Arthrogryposis Multiplex (AM) ??-?

[HerefordSire]

That would be all speculation, and as you are aware, the current state of the US was caused by speculation. :stop:

Speculation should be considered a portion of an overall investment strategy, especially to adapt to the AM numbers and percentages. I am very surprised noone on this board has published the information yet on this thread or any other thread. Maybe they have and I am not aware of it? As a side note, I snuck a view of Hereford registrations, and in the last three years alone, they are off about 50%, before they economy tanked. It would be nice to speculate whether Angus is on the verge of doing the same thing. If they are, it could be a good time to buy Angus after a three or four year dump. What do you think?

 

[RD-Sam]

I'm already ahead of you. :lol2: I should be going full steam by the time the market recovers. :cowboy:

 

[Frankie]

Do you have a link to a table showing the history of Angus registrations? If so, I can drop the number in an Excel spreadsheet and draw a chart and post it here if I have enough time. This could tell us more information faster such as the last time Angus peaked and bottom, etc. Are you sure it was the economy causing a lower number in 2008? Was there any other genetic issue reported prior to the close of the 2008 fiscal year or anything other than the economy in 2008? What date was AM first reported? Was there insider knowledge (big breeders or management for example) about this AM issue before the close of the fiscal year?

LOL. You don't have to bother; AAA keeps track of all that and shares it with their members on a regular basis. In 1968 Angus registrations peaked at 406,310. In 1978 only 222,608 were registered. Last year 333,766 were registered. So we're on our way back up.

The Gardiners first encountered AM in 1991. That was a potential diagnosis provided by renowned Kansas State University geneticist Horst Leipold, when the Gardiners brought a stillborn calf to him that had a bent and twisted spine.

Since then, the Gardiners have bred and raised about 27,000 calves. Eleven were stillborn and anatomically abnormal; six had no Precision in their pedigrees. The veterinarians and researchers consulted determined the likely cause was environmental or disease-related.

It wasn't until August 2008 that Beever told the Gardiners he believed the cause was AM and likely stemmed from Precision. The Gardiners quickly provided semen and DNA on Precision descendents. More analysis was done.

By Nov. 3, AAA provided members a list of AI sires and their AM genotypes. Beever also enlisted the help of bull studs to help validate the DNA test via the sires they represent. They understandably wanted to know as much as possible as soon as possible to inform their customers.

All told, 761 Angus sires were tested; 60 bulls turned up carriers, all directly related to Precision 1680 and 9J9. That 8% says nothing about the actual gene frequency within the breed. Anecdotally, however, it suggests the gene isn't nearly as pervasive as some may have feared.

By Nov. 3, confidence was running high that a commercial test would be available within 45 days.

"With DNA technology, we've gone from not having a test two months ago, to having the tool we need to manage this deleterious gene," says Doug Frank, ABS global beef product manager.

There's more here: http://beefmagazine.com/genetics/1201-curly-calf-issue/

 

[Frankie]

That would be all speculation, and as you are aware, the current state of the US was caused by speculation. :stop:

Speculation should be considered a portion of an overall investment strategy, especially to adapt to the AM numbers and percentages. I am very surprised noone on this board has published the information yet on this thread or any other thread. Maybe they have and I am not aware of it? As a side note, I snuck a view of Hereford registrations, and in the last three years alone, they are off about 50%, before they economy tanked. It would be nice to speculate whether Angus is on the verge of doing the same thing. If they are, it could be a good time to buy Angus after a three or four year dump. What do you think?

How many Herefords were registered last year?

 

[robert]

As a side note, I snuck a view of Hereford registrations, and in the last three years alone, they are off about 50%, before they economy tanked. It would be nice to speculate whether Angus is on the verge of doing the same thing. If they are, it could be a good time to buy Angus after a three or four year dump. What do you think?[/i]

Reports of the death of Angus are greatly exagerated

Most bull sales I've seen this past spring have actually averaged higher than last year with stronger demand for Angus bulls. Female sales have been a little off (more so in some cases) but generally the Angus business seems to be at the very least steady.

