I know the drought has been bad for a lot of areas. I read how it has gone on for some time in certain areas, lots of cattle sold off and very high hay costs.My question is what is the outlook for cattle raisers in these areas.? Are you expecting the drought to be over next year? Do you think most people will restock after the drought?
Question for folks in drought areas
- Thread starter Fred
- Start date
Jogeephus
Well-known member
Just speaking for myself, I plan on increasing numbers shortly but am also going to increase grazable acreage as well. I plan on creating an emergency grazing area just to buy some time in the event next summer is similar to this one.
I learned a few lessons this year and hopefully I'll remember them in the future. Maybe, I won't get my pencil too sharp and leave a little cushion for ....
I learned a few lessons this year and hopefully I'll remember them in the future. Maybe, I won't get my pencil too sharp and leave a little cushion for ....
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
Fred it was awful last year. 2005 broke all records including the dust bowl locally. I saw cactus dry up and die. Fires broke out and burned some folks completely out. Those old barns are not being built back and some of those places were sold off to real estate companies.
I know of three rather large places that have gone to turf farmers. They plant the grasses and cut sod to sell to developers, irrigating the sod out of the river each cycle. There seems to be money in that.
This year has been much better. The wheat, rye and clover planted got rain and are looking great. Last year those fields were planted and didn't get a bit of rain until late January. I was haying last year in early July. This year I will have surplus hay for the few head I have left.
Those who intend on staying in the cattle business should be building their herds back if we get any rain. Since the drought was so widespread this year, cattle prices should be high in the spring if it rains. Commercial cattlemen will have some steers to sell but I expect most to retain decent heifers. That is just my humble opinion based on the drought cycles in previous decades.
I know of three rather large places that have gone to turf farmers. They plant the grasses and cut sod to sell to developers, irrigating the sod out of the river each cycle. There seems to be money in that.
This year has been much better. The wheat, rye and clover planted got rain and are looking great. Last year those fields were planted and didn't get a bit of rain until late January. I was haying last year in early July. This year I will have surplus hay for the few head I have left.
Those who intend on staying in the cattle business should be building their herds back if we get any rain. Since the drought was so widespread this year, cattle prices should be high in the spring if it rains. Commercial cattlemen will have some steers to sell but I expect most to retain decent heifers. That is just my humble opinion based on the drought cycles in previous decades.
3 years ago we started to recover from a 3 year drought. What that drought taught me is to go slow in restocking. The last 2 years we have again been visited by drought. By having kept our stocking rate low we've managed to have a lot of the pastures recover some even with the drought conditions. One thing I learned for sure is that the old poisonous fescue will come back when everything else is gone. OG has faded to nearly nonexistence, even in the fields I reseeded twice, but the neglected fescue is still doing ok. It takes a lot more then one year of normal or even above normal moisture to recover from dorught. Not only the soil moisture but the aquifers need to be recharged to really break a drought. Ponds/tanks/dugouts, whatever they're called in your area may befilled butthat doesn;t really address the deep moisture that has been depleted. Irrigation can help dispell some of the miserys of drought, but unless you're sitting on an endless aquifer you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
dun
dun
cowboy44
Well-known member
I don't think the drought is over, several different extension meetings I have been to it has been brought up that it is predicted it will be 15 more years of drought. That even during drought years you will have rainy periods.We had a few rains in Oct none in Nov yesterday we had 50 mile an North winds with dry humidity that sapped the moisture out of what green grass we had, to survive I plan to stay stocked to the miminum even during rainy periods the pastures in this area have been destroyed so it will take years to recover. I have seen a lot of native pasture with nothing but weeds and dirt with cows out there searching for grass. When we had a little rain these pastures did not respond at all but the pastures that were not overstocked have bounced back. I think we need to stay prepared for drought and not over stock to keep good grass and not destroy the roots.
Gate Opener
Well-known member
It has been terrible. I am hoping that the drought will be over come next year but I am leary and therefore am only going to add a few head this year. We have more land now and hopefully enough gold, oops I mean hay to carry them. There are a lot of people who have sold out or sold way down. Drive down the roads around here and everybody's pastures look terrible. lI also have learned from this (the hard way along with most everyone else)and will do things differently from now on. I am guessing that there will still be more people selling cows when the real cold weather hits.
Plan ahead for something like this. When it is here it is too late. If you are able to, have at least 2 years of hay on hand. If a drought does hit sell early when the prices are still good and having fewer head will not be as hard on your pastures.
I wish I had boocoodles of rolls of hay that I could sell at a FAIR price to people who are getting goughed around here(us included). It is shameful!
Plan ahead for something like this. When it is here it is too late. If you are able to, have at least 2 years of hay on hand. If a drought does hit sell early when the prices are still good and having fewer head will not be as hard on your pastures.
I wish I had boocoodles of rolls of hay that I could sell at a FAIR price to people who are getting goughed around here(us included). It is shameful!
Earl Thigpen
Well-known member
Gate Opener":qrntj2dp said:
You're right about those folks who are gouging those who are less fortunate. I refuse to pay $85/bale (and up) for hay that sold two years ago for $35. If I had a surplus I too would be selling at a reasonable price just to help out. As it is I may have just enough hay to last me through the Winter if we have a reasonable Spring. If we don't get a few drops of water in the Spring I'm going to be in trouble.
