Prices are starting to fall 6/27

Caustic Burno

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Big Thicket East Texas
Sold 7 4 wts today average sale was 1362 a head.
They brought top dollar today handed my barn receipt to the order buyer when I walked in.
Same set of calves would have brought 250-300 dollars more a head last year.
Kill cow prices holding steady.
Back to the farm heavies down as well 1200 to 1800.
 
That is still decent prices. I can earn nickels on 4 weights selling for that.

If I could buy heavies that were decent, in that range, you'd hear the wallet squeaking open.
 
backhoeboogie":2abd9xz3 said:
That is still decent prices. I can earn nickels on 4 weights selling for that.

If I could buy heavies that were decent, in that range, you'd hear the wallet squeaking open.

Not complaining just seeing a trend, higher volume through the barn as well.
That is what premium calves brought, wide range today from 2.35 to 3.08
on 4 to 5 wts.
Averaged 3.02 on the 7.
 
Prices at one of the big barns not too far from my house in SD this week.
9 blk-char-str 498 # $310.00
5 blk/red-str 485 # $308.00
9 mixed-str 568 # $293.00
4 rwf-str 564 # $273.00
5 blk-str 655 # $262.00
17 blk-char-str 769 # $239.50
16 blk-str 840 # $225.50
9 mixed-str 899 # $206.00
12 blk-str 1,015 # $190.00
9 mixed-str 1,056 # $184.00
7 blk-str 1,131 # $177.00
5 blk-str 1,127 # $176.50
12 blk-str 1,233 # $163.00


21 mixed-hfr 470 # $267.00
26 mixed-hfr 505 # $258.00
31 blk/red-hfr 573 # $253.00
15 blk/bwf-hfr 583 # $250.00
14 blk/red-hfr 515 # $240.00
14 blk-char-hfr 723 # $226.50
12 blk-hfr 776 # $222.50
8 mixed-hfr 787 # $203.00
13 mixed-hfr 888 # $188.50
9 blk-hfr 893 # $180.50
12 blk-hfr 1,051 # $168.50
7 blk/red-hfr 1,030 # $165.50

And for kill cows and Bulls

1 blk-bull 1,880 # $150.00
1 blk-bull 1,890 # $147.00
1 blk-bull 1,825 # $138.50
2 blk/red-bull 1,185 # $137.00
1 blk-cow 1,275 # $116.50
1 blk-cow 1,170 # $116.00
2 rwf-cow 1,500 # $114.00
1 blk-cow 1,350 # $114.00
2 blk-cow 1,250 # $113.50
1 red-cow 1,740 # $112.00
1 roan-cow 1,540 # $111.00
1 blk-cow 1,190 # $110.50
1 blk-cow 1,415 # $109.00
3 blk-cow 1,755 # $107.50
2 blk/bwf-cow 1,645 # $106.50
3 blk-cow 1,543 # $106.00
1 blk-cow 1,400 # $105.50
2 rwf-cow 1,073 # $103.00

And fat steers and heifers

5 blk-fat str DF 1,338 # $162.00
5 blk-fat str 1,214 # $157.00
24 blk/red-fat str 1,335 # $152.75
20 blk/bwf-fat str 1,441 # $152.50
23 blk-fat str 1,420 # $152.40
38 blk-fat str 1,532 # $152.35
36 mixed-fat str 1,563 # $151.75
15 blk-fat str 1,540 # $151.75
10 blk-fat str 1,429 # $151.75
12 blk/red-fat str 1,438 # $151.00
11 blk-char-fat str 1,416 # $150.75
6 blk-fat str 1,379 # $150.00
6 blk-fat str 1,383 # $149.00
7 hol-fat str 1,356 # $136.50
23 hol-fat str 1,486 # $136.25
10 hol-fat str 1,486 # $136.00
15 hol-fat str 1,472 # $135.50
18 hol-fat str 1,447 # $135.25
8 hol-fat str 1,524 # $134.25
8 hol-fat str 1,409 # $134.25
10 hol-fat str 1,520 # $134.00
6 hol-fat str 1,315 # $133.50
8 hol-fat str 1,300 # $133.00
8 hol-fat str 1,607 # $132.25
12 jersey-fat str 1,270 # $131.00

10 blk-fat hfr DF 1,241 # $161.00
27 blk/red-fat hfr 1,365 # $148.25
9 blk-fat hfr 1,246 # $148.00
8 blk-fat hfr 1,135 # $147.00
12 blk/bwf-fat hfr 1,208 # $145.75


A lot of big cattle coming in right now, not many light calves. Demand figured to be a little lighter this week as several backgrounders around home didn't want new cattle to take care of the week of the 4th.
 