 

[HerefordSire]

That would be all speculation, and as you are aware, the current state of the US was caused by speculation. :stop:

Speculation should be considered a portion of an overall investment strategy, especially to adapt to the AM numbers and percentages. I am very surprised noone on this board has published the information yet on this thread or any other thread. Maybe they have and I am not aware of it? As a side note, I snuck a view of Hereford registrations, and in the last three years alone, they are off about 50%, before they economy tanked. It would be nice to speculate whether Angus is on the verge of doing the same thing. If they are, it could be a good time to buy Angus after a three or four year dump. What do you think?

How many Herefords were registered last year?

58,376 according to the following document...

http://www.hereford.org/Acrobat/Perf/S09_Trend.pdf

 

[HerefordSire]

Do you have a link to a table showing the history of Angus registrations? If so, I can drop the number in an Excel spreadsheet and draw a chart and post it here if I have enough time. This could tell us more information faster such as the last time Angus peaked and bottom, etc. Are you sure it was the economy causing a lower number in 2008? Was there any other genetic issue reported prior to the close of the 2008 fiscal year or anything other than the economy in 2008? What date was AM first reported? Was there insider knowledge (big breeders or management for example) about this AM issue before the close of the fiscal year?

LOL. You don't have to bother; AAA keeps track of all that and shares it with their members on a regular basis. In 1968 Angus registrations peaked at 406,310. In 1978 only 222,608 were registered. Last year 333,766 were registered. So we're on our way back up.

I don't mind Frankie. I am projecting another leg down with the economy between now and the rest of the year. After I create, view, and project the Angus registrations, I should be able to project future Angus bottoms and tops within past peak and bottom trend lines. Together with the AM influenced registration numbers and the encomic influenced numbers, I would guess the coming bottom should come close to a multi-decade trend line, wherever that is. I wouldn't think it is headed up.

 

[HerefordSire]

As a side note, I snuck a view of Hereford registrations, and in the last three years alone, they are off about 50%, before they economy tanked. It would be nice to speculate whether Angus is on the verge of doing the same thing. If they are, it could be a good time to buy Angus after a three or four year dump. What do you think?[/i]

Reports of the death of Angus are greatly exagerated

Most bull sales I've seen this past spring have actually averaged higher than last year with stronger demand for Angus bulls. Female sales have been a little off (more so in some cases) but generally the Angus business seems to be at the very least steady.

Based upon your reply, registration numbers ending fiscal year 2009 for Angus could be about the same as 2008. Is that a fair statement of what you are expecting?

 

[robert]

I figure about 300,000 to 310,000 for '09 which is about a 10% drop on '08 as a result of both the economy and genetic defects, assuming the dna tests are all online within the next month or two then that number will likely increase. Although some breeds have done a decent job on both breed improvement (usefulness as opposed to just numbers) and marketing there is a big gap between Angus and the rest, there really is no 'heir apparent'. Besides, Angus breeders are Angus breeders and the blood runs black! (me included )

 

[angus9259]

Some forums are dfominated by specific breeds. Those forums would naturally hash over and over topics that are important to them. On forums like this were there isn;t any one particular breed that is really dominated be seedstock producers one would expect it to be discussed and pondered then for people to move on. Contrary to what some people believe, the sky is not falling.

Indeed.

 

[HerefordSire]

I figure about 300,000 to 310,000 for '09 which is about a 10% drop on '08 as a result of both the economy and genetic defects, assuming the dna tests are all online within the next month or two then that number will likely increase. Although some breeds have done a decent job on both breed improvement (usefulness as opposed to just numbers) and marketing there is a big gap between Angus and the rest, there really is no 'heir apparent'. Besides, Angus breeders are Angus breeders and the blood runs black! (me included )

Very interesting robert. TY.

