stocks

[regenwether]

Ryder..Glad to see you took some profit. Why do you think your a dumb cowboy . Sounds like you know what your doing. Believe it or not I'm quite conservitive. I know it is not a good idea but I went with my gut with this one. DE is the one I made the mistake. I was too cheap at the time and went with CNH. Too late now. Happy Investing!!

 

[HerefordSire]

One way to diversify your position is to diversify the brain cells controlling emotional trading decisions through studying history. Throughout history there are prime examples of how people lost their wealth. The most interesting example I have studied is the Holland Tulip bubble:

Initially, only the true connoisseurs bought tulip bulbs, but the rapidly rising price quickly attracted speculators looking to profit. It didn't take long before the tulip bulbs were traded on local market exchanges, which were not unlike today's stock exchanges. By 1634, tulip mania had feverishly spread to the Dutch middle class. Pretty soon everybody was dealing in tulip bulbs, looking to make a quick fortune. The majority of the tulip bulb buyers had no intentions of even planting these bulbs! The name of the game was to buy low and sell high, just like in any other market. The whole Dutch nation was caught in a sweeping mania, as people traded in their land, livestock, farms and life savings all to acquire 1 single tulip bulb!

The financial devastation that followed the tulip bulb crash lasted for decades, crippling Dutch commerce. The price of tulips at the height of the mania was $76,000; 6 weeks later they were valued at less than one dollar! The only people who prospered from the insanity were the smart money who liquidated at the top.

In market manias, the investors are acting irrationally. Excessive greed causes people to feel financially invincible and make decisions that cause financial devastation. This process occurs regardless of if the market is a commodity market or a paper market like stocks. The moral is clear; the only way to survive is to be the smart money.

http://www.stock-market-crash.net/tulip-mania.htm

 

[Ryder]

I have been studying financial markets for about 30 years. There are a lot of similarities in the 1929 market crash and the following depression and now. I believe we will enter into another depression soon, maybe within 10 years. I am no gloom and doom person and at the same time, the charts and numbers I study all point to major problems ahead.

I am surprised this thing has held together as long as it has. I don't think it can go another 10 years.
The S&P topped out at 1553.11 in 2000 and I thought that was the top. It has gone back up to 1540.56 on June 1. Question is will old high hold as resistance or will it push on through???

Long term wave studies show that we are several years overdue now. As Robt. Prechter has poiinted out, a few years is not really not that much when you are looking at a very powerful 200 year up wave. The end result remains the same. The public is always euphorically optimistic as manias reach their tops. And, you can't tell them anything,

You probably are very familiar with the charts showing manias, but there are some on

http://lynncoins.com/part1.htm

 

[HerefordSire]

Good thread! Great response! Herefordsire we don't agree in this area. I respect your opinion. In the area of stocks...the thing is i love it! I enjoy the research, watching it grow (or go down). I wouldn't suggest anyone to put a large share of their net worth in the stock market. For the average investor they
might do better than lets say a C.D.
In the area of gold. What do you recommend?

Thank-you. What makes you think we don't see eye to eye? I love following equities also including research as you do. I am not authorized to recommend investments as this is regulated. I was simply encouraging you to research gold and history.

How much of a correction percentage wise do you think we are due by viewing this chart? Look very closely what happened after 1929 while you are at it and try to compare it your real life living during the 2000 market top to the market 2002 bottom and compare the two. Also, look at the run in the 1980s and 90s.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

 

[HerefordSire]

I am surprised this thing has held together as long as it has. I don't think it can go another 10 years.
The S&P topped out at 1553.11 in 2000 and I thought that was the top. It has gone back up to 1540.56 on June 1. Question is will old high hold as resistance or will it push on through???

Me also. I have seen many double tops which end in disasters. When we hit the top in 2000 I knew based upon the Elliot Wave principal that the 2000 top could be wave three of five waves with the fourth wave ending at the bottom in 2002 and the new top around 2007 to 2010. It could be we are in the fifth and final wave which would push us to 15,000 or so in the DJIA. Either way, it sure does look like the top is nearby.