It was a little cheaper on calves at Wills Point today (about $5 to $10 per cwt.). Not as cheap as I was expecting considering the futures board was $6 to $7 per cwt lower at the end of the week. A couple of the buyers I talked to said it was a combination of feeder board down, corn was up and some health problems. Packer cows were higher. One buyer said they need hamburger meat for the 4th of July. After the 4th he expects the cow price to drop.
 
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IMO and I very likely could be wrong but I think feeder prices are going to have to slow down a little until we know how this corn crop looks. There's to much risk that corn will go up to put $4.00 into 350-400 lb calves right now. I also think fats need to be 7-9 cents higher in the futures to maintain these feeder calf prices that have 700 lb steers at $2.35+. When my dad and I sat down and penciled out the 2.45 731 lb steers a couple weeks ago we couldn't even get a break even without a decent price increase or an unreasonably cheap cost of gain and no health problems whatsoever.


But I'm not going to pretend I haven't been wrong before. Somebody smarter than me must be making money on them.
 
I don't know about this, unless I'm forgetting something from a few months back, I saw the highest cattle I've ever seen sell today. 640lb steers at 2.74$, didn't see a good 6wt cheaper than 2.60$.
 
denvermartinfarms":1kblddfe said:
I don't know about this, unless I'm forgetting something from a few months back, I saw the highest cattle I've ever seen sell today. 640lb steers at 2.74$, didn't see a good 6wt cheaper than 2.60$.

All feeders were off 6 to 10 dollars a hundred here.
 
Caustic Burno":38voy5u5 said:
denvermartinfarms":38voy5u5 said:
I don't know about this, unless I'm forgetting something from a few months back, I saw the highest cattle I've ever seen sell today. 640lb steers at 2.74$, didn't see a good 6wt cheaper than 2.60$.

All feeders were off 6 to 10 dollars a hundred here.

I am seeing a drop here as well. I was wondering why that was. The kill cows haven't dropped one bit though.
 
USDA to Allow Beef Importation from Argentina, Brazil

Monday, June 29, 2015/
USDA to Allow Beef Importation from Argentina, Brazil
Billings, Mont. - Today, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack rushed to finalize two proposed rules that would increase imports of fresh beef from 14 states in Brazil and from Northern Argentina. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), one of the most contagious diseases known to infect cattle, is endemic in northern Brazil and the Secretary admits in his proposal for Argentina that the active FMD virus appears to be present in niches or patches in the country. The two rules will go into effect in 60 days.

Vilsack stated in both proposed rules that he expected the increased imports of fresh beef associated with the two rules to reduce producer welfare, lower U.S. beef prices, and lower U.S. beef production. He did not provide any other reason for his decision to relax longstanding FMD restrictions from the two countries.

http://www.northernag.net/AGNews/AgNews ... razil.aspx

Now you may really see prices drop... Vilsack stated he expected the increased imports of fresh beef from Argentina and Brazil to reduce producer welfare, lower U.S. beef prices, and lower U.S. beef production. He did not provide any other reason for his decision to relax longstanding FMD restrictions from the two countries.
And without COOL- that Congress voted this month to repeal - the multinational meatpackers can pass all this cheaper imported meat products off as domestic product to unsuspecting and uninformed consumers... A Win-Win for the multinational meatpackers (especially JBS the Brazilian owned meatpacker financed by the Brazilian government) and the South American producers while the U.S. cattlemen and the U.S. consumer takes it in the shorts again...
 
What a coincidence Congress fat cats vote down COOL and then we start to get more and more beef shipped here from other countries. And just so happens that Brazil has its worst drought in 80 years going on right now.
 
u4411clb":1jw4pswp said:
What a coincidence Congress fat cats vote down COOL and then we start to get more and more beef shipped here from other countries. And just so happens that Brazil has its worst drought in 80 years going on right now.
I don't believe in coincidences.

That's how they go in and make millions. Investing they call it.
 
Caustic Burno":3iz6a4lp said:
kenny thomas":3iz6a4lp said:
What happened today that made feeder futures for August jump 3.925?

Glad I sold last week they are even lower at Crockett this week.
http://www.easttexaslivestock.com/market-report/
The feeder futures were limit down Tuesday (down $4.50). Today it went back up $3.77. Most sales are closed for the 4th. Monday and Tuesday will be interesting.
 
bball":slt89hwv said:
:( See beef trending down on the CME......
Given all the messes in the global marketplace today, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in any violent movement either direction that occurred today in any product or commodity. Things have corrected on the feeders in relation to fats no doubt and may continue to do so. I also see a rebound in the futures (especially back month fats) later and am just using puts to protect downside risk right now. On the actual selling of cattle side, we sold a big string of 950lbs. steers for fall delivery today at $208 that will make good money. While volatility at these high levels require diligence, I think there are lots of opportunities in the marketplace and there can even be potential for profit taking during a decline if one doesn't allow said volatility to scare them to the sidelines and they have a sound approach.
 

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