Since I am unable to locate the Angus registration table info, based upon the following numbers which were previously posted and if they are accurate, the recent annual peak the year before last could be the top of a downward sloping trend channel going back to 1968. By projecting a parallel downward sloping bottom trendline back to the last valley in 1978, the future low could be 56% lower than the recent peak. I wouldn't make any buying or selling decisions based upon this, but I would if I had the necessary registration info. Also, it is not guaranteed that prices drop when registrations drop. It could be the opposite. Angus, even with the AM scare, could begin to receive higher prices as the result of lower supply near the bottom of the channel. The AM scare could guarantee a registration peak that will not be surpassed until another 40 or so years.

I am not sure where Frankie is getting the notion that Angus registrations are headed back up after the AM genetic defect discovery and the worst recession since the great depression, but I would encourage all you Angus breeders and ranchers to ask her questions of what she sees.

In 1968 Angus registrations peaked at 406,310. In 1978 only 222,608 were registered. Last year 333,766 were registered. So we're on our way back up.

 

[RD-Sam]

Did your computer factor in the introduction of CAB? :lol2:

 

[robert]

The 1968 number is interesting not because it was the historic high but because it was set at a time when there were essentially only 3 mainstream beef breeds (Angus (red & black), Hereford and Shorthorn) in a much larger national cowherd, in fact the high from 2 years ago relatively speaking should be considered higher due to the smaller cowherd and greater competition from other breeds.

I would expect the commercial cow herd to shrink a bit more yet, increasing competition between breeds for a diminishing market, though I wouldn't discount the idea that Angus could take not only a larger share of the commercial bull market but also increase the registry as well.

 

[HerefordSire]

Did your computer factor in the introduction of CAB? :lol2:

I did not need computer because I do not have more than four dispersed points to consider.

The trendlines theoretically encapsulate all events. The channel represents very strong forces. Usually, a measured statistic stays in the channel. Occasionally, the statistic will penetrate the channel and establish a new channel and sometmes a new high or a new low. This is called a breakout and a new trend is established. Notice how many years it took to set the bottom in the late 60s and 70s after setting a new high....almost a decade, which would put us about 7-8 more years or around the year 2017 if a high was recently established.

 

[RD-Sam]

Did you figure in all the population curves and the economy affecting that? How do you plan to calculate what the economy is going to do? Damn speculators, I hope they don't start speculating beef like they did the housing market, we are all doomed if they do! :stop:

 

[HerefordSire]

The 1968 number is interesting not because it was the historic high but because it was set at a time when there were essentially only 3 mainstream beef breeds (Angus (red & black), Hereford and Shorthorn) in a much larger national cowherd, in fact the high from 2 years ago relatively speaking should be considered higher due to the smaller cowherd and greater competition from other breeds.

I would expect the commercial cow herd to shrink a bit more yet, increasing competition between breeds for a diminishing market, though I wouldn't discount the idea that Angus could take not only a larger share of the commercial bull market but also increase the registry as well.

Very good point robert.

I call this relative strength. The relative strength of Angus the year before last, is probably much higher than it has ever been, even though the registration numbers are less. This channel should be inspected also.

Sounds like you see a continuance of existing trends. In my experience, without viewing the data in a graphic format, we are likely spinning our wheels, but I have no Angus investment position. Do you know how many registered Angus are AM carriers?

 

[HerefordSire]

Did you figure in all the population curves and the economy affecting that? How do you plan to calculate what the economy is going to do? be nice speculators, I hope they don't start speculating beef like they did the housing market, we are all doomed if they do! :stop:

Theoretically, all known data is encapsulated in the measured statistic. If the measured statistic is AM carriers since 1991, for example, then we would have seen a major breakout recently if we were able to obtain all the current known carriers. After the breakout occurred, a new channel, with top and bottom parallel trend lines can be drawn. The breakout of the old channel is significant and can be used to predict future measured statistic behavior such as resistance now becomes support.

Speculating is good...greed is good....usually, when the economy in which we operate is capitalism. If we a converting to socialism, then you could be correct, speculating is bad and greed is bad. Spiritually, speculating and greed are likely bad.