Long term wave studies show that we are several years overdue now. As Robt. Prechter has poiinted out, a few years is not really not that much when you are looking at a very powerful 200 year up wave. The end result remains the same. The public is always euphorically optimistic as manias reach their tops. And, you can't tell them anything,

You got that right! I have studied alot of charts and market history. Another one I found very intersting in the Kondratieff Long Wave. Please do yourself a favor and read up on it if you haven't already.

The Winter of the K-wave is a dangerous period. But it will be eased for those holding gold or gold stocks. That new bull market is still in its infancy and may yet face a significant shakeout to make its final bottom. But we would all be wise to hold at least a little gold. The winter of the K-wave is upon us.

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm


You probably are very familiar with the charts showing manias, but there are some on

http://lynncoins.com/part1.htm[/quote]

Thank-you. I always enjoy a history refresher especially when the charts represent more than 1000 words.

 

[Ryder]

[ Another one I found very intersting in the Kondratieff Long Wave. Please do yourself a favor and read up on it if you haven't already.[/i]

The Winter of the K-wave is a dangerous period. But it will be eased for those holding gold or gold stocks. That new bull market is still in its infancy and may yet face a significant shakeout to make its final bottom. But we would all be wise to hold at least a little gold. The winter of the K-wave is upon us.

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

/quote]
Yes, I have been acquainted with the Kondratieff for a long time. It is over due also.
I think the fed has skewed ,exended,the wave some what. I don't now this, just speculation.

What is that saying, "Those that do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

 

[HerefordSire]

I agree with the fed manipulating greed and fear levels, the main drivers, of citizens and market particpants. Remember when we were kids playing hot potato? A ring of kids when get in a circle and pass a potato thinking it was hot and whoever got stuck with the potato last, lost? Well that is the way the market is. The bagholder always loses and has the highest cost basis of all investors. Another....remember when we were kids and used to twirl our thumbs around each other and in order to stop twirling our thumbs we had to get someone else to start twirling their thumbs in circular motions? That is the only way you can make money in markets...is if you get another person to buy what you are selling or else you will be a bagholder. The general Nasdaq 2000 bagholders are still 50% down while the DJIA and the SP500 just broke even.

 

[Ryder]

I agree with the fed manipulating greed and fear levels, the main drivers, of citizens and market particpants. Remember when we were kids playing hot potato? A ring of kids when get in a circle and pass a potato thinking it was hot and whoever got stuck with the potato last, lost? Well that is the way the market is. The bagholder always loses and has the highest cost basis of all investors. Another....remember when we were kids and used to twirl our thumbs around each other and in order to stop twirling our thumbs we had to get someone else to start twirling their thumbs in circular motions? That is the only way you can make money in markets...is if you get another person to buy what you are selling or else you will be a bagholder. The general Nasdaq 2000 bagholders are still 50% down while the DJIA and the SP500 just broke even.

Right.
Some brokers and investors like to say that the markwt corrects down but it always goes back up. It is interesting to look at a long term chart and see how long it would take if stock was bought at the '29 high to come back to that level. That is if the company continued to exist. The crash of '29 was a cycle high, but it certainly was not the high of this 5th wave grand super cycle or whatever it is called.
Those that think things are just great don't know or understand that we have gone from being the richest nation in the world to being the biggest debtor nation in the world. The whole thing is a house built of cards.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I agree with the fed manipulating greed and fear levels, the main drivers, of citizens and market particpants. Remember when we were kids playing hot potato? A ring of kids when get in a circle and pass a potato thinking it was hot and whoever got stuck with the potato last, lost? Well that is the way the market is. The bagholder always loses and has the highest cost basis of all investors. Another....remember when we were kids and used to twirl our thumbs around each other and in order to stop twirling our thumbs we had to get someone else to start twirling their thumbs in circular motions? That is the only way you can make money in markets...is if you get another person to buy what you are selling or else you will be a bagholder. The general Nasdaq 2000 bagholders are still 50% down while the DJIA and the SP500 just broke even.

