When will prices peak?

[dixiedrifter]

I'll be honest I really haven't done that much research, but my gut is telling me the cattle market may be reaching a peak sometime within the next 24 months, possibly sooner. Beef prices are just too high as compared to chicken and pork. Coupled with cheaper grain prices and higher reproductive rates amongst those animals I can't see beef market going too much higher as demand will eventually start to taper off when consumers shift over to other types of cheaper meat... I mean hamburger in my neck of the woods is $3.69 a pound for 80% lean and port tenderloin along with boneless skinless chicken breasts are less than that.

What do you guys think?

 

[Bigfoot]

I went in a butcher shop yesterday, to get biscuits. I know thats crazy, but there good. A lady in front of me got two steaks, and gave almost $40 for the two. It made me hungry for steak, so I defrosted two from the freezer. There may be no end to what people will pay. IDK

 

[bigbull338]

with the bad droughts that can happen and hang on.plus older cattlemen selling out and cashing out prices should stay up for the next 20yrs or more.look at the drought in CA forcing hay and feed sky high as well as cattlemen cutting their herds to the bone.

 

[tom4018]

I went in a butcher shop yesterday, to get biscuits. I know thats crazy, but there good. A lady in front of me got two steaks, and gave almost $40 for the two. It made me hungry for steak, so I defrosted two from the freezer. There may be no end to what people will pay. IDK

Hampton's?

 

[highgrit]

A quality seafood market in Tequesta FL. has fresh fish for sale. All fresh fish is $30.00 a pound and up. My mother in law gave $37.50 a pound for fresh gag grouper. And we get $6.00 a pound whole off the boat. And people are standing in line to buy seafood during the tourists season.

 

[Hook]

A quality seafood market in Tequesta FL. has fresh fish for sale. All fresh fish is $30.00 a pound and up. My mother in law gave $37.50 a pound for fresh gag grouper. And we get $6.00 a pound whole off the boat. And people are standing in line to buy seafood during the tourists season.

That's nuts. Good sashimi quality tuna is 20/lb retail, and I can get it at 7/lb wholesale. These nmfs closures are only driving price through the roof. I'm thinking it's time to become illegal.

 

[Williamsv]

People will keep paying high prices for beef just like they do for everything else that they want. Money does not seem to be a problem for most people these days. So I hope beef prices stay up. I will soon have some pretty ones ready to go.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

It's hard to say where the top is. Fats hit a all time record high of 170$ yesterday at the CME. Hard to think there much more room for improvement in this market, but I said the same thing 4 months ago.

In October of 2008 5wt steers wet bringing about 80cwt, yesterday they brought up to 290cwt. I feel safe in saying we can't see that kind of improvement over the next 6 years.

 

[Bigfoot]

I went in a butcher shop yesterday, to get biscuits. I know thats crazy, but there good. A lady in front of me got two steaks, and gave almost $40 for the two. It made me hungry for steak, so I defrosted two from the freezer. There may be no end to what people will pay. IDK

Hampton's?

Yes. I shoulda said slaughter house, but it sounded less apatizing.

 

[fitz]

I'll be honest I really haven't done that much research, but my gut is telling me the cattle market may be reaching a peak sometime within the next 24 months, possibly sooner. Beef prices are just too high as compared to chicken and pork. Coupled with cheaper grain prices and higher reproductive rates amongst those animals I can't see beef market going too much higher as demand will eventually start to taper off when consumers shift over to other types of cheaper meat... I mean hamburger in my neck of the woods is $3.69 a pound for 80% lean and port tenderloin along with boneless skinless chicken breasts are less than that.

What do you guys think?

There was a small article in the Register on a survey done by OSU. It centered around consumer willingness to pay (WTP).
It listed the following WTP:

6.75 per lb. for steak
4.92 for chicken breast
4.12 for ground beef
3.67 for pork chops
2.34 for ham
2.22 for chicken wings

fitz

 

[kenny thomas]

It's hard to say where the top is. Fats hit a all time record high of 170$ yesterday at the CME. Hard to think there much more room for improvement in this market, but I said the same thing 4 months ago.

