Speculation on cattle prices.

[backhoeboogie]

Locally the drought of '05 was devastating to anyone who didn't have irrigation. This year was bad but it wasn't so bad that cactus died like it did last year. Last fall I planted wheat, oats and rye and it was a total loss. This year I planted it again and all is sprouting and doing okay.

With so many folks selling out completely in '05 and others culling hard, then this year others sold completely out, what are the prices on heifers going to be in the spring?

I have 11 head total right now. That's it. I am looking at 207 acres of good grazing next year that could easily support well over 100 head. If it is a wet year, I don't think anyone is going to be selling good heifers. Those who plan on staying in the business are going to have to rebuild the herds.

Steers will be available since they can't be used to build a herd with.

With the recent rains, enough hay to get me through until next year, and now wheat, oats, clover and rye growing, I am thinking this may be the best time to buy some cows. Prices have taken a bit of a drop. I had hoped they'd go lower.

Anyone else got an opinion on this?

 

[bigbull338]

if you have the hay to feed a few more id start buying them in nov.an only buy the best looking cows.you dont want old or problem cows.by nov your winter pasture should be ready to graze.now jan or feb if it rains the cow prices will go sky high.

 

[Jogeephus]

Was looking to buy some cows this month. Went to sale and good cows were too high for me. It was suggested that November would be lower. I hope we both have better luck in November.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Thanks for the replies. I'll be watching some auctions.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Locally the drought of '05 was devastating to anyone who didn't have irrigation. This year was bad but it wasn't so bad that cactus died like it did last year. Last fall I planted wheat, oats and rye and it was a total loss. This year I planted it again and all is sprouting and doing okay.

With so many folks selling out completely in '05 and others culling hard, then this year others sold completely out, what are the prices on heifers going to be in the spring?

I have 11 head total right now. That's it. I am looking at 207 acres of good grazing next year that could easily support well over 100 head. If it is a wet year, I don't think anyone is going to be selling good heifers. Those who plan on staying in the business are going to have to rebuild the herds.

Steers will be available since they can't be used to build a herd with.

With the recent rains, enough hay to get me through until next year, and now wheat, oats, clover and rye growing, I am thinking this may be the best time to buy some cows. Prices have taken a bit of a drop. I had hoped they'd go lower.

Anyone else got an opinion on this?

Boogie I have been building back slow from the 99 drought here. I can't even come close to predicting what replacements will run if rainfall returns to normal. All it can do is go up which really takes a bite in profit. I held on to a bunch of good heifers this year due they were to good for hamburger and no one was buying at Crockett. I had grass so just decided it was the best time.
I think if I had the hay I would stock up now as I don't see you ever getting better prices.

 

[backhoeboogie]

I held on to a bunch of good heifers this year due they were to good for hamburger and no one was buying at Crockett. I had grass so just decided it was the best time.
I think if I had the hay I would stock up now as I don't see you ever getting better prices.

Smart move on your part. You will make money on those heifers you kept.

I am going to pick up a few head if I can find some I like. Mostly been looking for brangus. No one seems to be turning loose of the good ones right now. Don't blame them. I missed on a couple of baldies last time I was at the auction. Wished I would have jumped on those.

For now I can keep selling hay and as you know, it is going to be a while before hay reaches surplus levels again in this area.

 

[Herefordcross]

Go to Four States in Hagerstown Maryland. Last week 10 hereford bred heifers $525 a piece week before 7 Black cows 3 year olds $750 a piece. Go figure. They are going down, down, down........................ here anyway.

 

[sidney411]

I hope you are right. I sold all the steers at auction this weekend and prices were down considerably. I was hoping I wouldn't notice the drop, but it was very noticible. I kept the heifers and am preconditioning them now. I plan on putting an ad in the paper for them this week. I'd like to keep them too but need the $$$ more then heifers at this time.