Which way to go

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Dave

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Who has a good crystal ball here? So for the last three years I have been buying heifers in the late winter/ early spring, breeding them and selling them for delivery in October. It has worked real well. Nation wide herd rebuilding caused bred heifers to sell high. Trouble is that I wasn't the only one who saw this opportunity. Now there seems to be a glut of bred heifers on the market. Last weeks Superior Select Female sale had 101 lots of bred heifers. Only 44 of those lots sold and the top was about $2400. The heifers are a lot cheaper and don't seem to be moving.
So I have been thinking about going back to my old stand by of buying older bred cows, calving them out, and selling all (cows and calves) of them in the early fall. There is a stock cow sale the first of December where I am pretty certain a person will be able to buy truck loads good solid older cows for one bid over kill price. This model always made me money but calving out the cows is more hassle and work than the heifer deal. But in this market it is less risk.
Hmmmmm, I have about 5 weeks to decide which way to go. This staying one step ahead of the market isn't as easy as one would think. A crystal ball would sure come in handy about now.
 
The sale yard where the stock cow sale will take place listed their top butcher cow at 75 cents last week. That puts a 1200 pound cow at $900. And like I said a person will be able to buy pot loads of cows for one bid over kill price. Between the drought and the fires there are a lot of cattlemen who are short on range. Older(8, 9, 10 year old cows) spring calving cows will be plentiful and cheap.
 
i have been watching sales here and best cow they had brought 1200 bucks most were 700-800 bucks and pairs were 1200-1500 here
 
I think that the aged cows are the way now since the prices have dropped and everyone and his brother seem to have kept heifers to do this. I have always thought that a person could do decent and wouldn't have to feed much hay depending on when bought with the older breds. In my area at the last special cow sale I guy brought bred heifers 2nd stage bl/bwf and the top bid was 2000 and he no saled everything and took them back home. Some were decent and some probably shouldn't have been kept and bred. They are having a special bred heifer sale this Friday will have to see how that goes.
 
with the high # of bred heifers hitting the market.the buyers can be picky about the type of heifers that they buy.
 
I would buy bred cows and put a cheaper bull in with them. Might get someone doing what your doing to buy them when you sell them. I don't think there's any way that the cows are not a safer way to go.
 

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