beware of prices of cattle-newbie

[uscangus]

last week, i indicated that the countries in europe, called PIIGS (portugal, ireland, italy, greece, and spain) will cause consumer's retrechment in spendings. this will effect the global economy. the PIIGS have the same problem with mortgages leverages or equities and bubble bonds.
last three weeks, england announced that there are in recession again. greece and spain will probably not pay the austerity from the banks from IMF. today, the top 17 banks in Spain is in trouble and need security or cash. greece, the average person or citizen took money out of the savings and causing a run in the banks.
these global countries are intertwined in regard to equities,bonds, and treasuries. well, today, according to wall street, china last two quarters have been dwindling. the housing bubble is starting to manifest. i would not worry about the PIIGS in their problem. i would worry about the deflation of china consumer demands and the retraction of their economy. they will have domino effects in ASIA countries. since China is like Japan in the 80's like the world banks, their consumer buying power will retract. the China manufactures to slow down and goods will cause deflation. the consumers in the global countries will slow down. since china is vastly the producers for the global goods and provides jobs--the race to the bottoms, their new and dynamic demands of raw materials and commodities will slow downs. hence, their manufacture company will also slow the production and need of their current employees.
today, facebook did an IPO and did not raised the stocks as much with all the hypes from the market. europe problems rattled the global market today and in the future. watch out newbie in price elasticity of cattle prices since consumer are retracting.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Nice post. You raise some valid concerns.

 

[LauraleesFarm]

Very interesting.

 

[uscangus]

since oil prices have dropped from high of nearly 110 to 91 dollars per barrel, the macro economists have to adjust the current demand from the collapse in european economy and slow down in china (domino effect in other asians' countries). the commodities such as oil, raw materials, and basic staples (wheat, corn, and so on) will feel the effect. if you are waiting at the side line to increase your herds, wait a little longer unless we get major droughts in other countries or in mid-west and southern states.

 

[MarkM]

How would QE3 (potentially coupled with monetary easing by central banks worldwide) affect your thinking?

 

[uscangus]

How would QE3 (potentially coupled with monetary easing by central banks worldwide) affect your thinking?

Thanks Greece for super-low treasury yields-the yield of 10 year treasury hit a near -record low of 1.69% last week fear that Greece will abandon the euro which sent investors looking for a safe investments to stash their cash. the yield a record low in sept of 2011.
then, bond yields move opposite to price, meaning low yields reflect higher confidence in bond as evidence by higher prices.

uncertainty is what motivates people to buy Treasurys; uncertainty in Europe is sending investors selling stocks and commodities assets that do better amid of times of growth-------------hence in favor of US debts. it is still seen as one of the safest investments in the world---US Treasury. if you compare Europe problems to our problem in the US, it does not look so bad over here.

 

[uscangus]

Fed may prefer another twist to adding assets should growth slow or further sign of weakness or risks increase.
With Operation Twist, the Fed has sought to lower borrowing cost through purchases of longer term government debt. those purchases were offset by sales of shorter term debt. with maturity of extension of bonds which will set to expire in June, it is an effect to expand their balance sheet, knows as quantitive easing, and keeping the total size of Fed balance sheet unchanged. in return, lower the rate or easing in Q3. just my guess.

 

[uscangus]

According the German finance minister warns of 2 more years of global economic turmoil.
here the key, the German chancellor and fellow european leaders face pressure from the G-8 counterparts to do
more to quell the crisis after almots $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4 trillion was wiped from global equity markets this month amid of speculation that Greece will exit the euro. european stocks headed for their biggest declined since nov and investors concern that the crisis is worsening. I mean $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4 trillion dollars was wiped out this month. i am just an average who is trying to control my destination. last month, our news medial did not expanded and cover much how England went back to recession.

 

[uscangus]

Brace for more selling as investors are more likely to continue to bail out of stocks and continue to move in to US Treasuries and gold
in search for safety over Greece future.

also, China buyers are deferring raw material Cargos. since china consumers of thermal coal and iron, some buyers are defaulting on their contracts. it is the clearest sign yet of the impact of country economic slowdown on the global raw materials markets.

other key elements in China indicators of slow electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes, and disbursement of bank loans.

Soft commodities such as soybean and cotton have also seen customers defaulting in the past two weeks. As the world's main engine of commodities consumption, the country is particularly important for bulk commodities such as iron ores (used in steel making), and coal (which is used to fire power plants.). as a newbie, we need to know the cloud that could affect the supply and demand of cattle prices and keeping replacements.

 

[uscangus]

last Wed., the World bank announced that China is slowing down. since china is the largest raw materials, (iron and coals), and second largest oil consumption in the world, china largest manufacture companies are slowing down on production of ALUMINUM, alloys. when you get little exports of goods to europe, throught the world, and us consumers retrechment of spendings. the domino effects are the volumes of shipping cargos are seeing downward volumes. this downward turns will have an effect to other Asian countries, such livestock and dairies. watch out newbies where consumer spending will dropped.

 

[uscangus]

this week, the US Treasury sold 35 billion and the German sold another 2.5 billions of eurobonds to stabilize the market. currently this week, the people instead of the financial market in Greece and France are on the street and taking monies out of the bank, causing a run in the bank. our cable tv channels, such CNN or CNBC, will not report much and show people in the street and taking monies out of the bank in order to soften the damage in the financial sector. june 15 or 17, people of Greece will vote to exit or stay in the euro pact. if greece leave, you will see Italy, Spain, Iceland, and Portugal would like to change their agreement with IMF bank and its austerity. if that happen, we will see a slow down and correction in our market, causing a retrenchment of consumer spending. we may deflation or lower prices. watch out newbie.

 

[uscangus]

with european crisis occurring, watch your hat. if spain leaves before greece and if any euro countries leave the euro pact, it will affect the trade between ASIA and European's countries. China recently denied another stimulus to their economy. according to CEO of Bank of America, it will affect the lenders or banks when euro separate of their direct European assets' holdings and drag the global economy and prolong the crisis.

 

[3waycross]

Have you noticed that you seem to be talking to yourself?

 

[Kingfisher]

Have you noticed that you seem to be talking to yourself?

Yea.........but how did you hear about it?