Corn Market 2016-2017

[Son of Butch]

7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

I follow market moon phases and have found nearly every market sets its' high and low within 3 days of either a
Full moon or a New moon. The past 12 month corn market has been no different.
Corn's LOW 3.41 occurred on Tuesday 8/30/16 two days before the New Moon on Thursday Sept. 1st
HIGH for the past 12 months 3.92 and occurred Friday July 7th 2 days before the Full Moon on Sunday July 9th

Current price 3.80

I think the old crop corn High and Low have been set. Tonight is the New Moon, I expect the market to chop sideways and drift lower into fall. Market 'experts' say we are in a weather market now and nobody knows what it will bring, but...
2 different forecasters have projected new crop December 2017 corn in the 4.40 - 4.70 range

I think they are full of xxx themselves... but my wild guess is maybe we'll be seeing 4.30 corn in 2018
IF anyone needs to buy corn for the winter I'm thinking August 18 - Sept 22nd will be the best buying time
or the worst time to sell

 

[TexasBred]

Elevators paying $3.40 down here delivered to their location. Harvest is in full swing I'm told.

 

[ddd75]

with the global corn and bean market.. I doubt it will go over 4.00 anytime soon, unless some major events happen.

 

[Son of Butch]

The three I's, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana produce so much corn that their production almost drives the market.
Next month's 3-I crop report/forecasts will go a long way in setting the new crop futures pricing.

Locally our crops look Great for the 3rd year in a row. (except for a few farmers that got nailed with hail)

 

[Stocker Steve]

Local corn price last fall got down to U$S 2.45, and very few takers at that due to no storage. One neighbor planted a lot of grain last spring and ended up working at Walmart in the fall.

Who is making money at current grain prices?

 

[Douglas]

Around $4.45 in NC cash. Crop looks good from the road

 

[TexasBred]

Local corn price last fall got down to U$S 2.45, and very few takers at that due to no storage. One neighbor planted a lot of grain last spring and ended up working at Walmart in the fall.

Who is making money at current grain prices?

Our crop is little more than a drop in the bucket compared to the midwest but most farmers here take a several pronged approach. They'll contract early to sell off a certain amount to be cut for corn silage. Some will contract a percentage for export and a certain amount will be sold to local grainerys. The rest will be stored on farm and sold as needed or as market moves up. And of course they all have crop insurance as well. Most ag lenders require it. The few I've talked with over the years says it works well for them in most situations.

 

[Son of Butch]

Who is making money at current grain prices?

ADM, Cargill, Harvest States, Chicago Board of trade ect. ect.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Kind of like the cattle business - - traders make money, producers not so much?

 

[Son of Butch]

farmer: noun /far-mer/ sells at wholesale, buys at retail and pays the freight both ways

 

[Stocker Steve]

I think the big money is in deer ranching, :nod: and grain carry, :nod: and I have a plan. :cowboy:

 

[bball]

farmer: noun /far-mer/ sells at wholesale, buys at retail and pays the freight both ways

Genius!
And sad but true.

 

[bball]

I think the big money is in deer ranching, :nod: and grain carry, :nod: and I have a plan. :cowboy:

Steve- a young gal I work with, her husband was heavy into dairy cattle, had an 18 wheeler and got tired of being broke. So, he starts hauling popcorn on the side to supplement the dairy. Crunches numbers, realizes dairy is losing while hauling is paying out well. Sold the cows, paid off his note and is now running 7-8 big rigs last I heard. Wife has all but quit the hospital to run the trucking business.
I know the deer ranching/leasing pays out well from personal experience..

 

[TexasBred]

I think the big money is in deer ranching, :nod: and grain carry, :nod: and I have a plan. :cowboy:

Steve- a young gal I work with, her husband was heavy into dairy cattle, had an 18 wheeler and got tired of being broke. So, he starts hauling popcorn on the side to supplement the dairy. Crunches numbers, realizes dairy is losing while hauling is paying out well. Sold the cows, paid off his note and is now running 7-8 big rigs last I heard. Wife has all but quit the hospital to run the trucking business.
I know the deer ranching/leasing pays out well from personal experience..

Lots of dollars swap hands in deer ranching. Don't know how much profit there is. Most down here that are in it have them for tax writeoffs and spend millions on land and breeding stock not to mention truck loads of feed.

 

[Son of Butch]

7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

Current price 3.80

Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10

 

[1982vett]

7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

Current price 3.80

Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10

So operating interest and storage cost eat up the difference to hold for December or July?

 

[TexasBred]

7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

Current price 3.80

Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10

+/- the basis and delivery for the buyer.

 

[Son of Butch]

Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10

So operating interest and storage cost eat up the difference to hold for December or July?

Maybe, but corn is already dried and in the bin by November so for most all who own their bins there is no extra
storage costs once it's in the bin... only spoilage risk

Main decisions are usually sell at harvest or hold and if so, hold for how long.
Some might want to hold until new year for tax reasons or sell/deliver before January for tax reasons

22 cents difference between 3.88 dec vs 4.10 july = 5.67% increase holding to july
5.67% in 7 months = 0.81% per month or 9.72% per year

 

[TexasBred]

OR sell with deferred payment until after new year begins and buyer pays you interest on your money. But if you do it one year you have to keep doing it or wait for a year with a big loss to claim to years of sales in one year.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Local elevator is paying $2.85