It's already happening. See market reports below. Packer cows down $5-10 in last few weeks. Buyer told me so much imported ground beef is making it hard for packers to move the US meat. Not sure how much it will affect the bred cow market. Around here it seems bred cow buyers are mostly focused on what their calves sell for and pretty oblivious to the kill market at present. Probably be a delayed reaction down the road if kill cows stay quite a bit cheaper.
Per my plan, am planning to sell all my old cows that have calves over 300 lb this week. Most of these cows are in good condition. Those with smaller calves will wean this winter and possibly background calves until spring. Have several of these cows that are thin, so plan to feed/fatten them after weaning for spring sale. Am hoping the bred market will soften in fall so can buy replacements.
KO_LS151
Oklahoma City, OK Tue Aug 18, 2015 USDA-OK Dept of Ag Market News
Oklahoma National Stockyards, Oklahoma City, OK.
Cow and Bull Auction Report for Tue 08/18/2015
Receipts: 540 Last Sale: 498 Last Year: 499
Receipts Monday: 6,044
Compared to last week: Slaughter cows 7.00-9.00 lower. Slaughter
bulls 3.00 lower in a light test. Packer demand moderate. Demand
remains good for bred cows and pairs. Total of 190 cows and bulls sold
with 56 percent going to slaughter.
KO_LS157
Oklahoma City, OK Mon Aug 24, 2015 USDA-OK Dept Ag Mkt News
OKC West - El Reno Livestock Market, El Reno, OK.
Cow and Bull Auction Report for Mon 08/24/2015
Receipts: 434 Last Week: 148 Last Year: 474
Compared to last week: Slaughter cows 1.00-3.00 lower. Slaughter bulls
1.00-2.00 lower. Packer demand moderate at best. Slow movement of beef is
limiting demand for cows. A total 407 cows and bulls sold with 38 percent
going to packers.