Whats the price gonna be?

kenny thomas

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Nov 16, 2008
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City & State/Province
SW tip of Virginia
Most markets in the east have been closed for 2 weeks during the holidays. We only closed 1 week.
What are the predictions of calf prices by mid January? We have a sale Saturday but I'm gonna hold another week and let things get rolling.
I predict calves will be higher by mid January and through the spring.
Slaughter cows and bulls should be high because hardly any have been sold for the last 2 weeks. Several people, me included, have been holding them for a new year because of taxes.
Whats your thoughts?
 
Calves always trend up January through spring. I think that will happen. The question is how much higher? I think it will be just nickles and dimes. A lot of that will be regional market differences. How big is the demand for calves to go to spring grass in the area. Kill cows and bulls trended down some as the fall glut of cull cows went to town. For the most part that has passed. So I look for those to gain some in the new year. I don't think they will exceed last year's high price but they certainly could reach that level again.
 
Retirement is the best gig I have ever had. Gives me more time to go to the sale. I have been going through withdrawals over the holidays. Last sale was Dec 18. The next one isn't until Jan 7.
I go to at least 1 sale a week almost year round. A special Holstein steer sale once a month. Our local sale only took off December 27th but I'm still having withdrawal. Sale starts back January 3rd.
 
I go to at least 1 sale a week almost year round. A special Holstein steer sale once a month. Our local sale only took off December 27th but I'm still having withdrawal. Sale starts back January 3rd.
The two closest sale are Wednesday and Thursday. So this year they hit Christmas eve and Christmas along with New Years eve and New Years day.
 
I go to at least 1 sale a week almost year round. A special Holstein steer sale once a month. Our local sale only took off December 27th but I'm still having withdrawal. Sale starts back January 3rd.
How does that work? Are there BCS for Holstein steers? I could see that, but they'd have to be 1, 2, 3 maybe and not any higher unless they have their own scale. Do they sell them young, or weaning age/7 months, or finished? Or all ages/conditions?
 
How does that work? Are there BCS for Holstein steers? I could see that, but they'd have to be 1, 2, 3 maybe and not any higher unless they have their own scale. Do they sell them young, or weaning age/7 months, or finished? Or all ages/conditions?
I thought all holsteins were weaned at a day old so yes all weaned. All off the bottle also. From 300 lb to 1500lb but most in the 400 to 800lb range.
There are state graders that do the grading. #1,#2,#3 and then singles. Different scale im sure because most grade #1. Horns are graded but listed and sold separately.
Jersey steers are graded and sold also.
 
I thought all holsteins were weaned at a day old so yes all weaned. All off the bottle also. From 300 lb to 1500lb but most in the 400 to 800lb range.
There are state graders that do the grading. #1,#2,#3 and then singles. Different scale im sure because most grade #1. Horns are graded but listed and sold separately.
Jersey steers are graded and sold also.
HA! To a beef guy (at least me) weaning age is seven months regardless of when they were actually weaned. So I guess #1 grade is the best for Holsteins, rather than a beef BCS of 1 being too skinny. We have some huge dairies around here. Well, at least huge to me. 6K+ or so cows each and there are three of them within 50 miles. Don't really see a lot of Holsteins at the sale barn. Not really a lot at any of the barns I've frequented. I'd like to see a special Holstein sale just for the experience.
 
BCS I guess is part of it but thats not actually what they are grading. A #1 calf is the best all around, #2 not bad but thinner, #3 is skinny, and singles can have any defect.
It's very rare to see a Holstein calf at the stockyard here. My buddy gets steers from Pennsylvania, Virginia, North and South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. Even with all those areas he rarely gets over 25 per month. They are worked, dehorned, and put on a creep feeder for 2 to 3 months. Then we take them to this special sale just for Holstein and jersey steers.
 
Holstein feeder sales are fairly common in areas with alot of dairies. They don't sell on BCS system.....although they are graded on flesh/condition and frame size.....they are sold at all weights... most are in the 350 lb range and up... weaned and on feed. It depends on the area and the farmer... but many are put on feed by former/retired dairy farmers, Because they were good at growing holstein heifers, and since they no longer milk, they are good at feeding holstein steers.....some feed up to 1,000 lbs and then they go on feedlots.
So, anyone that raises some bottle calves will get them weaned and started on feed. Grain and hay and some grass... Holsteins eat alot and have to have a good protein to grow body & bone.... so many people will sell them by the time they reach 4-500 lbs . Most holsteins are weaned off bottles by 8-12 weeks...
Many are sold in the weaned 4-5 wt range...
The buyers know what they are looking for... there are farmers that specialize in feeding out holsteins. There are buyers for all sizes. One of my dairies feeds his to the 8-900 lb range... another that likes to ship them off at 550 or 600.
Used to be a farmer would raise his holstein bull calves up, make them steers, then sell once a year to pay taxes or have extra money at Christmas. Value added when he had the extra feed already there to feed..... Some would sell in the 4-6 wt range in the spring when it was greening up for grass...
For years we would get $.50/lb average for most any weight holstein.. with the cost of milk replacer being low, or raising them on a nurse cow, even with feeding grain, you could make a little money on them. Then the bottom fell out, baby calves were giveaways... and the milk replacer costs jumped but the return did not. Wasn't hardly worth the time...

Now with baby calves ... holstein, black or whatever, bringing in the $750-1500 range... holstein feeders are a gamble but are bringing decent money. However, most of my dairy farmers are selling them at 3 day old size, because at 500 lbs and bringing $3.00 lb... there is not much return for all those months work. Black ones... holstein/black beef crosses are in the high end prices... if you lose one or 2 you have buried a real significant amount of money.
But if you can get some of the smaller (60-75 lb ) holstein bull calves for lesser money, there is a return selling them as feeders. Many will grow out decently, they just need a little more time to catch up to their 100 lb "brothers.
 
Would like to know what butcher cows are bringing down south. Will have some ready in another couple weeks.
 
First sale last Friday here in Va. they were in the 1.45 to 1.85 range from what few there were... Not many at the sale, there were only about 2-300 total there that day.
The sale barn on Sat that is north of me, had about 1000 head total, cows were in the 1.25 to 1.85 range.

Virginia is a loooong way from you...
 

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