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Jogeephus

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With cattle inventories at their lowest in years and cost of production being at the highest in years, record prices for retail beef when do you think calf prices will turn around?
 

dun

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Jogeephus":20vvdcyo said:
With cattle inventories at their lowest in years and cost of production being at the highest in years, record prices for retail beef when do you think calf prices will turn around?

A couple of days after I sell mine
 

redcowsrule33

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dun":zlw4nseg said:
Jogeephus":zlw4nseg said:
With cattle inventories at their lowest in years and cost of production being at the highest in years, record prices for retail beef when do you think calf prices will turn around?

A couple of days after I sell mine

Couldn't say it any better.

Probably right before they decide to slaughter the 300,000 milk cows the dairy industry needs to get rid of.
 

bigbull338

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i think the calf prices are slowly turning around.when the feedlots get pretty empty.they will have to start buying calves to fill their pens.
 

grannysoo

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Probably not until after the dairy industry settles down. There's a lot of cows hitting the market from the dairy people and still many more to come.
 

mnmtranching

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I'm going to say it doesn't look good as far as a big jump in prices. Prices for feeders and fats should be a little better in the last half of 09. The big problem is we're "the producers" are at the bottom and everybody else involved in the cattle industry figures in a profit. At our expense. People still love beef and eat a lot of it. There's a lot of beef world wide available. The US will import from almost any country at any time.
 

Aaron

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I am one of the few that will say that we need to see a contraction of all food commodities in North America. Talking to a neighbour in his early 60's....he said the same thing. "We need to see a big reduction in the cattle industry, so maybe we can get to a point where supply is actually limited and young guys can make a buck at it." Get away from this idea that we need to feed the world and focus on our own people (who couldn't care half the time either). Until then, your not going to see major swings in our live cattle prices. I am interested to see where cull cattle prices are going to end up this summer. Lots of people going to be eating hamburger and very doubtful the packers are going to start grinding select steer carcasses into ground beef. I would predict we are going to see fat cattle prices dwindle down this summer and cull cattle go sky high. :cowboy:
 
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Jogeephus

Jogeephus

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Aaron":2ebmasxj said:
I am one of the few that will say that we need to see a contraction of all food commodities in North America. Talking to a neighbour in his early 60's....he said the same thing. "We need to see a big reduction in the cattle industry, so maybe we can get to a point where supply is actually limited and young guys can make a buck at it." Get away from this idea that we need to feed the world and focus on our own people (who couldn't care half the time either). Until then, your not going to see major swings in our live cattle prices. I am interested to see where cull cattle prices are going to end up this summer. Lots of people going to be eating hamburger and very doubtful the packers are going to start grinding select steer carcasses into ground beef. I would predict we are going to see fat cattle prices dwindle down this summer and cull cattle go sky high. :cowboy:

I think we have already seen this in the cattle inventory as it is the smallest since Jan of 1959. I think you are right about the burger and think others are correct in their acknowledgement of what the dairy reduction is doing to our market. Once these flow through the system it would seem we should begin seeing higher prices. But I don't have a feel for how the imports are going to effect us.
 

bigbull338

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i was talking to my cattle hauler while we loaded the calves.an he said that packer cows had gone back up in price.
 

Aaron

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Jogeephus":jjo8h6t4 said:
Aaron":jjo8h6t4 said:
I am one of the few that will say that we need to see a contraction of all food commodities in North America. Talking to a neighbour in his early 60's....he said the same thing. "We need to see a big reduction in the cattle industry, so maybe we can get to a point where supply is actually limited and young guys can make a buck at it." Get away from this idea that we need to feed the world and focus on our own people (who couldn't care half the time either). Until then, your not going to see major swings in our live cattle prices. I am interested to see where cull cattle prices are going to end up this summer. Lots of people going to be eating hamburger and very doubtful the packers are going to start grinding select steer carcasses into ground beef. I would predict we are going to see fat cattle prices dwindle down this summer and cull cattle go sky high. :cowboy:

I think we have already seen this in the cattle inventory as it is the smallest since Jan of 1959. I think you are right about the burger and think others are correct in their acknowledgement of what the dairy reduction is doing to our market. Once these flow through the system it would seem we should begin seeing higher prices. But I don't have a feel for how the imports are going to effect us.

I think if we could get the cowherd down by 30-40% in both of our countries, the payoff would be much bigger.

As far as imports, we need to keep food security top notch (Peanut Corp. and Maple Leaf Meats were let downs). Let it be the 2nd rate countries who export these salmonella and e.coli-laced foods. People wise up fast when their loved ones start hitting the dirt due to cheap, tainted imports. :cowboy:
 

john250

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Jogeephus":1vae2e38 said:
With cattle inventories at their lowest in years and cost of production being at the highest in years, record prices for retail beef when do you think calf prices will turn around?

Apparently we are in a long contraction phase.
The question concerns calf prices. Since feedlots buy the bulk of the calves, first feedlots will have to make money. Grain prices are way down from the highs of last summer, so that is good. Fat cattle prices are weak, so that is bad. Feedlots have lost tons of money for over a year, it seems, and I think the lots will have to see some real strong prices to get optomistic and also to get financed. Plus, the lots are under huge "social" pressure from the Michael Pollan/New York Times crowd. I see this decision by the EPA to regulate dust as aimed almost entirely at the lots, and based more on a social model than a serious environmental concern. Still, the best days of the feedlot biz may be behind us.
For those of us calf sellers who don't number our herd in thousands, these margins aren't sustainable. The majority of beef will soon come from less developed parts of the world. Cheap land has always been key to the cattle biz.
I'll venture a prediction that east of the Mississippi (excepting perhaps Fla and some of S Ga) we will either be "boutique" operations selling direct at higher prices or we'll be hobbys.
There is some hope for the boutique angle, as there are still plenty of people with money to buy good meat. The veggie, no meat, animal rights people are not affecting consumption to any huge degree overall. They are a sideshow, as people still eat meat when finances permit.
And in the end, as individual farms and ranches, it matters more whether it rains too much or not at all. How's that for a business model.
 

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