Right.
Some brokers and investors like to say that the markwt corrects down but it always goes back up. It is interesting to look at a long term chart and see how long it would take if stock was bought at the '29 high to come back to that level. That is if the company continued to exist. The crash of '29 was a cycle high, but it certainly was not the high of this 5th wave grand super cycle or whatever it is called.
Those that think things are just great don't know or understand that we have gone from being the richest nation in the world to being the biggest debtor nation in the world. The whole thing is a house built of cards.

Day trading has made this house of cards more vunerable than in the past.

 

[regenwether]

Interesting stuff. Looks like things are near the end. So where do you smart people put all your eggs?? Land?? Cattle?? Please tell me.

Wealth is something we all desire. There are many forms of wealth I'm trying to build. $$$ is one I'm trying to do without getting a paycheck ( welcome to the selfemployed :lol: ) One is knowledge ( I think Q&A Boards are a great place to float ideas). Another (I think the best!) is sitting on my lap( my four year old girl :heart: ) as I write this post. What ever you think is of the most value...non of it last forever. Ya the Market might take a crap . Big deal...life goes on. Smell the roses!!

 

[HerefordSire]

The risk of the markets is in derivatives.



1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars
1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars
1,000,000: 1 Million dollars
$400,000,000,000,000: Estimated total derivative exposure of all banks in the entire world. (20 x U.S. GDP) (up to $400 Trillion?)
$118,000,000,000,000: World Global Capital Markets (Stocks, Bonds, &?) Feb 2005 McKinsey Global Inst.
$75,000,000,000,000: U.S. Govt. unfunded liabilities; social security, etc.
$49,000,000,000,000: World bond market, Fall 2004 PWL Capital Inc.
$46,000,000,000,000: Total World Paper Money supply 2004; from M2 & GDP of EU, USA, Japan, & China (see SSR #56)
$45,153,000,000,000: U.S. Household wealth, as of first quarter, 2004. (Includes Real Estate, and investments)
$37,000,000,000,000: Total global equity market capitalization June 2001 UN.ORG
$21,700,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of NYSE stocks, Dec '05 http://nyse.com
$21,000,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, Sept, '03: IAPF treas.gov
$12,605,000,000,000: U.S. GDP, 2005 (3Q) http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm
$10,261,000,000,000: M3 (money in U.S. banks) Jan '06 http://tinyurl.com/vra0
$8,249,000,000,000: US debt, 2-23-2006 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
$4,000,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of Tokyo stocks, Dec '05 http://nyse.com
$3,600,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks, Dec '05 http://nyse.com
$3,000,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of London stocks, Dec '05 http://nyse.com
$2,622,000,000,000: Total gold mined in all of history, 150,000 T (4.6 bil oz.) @ $570/oz. http://www.gold.org
$2,500,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of Euronext stocks, Dec '05 http://nyse.com
$2,400,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget 2005
$1,200,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of Deutsche Boerse stocks, Dec '05 http://nyse.com
$754,000,000,000: Total U.S. paper currency & coin in circulation, March 2005 http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html
$753,000,000,000: Annual U.S. current account deficit (trade deficit) for 2005, (annualized from 1 Q 2005).
$596,000,000,000: U.S. debt increase (true deficit) (Fiscal year '03-'04). http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
$400,000,000,000: Total silver mined in all of history: 40 billion oz. @ $10/oz. gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler110799.html
$376,000,000,000: Market Cap of Exxon Mobil (biggest U.S. Corp.) (8-05) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=XOM
$286,000,000,000: Debt of General Motors (biggest U.S. car company) Jan 2006
$149,000,000,000: US gold, 261 mil oz., @ $570/oz. fms.treas.gov/gold/
$110,000,000,000: all the world's gold stocks/equities (Sept. 25, 2005, Denver Gold Conference)
$75,000,000,000: Money flowed into Equity funds in the first quarter, 2004
$26,000,000,000: Market Cap of Newmont July '05 (biggest gold company in the world)
$8,226,000,000: all the world's "primary" silver stocks (80 of them on this list, as of June 25, 2004) --my own data.
$7,000,000,000: annual flow of money "lost" in Las Vegas while gambling.
$4,000,000,000: Total annual ATM penalty fees http://redtape.msnbc.com/2005/10/now_even_atm_de.html $13/year per household
$3,500,000,000: 350 mil oz. of "identifiable" silver bullion left in the entire world, according to GFMS @ $10/oz.
$1,300,000,000: 130 million oz. of silver needed by the Barclays Silver ETF: feared to cause a silver shortage by the SUA.
$720,000,000: 72 mil oz. of "registered" NYMEX silver bullion (1-05-05) @ $10/oz. http://www.nymex.com/sil_fut_wareho.aspx
$266,000,000: 40 million oz. of silver purchased for investment, in 2004 at $6.66/oz.
$75,000,000: Limit 7.5 mil oz. of silver @ $10/oz. (limit of 1500 contracts per trader) at NYMEX
$15,000,000: Limit 1.5 mil oz. of silver @ $10/oz. (potential 1 month delivery limit) at NYMEX
$7,500,000: Limit .75 mil oz. of silver @ $10/oz. (over 150 contracts and you must reveal who you are) at NYMEX
$100,000: Limit of FDIC insurance per bank account.
$5,000: Limit of average cash withdrawl from small town banks, without ordering cash in advance.
$300: Limit of average ATM daily withdrawl
$10: Approximate amount of silver available per person in the U.S. at $10/oz., given 300 million oz., if that is available.



