black Monday then was almost a 25% decline,, when it happens again it will be way worse.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

 

[Nesikep]

I was trying to post in my opinion that the economy is built on credit and when the bill comes due then what. This opinion is based on what I see and read. I try to follow a lot of fiance news. You can buy a lot of cars and farm equipment on 72 and 84 year notes that is a long time for something to blow up.

I'd be interesting to see how many loans are out there for items that are worth less that what is owed on them!

JLtrent, the wealthy typically have a lot of real estate for assets as well.. So they may go "broke" and have to sell some mansions to keep their other mansions

 

[jltrent]

I was trying to post in my opinion that the economy is built on credit and when the bill comes due then what. This opinion is based on what I see and read. I try to follow a lot of fiance news. You can buy a lot of cars and farm equipment on 72 and 84 year notes that is a long time for something to blow up.

I'd be interesting to see how many loans are out there for items that are worth less that what is owed on them!

JLtrent, the wealthy typically have a lot of real estate for assets as well.. So they may go "broke" and have to sell some mansions to keep their other mansions

Good point Nesikep as the wealthy are scared to death they will lose it and try to prevent it from happening. Real estate and gold are good investments, and will be better than paper, but they will take a big hit there also..

This small rural county I live in has 4 banks and I figured up one day their total loans as it came out to more the a half billion dollars in debt, heck the county is not worth that. IN the eighties the bank I worked for I repoed over 200 vehicles and attended several 4-closure sales representing the bank and a lot people then were hedged to the limit in debt.

 

[sstterry]

Terry, where have you seen that Trump has proposed cutting SS and Medicare benefits. Are there quotes from him or his administration you are referring to?

Over the next 10 years, Trump’s 2020 budget proposal aims to spend $1.5 trillion less on Medicaid; $25 billion less on Social Security; and $845 billion less on Medicare.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/03/14/trump-outlines-a-significant-social-security-cut-i.aspx

https://www.inquirer.com/health/consumer/trump-budget-medicare-medicaid-20200214.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/9/trump-budget-cuts-44-trillion-medicare-discretiona/

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tru...-isnt-to-protect-the-most-vulnerable-among-us

There is tons of information on this it just does not get much air time because of all of the other outrageous stuff going on.

Thanks for the links. I read through them, but didn't see any cuts to SS or Medicare benefits. Some mentioned changes to social security disability back pay and changes to medicare regarding fraud, cuts to health care providers and cost of prescriptions, but not cuts to SS and Medicare benefits.

It is my understanding that the biggest cuts are in SS Disability and cutting the growth of future SS payments.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Terry, where have you seen that Trump has proposed cutting SS and Medicare benefits. Are there quotes from him or his administration you are referring to?

Over the next 10 years, Trump’s 2020 budget proposal aims to spend $1.5 trillion less on Medicaid; $25 billion less on Social Security; and $845 billion less on Medicare.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/03/14/trump-outlines-a-significant-social-security-cut-i.aspx

https://www.inquirer.com/health/consumer/trump-budget-medicare-medicaid-20200214.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/9/trump-budget-cuts-44-trillion-medicare-discretiona/

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tru...-isnt-to-protect-the-most-vulnerable-among-us

There is tons of information on this it just does not get much air time because of all of the other outrageous stuff going on.

Thanks for the links. I read through them, but didn't see any cuts to SS or Medicare benefits. Some mentioned changes to social security disability back pay and changes to medicare regarding fraud, cuts to health care providers and cost of prescriptions, but not cuts to SS and Medicare benefits.

Fake news

 

[Stocker Steve]

Land seems to be holding value here due to a mix of outside money and intergenerational farm equity.

Cattle, outbuildings, and equipment are often overvalued. Some of those 2014 bred heifers are still on the books for four figures...

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I was trying to post in my opinion that the economy is built on credit and when the bill comes due then what. This opinion is based on what I see and read. I try to follow a lot of fiance news. You can buy a lot of cars and farm equipment on 72 and 84 year notes that is a long time for something to blow up.

72 and 84 "month" notes I believe you meant.

 

[greybeard]

I was gonna say, if I could get a 72/84 year note with little bitty mo payments on a new tractor I'd go get one today...hell, 10 years would probably outlive me easy.

 

[hurleyjd]

I was trying to post in my opinion that the economy is built on credit and when the bill comes due then what. This opinion is based on what I see and read. I try to follow a lot of fiance news. You can buy a lot of cars and farm equipment on 72 and 84 year notes that is a long time for something to blow up.

72 and 84 "month" notes I believe you meant.

Yep

 

[Stocker Steve]

I was gonna say, if I could get a 72/84 year note with little bitty mo payments on a new tractor I'd go get one today...be nice, 10 years would probably outlive me easy.

You can get 99 year loans in some cases, but I don't think JD financial will do it.