Price

[Bub]

Is there any true an accurate way of predicting the cattle prices an can y'all explain how it works thanks

 

[Bigfoot]

Is there any true an accurate way of predicting the cattle prices an can y'all explain how it works thanks

Imho, it is impossible to predict the market.

 

[Ky hills]

I don't think that it is possible to predict, except for the fact that the market has always been cyclical and we can be sure that it goes in a cycle we just don't know at what points.

 

[RanchMan90]

So many variables affect price- election, imports, exports, commodity prices, volatile traders, and a touch of voodoo. Pretty well unpredictable, indeed a cycle though. Yesterday's question was when are prices coming up, today's question is where's the bottom.

 

[Bub]

How do you know when to buy an sell an manage risk

 

[TexasBred]

Is there any true an accurate way of predicting the cattle prices an can y'all explain how it works thanks

If there were we'd all be rich.

 

[Bub]

So everyone just roles the dice an hopes for the best?

 

[Cross-7]

So everyone just roles the dice an hopes for the best?

You can protect yourself somewhat with futures, puts, LRP insurance, foreword contracts and etc

 

[Texas Gal]

So everyone just roles the dice an hopes for the best?

Prepare for the worst; pray for the best. When working on my budget, I always plan using low cattle prices, not the highs of the last couple of years. I did not buy any cattle during the historic highs but have picked some up recently AND keep all the hay you can. My daddy always said "Hay in the barn is like money in the bank".

 

[Bub]

I haven't bought any when prices where high but thinking of picking some up. Just trying to figure out how to reduce the risk. I know there's always risk but just want to put the odds as much in my favor as I can

 

[M-5]

I haven't bought any when prices where high but thinking of picking some up. Just trying to figure out how to reduce the risk. I know there's always risk but just want to put the odds as much in my favor as I can

If it were just for the money no one would do it. It is more about the lifestyle and love of farming and freedom.

If your not in it for what I just mentioned then find somewhere else to invest your money cause you will never be happy with the ROI.

 

[TexasBred]

So everyone just roles the dice an hopes for the best?

Think of it more like buying and selling stocks. Everything has it's risks and hopefully rewards eventually.

 

[Bub]

I haven't bought any when prices where high but thinking of picking some up. Just trying to figure out how to reduce the risk. I know there's always risk but just want to put the odds as much in my favor as I can

If it were just for the money no one would do it. It is more about the lifestyle and love of farming and freedom.

If your not in it for what I just mentioned then find somewhere else to invest your money cause you will never be happy with the ROI.

This is interesting I do injoy all the above but it does take money an profit to keep the tracks greased an for people to do it for a living which I would like to do some day

 

[M-5]

I never said you couldn't make some money. A lot of people have a misguided view on what it takes to be profitable . They want to appear successful with fancy equipment and truck and a big sign hanging on the gate. these same people spent everything they made 2 years ago and did not invest anything back to help them make it thru the next couple of years.

 

[City Guy]

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."-Yogi Berra

 

[Dave]

Just watch what I do and do the opposite. It will work out more times than not.

 

[coachg]

If I buy , they are high ; if I sell , they are low ! I had to send 8 to sale today. Drought in N Al has me short on grass, water, and feeding hay 2 months early. what Dave said ! :cry2:

 

[Bub]

M-5 I understand where your coming from was just alittle confused

 

[Brute 23]

How do you know when to buy an sell an manage risk

You cant predict or control cattle prices. The fact is if your operation can't break even at .8 or .9 a lb... don't even get in the business. We will be at those prices more often than not.

Get a prioritized budget starting with necessities like water and go down the list to wants. The necessities need to fit in .85 a lb. When it goes to 1.25, 1.5, 2.0 you can slide down the list.

Don't get hung up on fancy equipment that makes things easier or saves money over 5 years. If you don't make it to 5 years... it didn't do you any good.

Buy things with money you have in your hand not money you are going to make.

People that have been doing this a long time and survive have some very basic game plans and they don't strey from them very often.

 

[boondocks]

.....

Don't get hung up on fancy equipment that makes things easier or saves money over 5 years. If you don't make it to 5 years... it didn't do you any good.

Buy things with money you have in your hand not money you are going to make.

People that have been doing this a long time and survive have some very basic game plans and they don't strey from them very often.

Brute, I like this rule. But can we make the "boondocks exception" for a headgate/simple chute (or other way to catch/treat/preg check etc)? We just started a few years ago and sprung for a basic Preifert right away. It was hard to justify in terms of hard dollars, but we probably would not been able to "stay in" without it (nor would we have had a vet or AI tech willing to come out). I've met a few people lately who have no way to catch or treat their cows, and it doth puzzle me...different strokes I guess...