Another recession?

[shaz]

You guys think another recession is on the way?

Man, I do. We're seeing a massive contraction in new vehicle sales.

How bout your end?

I go into a lot of factories that make auto parts and they are running as hard as they can. Most working their employees 6 and 7 days a week. Makes me wonder who is buying all these cars, 1.2 millon built in KY last year.

I don't think the economy is much different than it was 4 or 5 years ago, although the stock market has improved. Does not seem like the average person is much better off, cost of living has went up in my opinion.

That will stop right about now. Check those factories again. They're doing nothing.

 

[shaz]

We never got out of the first one

Bingo!

Ditto that.
Got to admit I'm surprised by the market going up like it has.

Yeah, I don't get that either

 

[Ryder]

The stock market has came back to a degree. I think it's artificially inflated. I look for the bottom to fall out of it. In what seems like a lifetime ago I was a loan officer at a bank. Seemed like people would buy cars no matter what was going on.

I sure don't disagree.
Obummer and the fed will pump it up as long as possible.
Sooner or later reality (debt) is going to catch up and then put your hard hat on and watch out for the crash. :hide:

 

[Howdyjabo]

Things are bad here for the middle class,and most of the upper middle class is now struggling to maintain middle class standings(I think most are in debt up to their eyeballs). And looks like they will get even worse.
Theres not much left to run the local economy, what is left is hanging by their nails. Towns and Counties are broke, they lost half of their property taxes(either gone or can't pay). Most people are challenging their property appraisals this year and will win.
The businesses that paid for most of the counties water left-- so no they are saying they have to double water rates to stay afloat.
Bankruptcy and Foreclosures , closed up shops and businesses, For Sale(land, cars, stuff) signs are up everywhere you look.Half the people I know lost their jobs. Last year I couldn't give away dead trees for firewood, this year I have a list of people needing it.
It has gotten soo bad that a 100 yr old church had to close its doors, and several others are struggling.
Land has gotten cheaper around here, theres soo much on the market and no buyers.
The High School buses are full (for the first time ever) and the parking lots are empty(its bad when teenagers can't find the money to drive to school around here).
Its soo bad even the Mexicans have moved out. And when you go to a fast food place the workers are all adults and not hispanic any more.

 

[tsmaxx47]

Our area is probably doing better than its done in a number of years... This is cattle and wheat country- and the prices for both have been good...And we've had some good moisture years with last year seeing some record bumper wheat crops... An easy winter- with coulees filled with snow showing there will be some spring runoff have folks optimistic for this year...

Being on the Bakken- and just on the edge of where the current drilling is- employment is booming with good paying jobs- with most surrounding counties in the 3-4% unemployment rate... One of the bigger local negative factors is trying to find help- with places like McDonalds offering bonus incentives for working for them for certain time periods... A lot of folks with a skill (mechanic, plumbers, electricians, truck drivers, law enforcement, etc) jumped for the higher paying oilfield jobs-- so now we have a shortage locally...

same thing going on in south texas to an extent..........

 

[Stocker Steve]

You guys think another recession is on the way?

There is always another recession on the way. Harder question is it when and where will it hit.
Factory jobs are still going overseas to avoid US taxes. Labor costs are not the issue. The remaining factory work has slowed recently. Folks that want to work a lot usually head for the ND oil fields.
The very very few folks that farm a lot of ground are doing well. Livestock not so much. Dairy is hurting, and a grass finishing buddy who is a numbers guy is really concerned about the beef gross margin going down.
Government spending of money we don't have is propping up the banks and driving the stock market. Investors are doing OK right now but the low inflation rates tell you that most folks are not optimistic enough to chase purchases.
Construction has picked up a bit. Some new, but a lot of remodels and updates paid for with cash.
Big trend is we have become a colony again. :shock: Folks that are exporting food or minerals (and selling oil services or JD tractors) are doing great. The rest struggle to buy imported factory goods at Wal Mart.

 

[plumber_greg]

Hate to be different, but I'm opmistic if OB don't screw it up. I having to pull in the reins a bit on work and turn things down. Haven't seen this much building around here, maybe ever. DNR has decided to close small commercial lagoons, go to subsurface disposal of waste, we're one of the few qualified to put in and advise, that makes a whole 'nother business out of it.
I work around a lake most times. High end houses, the money is coming from somewhere. Mostly small business owners with cash. They feel good real estate is the place to put their money, so they will invest a million and more in a lot and house.
However, the last recession saw business pick up. People that didn't really work hard at their business, didn't know any better than to cut prices trying to find work, never really grossed enough, etc. went out of business. I may have picked up some of their work.
I realize I'm a lucky man, always have been, but I think people are making a mistake sitting around waiting for bad things to happen. How many times have we all thought, "I wish I would have had the courage to have done that 5 years ago, I'd be sitting pretty now." Just my thoughts, gs

 

[tom4018]

You guys think another recession is on the way?

Man, I do. We're seeing a massive contraction in new vehicle sales.

How bout your end?

I go into a lot of factories that make auto parts and they are running as hard as they can. Most working their employees 6 and 7 days a week. Makes me wonder who is buying all these cars, 1.2 millon built in KY last year.

I don't think the economy is much different than it was 4 or 5 years ago, although the stock market has improved. Does not seem like the average person is much better off, cost of living has went up in my opinion.

That will stop right about now. Check those factories again. They're doing nothing.

So far it has not slowed them a bit, been it some of them this week. I don't understand where all these cars and trucks go. One factory I was in a week or so ago make a throttle body part, over 5000 a day.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I think the take away from this thread is that the economy, like politics, is all local.

 

[TexasBred]

I think the take away from this thread is that the economy, like politics, is all local.

With over 20 million unemployed and 47% on the gov't tit we are affected....in one way or another. We may not be able to see or feel it directly but we are paying for this. Gov't gets that money from US. Most just got hit with a new tax...not much but will add up to to a pretty good chunk at the end of the year. That is money pulled out of the local economy and sent to DC. Unemployment went up again this morning. Wonder what the "real" number really is??

 

[Jogeephus]

I've already noticed several little hidden taxes come into play on payroll and a few other things. And I thought Opie said ..... well nevermind.

 

[Limomike]

Opie might have said this :

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job.

Its what I always heard anyway.
He77, you can ask 100 different economists about if we are in a recession, and get 100 different explanations as to why we are or arent.