I don't plan to increase (or decrease) my herd size outside of what happens naturally. I've got about thirty calves on the ground and I think another 12 or 13 more due any minute now. That'll put me back up to 125 or so and I'll be operating over what I can support with a normal rainfall year.
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
Earl Thigpen":3av88s8c said:
In all due respect sir, I've got $35 a bale in mine just attributed to irrigation.
Pumping river water is expensive. Fuel is high, irrigation pipe is expensive, and water meter prices are pretty high too. Fertilizer cost $315 a ton. If I sold mine for $50 a bale, I'd be deep in the red.
The land can easily support 150 head on normal rainfall years. I was down to 10. The only reason I am in the black is because of hay sales and it is not all that profitable. I didn't get $85 but rather $80. There'd be much more profit at $35 on normal years. Those who bought my hay were tickled to get it. It is much better than the stuff being imported. You can feed it to horses. I could have gotten $100. I sold nothing to strangers. Last year I saw 6 year old hay come in on trailers and go for $60.
NamVet_Farmer44
Well-known member
It's flooding here...I wish I could send yall some of this rain
Dusty Britches
Well-known member
Isn't pumping from the river illegal? I thought you either couldn't do it or had to have a permit from the river authority.
Ditto that Cowboy
Ditto that Cowboy
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
Dusty Britches":295ulmr3 said:
BRA will put a meter on your pump. I think I mentioned water meter prices in my post if that is what you are referring to. It is not cheap. Aint no way I will pay $35 a bale for water and sell the bale for $45. That won't even cover fertilizer let alone tractor fuel. That would be like selling quality cows for 10 cents a pound. Asking market prices is not gouging. Some folks are losing money at current prices.
MillIronQH
Well-known member
la4angus":2tvu9ajd said:
I guess we could ask Marie L. Dern sure can't depend on the weatherperson.Z
la4angus":1whafl8w said:
Early is kind of a relative thing. About the second month into what appears to be a drought situation you can start to cull down. The early part is, as we've seen on these boards that a lot of people hold on until the grass is totally gone then sell, all you have to be is earlier then the rest.
dun
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
la4angus":1ictgx2v said:
That is where luck came in. (if you can call it that) We were something like 38 inches of rain below normal locally on 18 months. Last year was absolutely awful. 100 miles north they received 12 inches one day and the Brazos was flooding. Both the Salt Fork and the Clear Fork set records. The Fort Worth area was crying and they received rains we did not get.
I held on until the bitter end. Since the drought was so localized, prices stayed up. I had to sell many and I got good prices. This year the drought has not been as bad as last year locally. We got a little bit of rain. Not near enough but a little. The fall rains have been good enough to grow winter grasses.
If 2005 had not been so bad, I wouldn't have sold before the prices dropped in 2006.
People were posting that the drought was so bad in the 50's, farmers burned the needles off of prickly pear and fed it to cows. Heck the prickly pear looked like dried up cardboard. It was all dead and shriveled. Old timers were saying they had survived the 50's and it was wet compared to this. Then there wre the wildfires that burned everyone out. Folks lost homes, barns - everything, over widespread areas in the county. Cedar trees would literally flash like a can of gasoline. Many cows burned up too. Sad times.
Anyway, because last year's drought was so terrible many of us sold then. We got decent prices. That situation contributed some to hay shortage since old hay was sold. This year it is widespread and too many cattle hit the market across the entire USA.
There are others like me buying back now since we are so short. If we weren't buying back, the prices might be worse in this area. It is not a good time to buy for the land's sake, but when you need 150 head and only have 10, prices are good, you need to do something.
cowboy44
Well-known member
November 30,2006 is the last day to get pasture,rangeland and hay insurance similar to crop insurance. I have been told if you do not have the insurance you will not qualify for any other kind of Gov. drougth assisant programs. Just a reminder to some that do not know about the program because I have talked to some cattlemen not aware of the program.
Gate Opener
Well-known member
la4angus":1l0x08ie said:
Sorry la4angus. When I said "When it is here it is too late" I followed that comment with "If you are able to, have at least 2 years of hay on hand". You left that part out.
However, I should not have put the part about selling early in the same paragraph. Didn't think it was that big of a deal. Just trying to help.
If you still want me to explain how a person knows that they are in a drought I will.
Thank you Dun, you seem to have a lot of intelligence along with common sense. Wonderful.
Earl Thigpen
Well-known member
backhoeboogie":2t6dnc62 said:
There is no question about the price of fuel and fertilizer being way up and if you're paying $35/bale in irrigation costs you need to get your water somewhere else.
I am not aware of anyone in Lavaca county irrigating their coastal - before everyone jumps on me I said I'm not AWARE of anyone irrigating.
Something's got to give. Folks simply can't pay the high feed costs and when the cattle are taken to market see an average return of $0.50/pound. Ain't gonna happen!
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
Earl Thigpen":afc5f401 said:
Exactly. I should be running 150 head on the land I am farming, but I had 10 after the terrible drought in '05. I'll never get below a dozen again. I will henceforth always have a slight surplus of hay.
There is really no other place to get water. If hay prices stay to a level that I can make a little bit off of hay, I'll do it again. Folks buying the hay appreciate me having it to sell.
If there winds up being no money to be made with cattle, and no money to be made with hay, maybe I'll grow watermellons/tomatoes or something like that. Turf grass farmers want to lease the place to grow lawn sod.