http://www.safehaven.com/article-4677.htm

 

[Frankie]

Interesting stuff. Looks like things are near the end. So where do you smart people put all your eggs?? Land?? Cattle?? Please tell me.

Wealth is something we all desire. There are many forms of wealth I'm trying to build. $$$ is one I'm trying to do without getting a paycheck ( welcome to the selfemployed :lol: ) One is knowledge ( I think Q&A Boards are a great place to float ideas). Another (I think the best!) is sitting on my lap( my four year old girl :heart: ) as I write this post. What ever you think is of the most value...non of it last forever. Ya the Market might take a crap . Big deal...life goes on. Smell the roses!!

Where you put your money should be partly determined by your age. We used to have most of our savings in the stock market, but moved most of our IRA money out in spring of 2000. Now that's in bank CDs, FDIC insured.

I'm a great believer in our stock market. Over time, I think you'll make more money investing there than anywhere else, if you can ride out the downturns. We've been in mutual funds for probably 35 years and are much better financally for it than if we had just stuck to CDs or bank savings. But don't invest anything you can't do without.

 

[HerefordSire]

Right.
Some brokers and investors like to say that the markwt corrects down but it always goes back up. It is interesting to look at a long term chart and see how long it would take if stock was bought at the '29 high to come back to that level. That is if the company continued to exist. The crash of '29 was a cycle high, but it certainly was not the high of this 5th wave grand super cycle or whatever it is called.
Those that think things are just great don't know or understand that we have gone from being the richest nation in the world to being the biggest debtor nation in the world. The whole thing is a house built of cards.


....cards....? It is worse than you realize I am afraid. You see, all we need for the house of cards to collapse is a derivative crisis of some type. Derivative losses are very hard to account for...one firm like JP Morgan could be exposed more than anyone realizes at any one time. If anything major causes a firm to start losing money and they have to close some positions and a large derivative exposure exists within that firm, it could cause a domino effect like a wave in a flood.

 

[SPRINGER FARMS MURRAY GRE]

The purpose of the stock market is for a FEW people (the elite) to make money.The purpose for the rest of us is to tie up your money and mess with your mind! ;-)