 

[Brandonm22]

I call this relative strength. The relative strength of Angus the year before last, is probably much higher than it has ever been, even though the registration numbers are less. This channel should be inspected also.

Sounds like you see a continuance of existing trends. In my experience, without viewing the data in a graphic format, we are likely spinning our wheels, but I have no Angus investment position.

The chart we need to see is 1) number of beef brood cows over time 2) total number of beef cattle registrations over time and 3) total number of Angus registrations over time. Until last year, Angus has increased registrations while most other beef breeds have declined since ~1992. Meanwhile total cow numbers have declined. By 2007, 51% of all registrations in of beef cattle in the country were Angus. For Angus to grow their market further, the nation's commercial cow herd is going to either have to go to more straightbred Angus or total cow numbers are going to have to reverse and start increasing.
Unless the industry as a whole picks up, I don't like the position that an individual Angus breeders finds himself to be in right now.

 

[Frankie]

The chart we need to see is 1) number of beef brood cows over time 2) total number of beef cattle registrations over time and 3) total number of Angus registrations over time. Until last year, Angus has increased registrations while most other beef breeds have declined since ~1992. Meanwhile total cow numbers have declined. By 2007, 51% of all registrations in of beef cattle in the country were Angus. For Angus to grow their market further, the nation's commercial cow herd is going to either have to go to more straightbred Angus or total cow numbers are going to have to reverse and start increasing.
Unless the industry as a whole picks up, I don't like the position that an individual Angus breeders finds himself to be in right now.

I think that our registered Angus cows will do fine as commercial cattle if it comes to that. We'd send the calves through a retained ownership program. I believe we'd make money on them. The clean up bull we bought has good ultrasound data and gained well over 4 lbs a day on feed test. We wouldn't make as much as we have selling registered bulls in the past, but it would be a heck of a lot easier.

 

[alexfarms]

angus9259-

This entire thread here has been blown completely out of proportion! Let's just back off from all of the vituperative rhetoric, instigated primarily by Frankie following my first post, take a deep breath and look at this AM situation in a realistic light..

I stated the seeming lack of current and immediate discussion relating to AM, to stimulate thinking on the part of a lot of breeders who don't really understand the problem - which is most of us. The AAA is doing an admirable job of following up on the details - better than any other Association would do under similar circumstances that I can think of right now. I am well aware that CattleToday had discussed this case adequately - up to a few days before I made that post, and it seemed to me that everyone just sort of dropped interest in the entire trouble. I was merely trying to stimulate some thinking on the part of breeders so as to emphasize the importance of what had happened to a lot of cattle breeders. There are a lot of breeders who have seen their life's work, business, planning, and entire future perhaps going down the toilet! Stimulating their options in an attempt to resurrect their lives and future in the cattle business was my intent - NOT to give ANYONE the expedient opportunity to be critical, sarcastic, or cynical. But they will find a way if that is their wont. Therefore, let's turn it off, let the AAA do their thing, let breeders figure out their own actions to take in light of their own involvement in the trouble, and go on with our lives!

There have been many fine papers, reports and comments regarding the AMF and AMC genetics, and the consequences pertaining thereto if knowledge is not acquired and utilized as to how to manage the problem. Common , ordinary horse sense should prevail in making decisions as to whether one should use a bull that is AMC and the possibilities resulting therefrom. If breeders cannot see the forest for the trees, they will just have to either learn the facts, or suffer the consequences.

I tried to stimulate continuing discussion - NOT start a sarcastic war.

There has been some pretty deep discourse and debate on "Advantage Cattle Services" Forum, by some very informed people on this subject. You might want to check that group out for some interesting points of view.

DOC HARRIS

I think you were right in your original post on this thread, DOC. It seems to me most Angus breeders are looking to the AAA and the dna technologies to solve these problems. If I was going to bet, I would bet the future of the Angus breed will belong to those who "take the bull by the horns" and solve the problems in their own herds themselves.