After the ethanol boom ?

[Stocker Steve]

I saw an article last week that covered the grain price booms of WWI, WWII, 70s, and then the ethanol based boom. Kind of a pattern there. The author did not see renewed high grain prices on the horizon. Maybe in the 2040s ?
In contrast, some ag web sites keep pumping up "the hope" that someone else will be drought ed out and then grains will rally, again. I am sure this will happen at some point - - but I just don't see going back to $7 corn as a reasonable expectation. Meanwhile, the experts at SGF have advised that we should be retaining all heifers (just a couple years late with this nugget) because that is where the most $$$ are. :nod:
I had an irrigated crop farmer tell me last week that his only profitable cash crop this year was alfalfa, and that he could hang on because he was not renting and all his land was paid for... Are you seeing farmers in your area walk away from the round up recipe to covert "crop land" to forage, or are they just hunkering down and trying to cash flow?

 

[Bigfoot]

I've seen quit a few acres of crp ground bought out, and put in row crops. Seen even more pasture turned over for crops. Still not seeing any go back in to beef production. I seriously doubt that any of the row crop farmers in my area will ever raise cattle. Might see a few cattlemen expand, but I have no idea where the acres will come from to do it.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I've seen quite a few acres of crp ground bought out, and put in row crops. Seen even more pasture turned over for crops.

CRP was going into corn in the past. But, I had a guy come by last month and beg me to rent his run down CRP ground. They would not renew his contract and he wanted some cash rent. I ran the numbers and told him no thanks - - that I would loose $$$. Someone else may pick it up for the longggg haul, but I am much better off spending my time building cross fence. :cowboy:

 

[Bigfoot]

I didn't know the FSA was getting picky about the farms in the program. I figured if it ever once qualified, that it alway qualified. Either way, converting it to pasture would be expensive. Not to mention fencing etc. It'd be tough to cash rent, improve pasture, build fence, buy cows, and turn a profit. That's a young mans game. I'm to old for that. I guess the other farmers in my area are to.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I didn't know the FSA was getting picky about the farms in the program.

Acres allowed is down in the new farm bill.
They fiddle with the priorities all the time.
Some areas get preference for butterflies or ducks or a key water shed or ...

 

[Nesikep]

around here, all the farmers that have been doing it a while (generations?) just keep chugging along the way they always have... then there's the newcomers that aren't expected to hold on to properties for a long time that invest in grapes, etc, put up expensive infrastructure on mortgage, etc. We're somewhere in the middle, we still try and improve our infrastructures, but we refuse to take up loans to do it.

 

[Jogeephus]

Clearing new ground like there is no tomorrow here. Don't see any fences just pivot after pivot.

 

[Hook]

Lots of cleaning going on here. For more housing and shopping centers :bang:

 

[Stocker Steve]

Clearing new ground like there is no tomorrow here. Don't see any fences just pivot after pivot.

We see some of that here with the integrated potato producers. They own the land and the irrigation company and the John Deere dealership and the processing plant...

What are they planting in Georgia?

 

[AllForage]

Rents are too high for crop profits here, but dairies will pay to spread shyt. I also have a kraut factory near by that keeps rent up there. Will be interesting what happens to the 100-500 acre crop guys.

 

[Jogeephus]

Clearing new ground like there is no tomorrow here. Don't see any fences just pivot after pivot.

We see some of that here with the integrated potato producers. They own the land and the irrigation company and the John Deere dealership and the processing plant...

What are they planting in Georgia?

Cotton. I don't think the average farmer knows how to plant anything else. We also have some nontraditional farm investment in the form of black berries and blue berries also now that its no longer illegal to make wine we are seeing growth in the vineyard industry and wineries. One farm near me is planning on establishing 5000 acres of blueberries alone. Bill Gates bought a pile of land here and he is growing vegetables. There are more of these corporate trust farms going in buying up large blocks of land of paper company land the paper companies are dumping after the government changed the tax rules on forestland. Also have some olive groves and lots of land going into pecan production. Not much corn being planted.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I am glad that not everyone is using the round up recipe, but what do they rotate with cotton?
Here, they can only grow potatoes every third or fourth year.

 

[Jogeephus]

I am glad that not everyone is using the round up recipe, but what do they rotate with cotton?
Here, they can only grow potatoes every third or fourth year.

What do they rotate? Seems like its cotton and Roundup Ready cotton at that. Hate to bring you down on that. Monsanto rules it seems. With the technology fees you might just say farmers are the modern day sharecroppers for Monsanto.

When and if they do rotate its normally peanuts.

Cotton is down this year but you can't tell it by what they are planting but we are getting a lot more produce farmers here. I see problems with that because we'll have more illegals. Then we'll get more immigration officers who will eat lunch with the illegals while the politicians pat themselves on the back talking about how they are fixing the problem. I just sit and scratch my head and watch in bewilderment.

 

[Williamsv]

In my area of Middle GA we are seeing more pecan trees set out. Blueberries are being grown down the road from me on land recently cleared. Last year a lot of watermelons were planted. I have not seen any this year. Most farmers will plant peanuts and cotton. We have had peanuts planted on our farm for years. A new farmer this year and he has planted corn that is looking great and will plant cotton. He grew green beans for the market last year and did well with them. More vegetable crops are being grown here and we have olives being grown in the county north of us. Watermelons and cantaloupes have always been big crops in our area, but as I said have not seen them around here this year.
A lot of crop land has been planted in pine trees including part of my grandfather's farm. My mother is the only one of the three children that kept the farm in cultivation.

 

[Stocker Steve]

What do they rotate? Seems like its cotton and Roundup Ready cotton at that. Hate to bring you down on that. Monsanto rules it seems. With the technology fees you might just say farmers are the modern day sharecroppers for Monsanto.

The roundup recipe with subsidized crop insurance really appeals to some folks. I am bucking the trend here by seeding down land every year. I am using a cover crop + bale grazing/silage corn/sod rotation to build soil. Initially it took me 8 year to build up 1% of organic matter but things are accelerating now.

 

[Jogeephus]

I tend to buck their system too. Turned down $75/acre for some wildlife nonsense. The animal they were wanting to protect will be there with or without their check and I'm surely not going to raise the flag or put a target on my back.

A lot of crop land has been planted in pine trees including part of my grandfather's farm. My mother is the only one of the three children that kept the farm in cultivation.

Many of the cropland acres planted here in trees under the CRP have hence been given away at salvage prices and pushed up and put back in cotton. There was a reason these acres were set out in trees but to some an acre is an acre.

 

[SJB]

I noticed quite a bit more tobacco here the last year or two than the last 10 years.

 

[bball]

Clearing new ground like there is no tomorrow here. Don't see any fences just pivot after pivot.

+1

 

[Stocker Steve]

One of the three large local crop guys is now applying for EQIP.
A few older guys are talking about selling out since they can not make $$$ with a 100 to 200 acres of grain and some meadow hay.
The top bid for this moderate sized farms with an old set of building has often been Amish - - who then start up an organic dairies.