In October of 2008 5wt steers wet bringing about 80cwt, yesterday they brought up to 290cwt. I feel safe in saying we can't see that kind of improvement over the next 6 years.

Our Livestock Association is having a meeting next week and we invited a speaker from Farm Bureau to talk to us about price protection. At the current prices it makes sense to me to have some "insurance". I thought the high was a year ago and said I would never give 2.00 a lb for calves. Now I am bidding over 3.00 and still not getting much of the size I want.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

It's hard to say where the top is. Fats hit a all time record high of 170$ yesterday at the CME. Hard to think there much more room for improvement in this market, but I said the same thing 4 months ago.

In October of 2008 5wt steers wet bringing about 80cwt, yesterday they brought up to 290cwt. I feel safe in saying we can't see that kind of improvement over the next 6 years.

Our Livestock Association is having a meeting next week and we invited a speaker from Farm Bureau to talk to us about price protection. At the current prices it makes sense to me to have some "insurance". I thought the high was a year ago and said I would never give 2.00 a lb for calves. Now I am bidding over 3.00 and still not getting much of the size I want.

Yep, and try 4.20$ here for a good light 3wt steer.

 

[kenny thomas]

I must need a sharper pencil because at 4.20 my pencil says I will loose my azz. And thats if it dont get sick. Can you imagine loosing one that cost that much. I will just let the grass grow I guess. I am kinda short on hay so thats a good excuse not to buy.

 

[tom4018]

It's hard to say where the top is. Fats hit a all time record high of 170$ yesterday at the CME. Hard to think there much more room for improvement in this market, but I said the same thing 4 months ago.

In October of 2008 5wt steers wet bringing about 80cwt, yesterday they brought up to 290cwt. I feel safe in saying we can't see that kind of improvement over the next 6 years.

Our Livestock Association is having a meeting next week and we invited a speaker from Farm Bureau to talk to us about price protection. At the current prices it makes sense to me to have some "insurance". I thought the high was a year ago and said I would never give 2.00 a lb for calves. Now I am bidding over 3.00 and still not getting much of the size I want.

Yep, and try 4.20$ here for a good light 3wt steer.

Wow, amazes me the price difference from here. $3.11 was about the highest reported here on 3 weight steers.

 

[kenny thomas]

3.45 was the high here this week but thats too much for me.

 

[Nesikep]

Here prices have fallen a little from what seemed to be the high about 3 weeks ago... 5 wts were about 2.80 in early september, up to $3 about 3 weeks ago, and back down to $2.80ish now.. I think it might drop slowly until the hardest part of winter passes, then prices will probably pick up again.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

Yep, and try 4.20$ here for a good light 3wt steer.

Wow, amazes me the price difference from here. $3.11 was about the highest reported here on 3 weight steers.

That's exactly why I come over your way to buy cattle.

 

[greybeard]

6.75 per lb. for steak
4.92 for chicken breast
4.12 for ground beef
3.67 for pork chops
2.34 for ham
2.22 for chicken wings

fitz

Those prices have already been surpassed. Been months since I saw a good steak cost less than $7/lb-a lot of months.

 

[Dale L]

We bought six heifer last fall to add to the herd. They weighed between 400 and 700 lbs. We gave 750 a piece for them. When you averaged everything out it was about 1.35 per lb. We were reluctant to pay that then but looking at it now it should pay. All six bred on the first breeding by our bull and should start calving in late Feb. The point of this is that I can't believe the price jump in one year. Those calves would be almost double that this year. I wish my grandpa was still around. He has only been gone for six years but I don't think he would have ever believed that cattle would be this high. I was looking at some records from the 90's and heifers sold for .58-.62 and steers were around .75-.80. I sold a Grand Champion feeder calf at the fair in 1990 that weighed 600lbs. for 1.00 a lb. We have been eating more venison also. It sure is hard to eat a beef yourself when they are bringing these prices!

 

[tom4018]

Yep, and try 4.20$ here for a good light 3wt steer.

Wow, amazes me the price difference from here. $3.11 was about the highest reported here on 3 weight steers.

That's exactly why I come over your way to buy cattle.

How far over this way do you normally come? I know you go to Ledbetter some, thought you mention the Crossville sale. Do you hit any others over this way?