Corn Market 2016-2017

[ddd75]

US average annual production cost for corn: 625/ per acre.

 

[Stocker Steve]

250 bu / acre ?

 

[Son of Butch]

Chicago Market
7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

2 different market forecasters have projected new crop December 2017 corn in the 4.40 - 4.70 range
I think they are full of xxxx...
but my wild guess is maybe we'll be seeing 4.30 corn in 2018

update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices
Right now grain bin doors are welded shut until at least March expecting prices to slowly grind upwards till June.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Some new grain bin sales occurring here.
Land renters are getting hard to find.
Many traditional dairies are raising feed at a higher cost than the market value, and then losing $ making milk with the feed.

 

[Stocker Steve]

update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices.

At what point do you lose less money by fallowing the land?

 

[Son of Butch]

You're just mean... ... but would have been better off renting out the crop land the last 2 years.

 

[Stocker Steve]

You're just mean... ... but would have been better off renting out the crop land the last 2 years.

I am serious about calculating the chemical fallow breakeven.

I know some folks count on ARC or crop insurance, but that does not work well in lower history production counties.

You could blow on a season long cover crop to improve soil health, and then turn the cows out into it during the fall to really mess with the coffee shop experts. :cowboy:

 

[ddd75]

paying 250 - 300 / ac for crop ground here still.

-=

 

[TexasBred]

Chicago Market
7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

2 different market forecasters have projected new crop December 2017 corn in the 4.40 - 4.70 range
I think they are full of xxxx...
but my wild guess is maybe we'll be seeing 4.30 corn in 2018

update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices
Right now grain bin doors are welded shut until at least March expecting prices to slowly grind upwards till June.

What phase is the moon in???

 

[Son of Butch]

New Moon is 12/18/17

 

[Stocker Steve]

paying 250 - 300 / ac for crop ground here still.

I was offered 77 acres for $50 each last month, and it does not pencil out.

 

[ddd75]

local mills still wanting 7.00/bag of corn .. insane.

have this one place near me.. I guess they ship internationally.. called for a quote on cattle feed.. they wanted 2,500 / ton for it. WHAT? They just bought this mill and came in. don't advertise or even have a sign up. I guess they just ship to really rich people? They are a huge company.

 

[ddd75]

paying 250 - 300 / ac for crop ground here still.

I was offered 77 acres for $50 each last month, and it does not pencil out.

yea I don't understand it. They are even advertising in the paper wanting ground.

 

[Stocker Steve]

paying 250 - 300 / ac for crop ground here still.

I was offered 77 acres for $50 each last month, and it does not pencil out.

yea I don't understand it. They are even advertising in the paper wanting ground.

A few think their time and equipment are free.
A few skimp on fertilizer and spray, and then walk away from mined out soil after a couple years.
A few are really good, and have yields way above the county average.

Mainstream is selling cropping technology hard as a way to become profitable. Better seed, more seed treatments, spendy pre emerge mixes, better drainage, better seed positioning, variable rate, higher & variable population, multi hybrid planters... I assume this technology can pencil out with a certain size operation and a certain soil productivity and $5 corn. Here, at current prices, much of it will just increase your loss/acre. The revenue is not there.

We have gone back to the future. Lots of legumes, long crop rotations based on forage, walking feed off the place... I refused to plant corn this spring. We made a decent profit on beans even after a land charge. We will show a modest profit overall, and improved soil OM. :cboy: Time to go feed calves with my 5 gallon TMR.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I dug into the 2016 farm business report for northern MN:

renters had a much lower depreciation expense
renters had a much lower interest expense
So while the average renter had a lower return/acre than an owner operator - - the difference/acre was less than I had thought and they ran more acres...

 

[bball]

I was offered 77 acres for $50 each last month, and it does not pencil out.

yea I don't understand it. They are even advertising in the paper wanting ground.

A few think their time and equipment are free.
A few skimp on fertilizer and spray, and then walk away from mined out soil after a couple years.
A few are really good, and have yields way above the county average.

Mainstream is selling cropping technology hard as a way to become profitable. Better seed, more seed treatments, spendy pre emerge mixes, better drainage, better seed positioning, variable rate, higher & variable population, multi hybrid planters... I assume this technology can pencil out with a certain size operation and a certain soil productivity and $5 corn. Here, at current prices, much of it will just increase your loss/acre. The revenue is not there.

We have gone back to the future. Lots of legumes, long crop rotations based on forage, walking feed off the place... I refused to plant corn this spring. We made a decent profit on beans even after a land charge. We will show a modest profit overall, and improved soil OM. :cboy: Time to go feed calves with my 5 gallon TMR.

Just found out another one in our area is closing it down. Gave up all his ground for this spring except for my FIL place. Said he will farm it one more year and then he is completely out. Was going back through my books for the past few years and I haven't paid $5 bushel for corn in 5 years. Its been $3 and some cha ge or less for the past 3 years. I honestly don't understand how a man can make that work.. 10 acres or 5000 acres??

 

[littletom]

I am not a row cropper, but a tobacco farmer, amongst a lot of grain. They tell me the beans turned a pretty good profit with a great yield. You can't do beans forever, weeds and all the om they eat. Corn I asumme they get a little insurance they claim to make a little. Friends of mine run 4500 acres and pinch every cent they can. But have nice late model eqt. owned and leased. I don't see crop ground going back to grass here just to much time and money to put back, and the fence is gone. And not much money per acre, I put some back at 130 a acre and 2 years to get right to graze. Can lease it for 140 that makes more sense than the 2 acres it cost to graze a pair.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I don't see crop ground going back to grass here just to much time and money to put back, and the fence is gone. And not much money per acre, I put some back at 130 a acre and 2 years to get right to graze. Can lease it for 140 that makes more sense than the 2 acres it cost to graze a pair.

Establishing alfalfa and putting in a 5 strand fence is speedy, but there are other lower cost ways. I have a lot of converted alot of crop ground with a clover/grass mix and a single strand high tensile fence. You can graze the first fall as long as it is dry or froze.

There are some semi reformed dirt farmers going the double crop route. Raise a short season grain crop or spray out an old stand - - then follow with a fall cover crop mix and temporary fence. Too much work for many, and harder to do it the north, but still a good idea if you do not winter on the beach. Keys are seeding early enough to get some tonnage, and including a LITTLE brassica to get the deep rooting for a yield increase next year. If you can cover the OH and make a small profit on the grain crop, and get a nice return on the CC, then the economics/acre change. Cows are not ideal, so if you want to make this extra effective you graze calves on the hi test cover crop.. :nod:

 

[littletom]

I'll keep growing smokes for a job and running cows on the side.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I'll keep growing smokes for a job and running cows on the side.

You had me worried. I thought you might be a corn grower.