Preconditioned steers forecast

Help Support CattleToday:

lmp570

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2007
Messages
65
Reaction score
0
Location
Western Kentucky
ive seen SEVERAL articles and heard on tv programs that this is not the year to skip on the pre-con. at our operation this year we had decided to skip the pre-con due to feed costs and running tight on space, and just wean on the ride to the sale barn. BUT ive seen forecasts that say 500lb. steers will be selling for $1.20+/- while 900lb. PRECONDITIONED steers will be selling at the same price per pound! wow. if thats the case you would be crazy not to pre-condition steers.

im not a veteran but it seems to me like ppl are just blowing smoke. what do u guys and gals think?


2 Timothy 2:3
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2006
Messages
14,984
Reaction score
27
Location
Texas
Last July I watched a few thousand 8 and 9 weights go for over $1.10 and 3 and 4 weights were going for $.90. It was upside down from everything I have always known. Corn prices surely had a lot to do with it.

I took home several lightweight heifers with ear. My figuring was heifers were not a one way street. I had grass. I had hay. If the prices went down the tank, I could turn them to cows. I had to put a little creep in them to keep them from being doggies - not much, just enough. A year later 3 are on the cull list. They are bred to a brangus bull that throws light calves.
 

kenny thomas

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 16, 2008
Messages
11,032
Reaction score
1,025
Location
SW tip of Virginia
First I think you would do great if you can get $1.20 for 5wts, but 900lb ain't going to sell for that anytime soon, probably not for years if ever. This week .86 was the bid.

edit; looking at another post, grass feed them and they might be worth it. :lol:
 
OP
L

lmp570

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2007
Messages
65
Reaction score
0
Location
Western Kentucky
kenny thomas":2ac22cqt said:
First I think you would do great if you can get $1.20 for 5wts, but 900lb ain't going to sell for that anytime soon, probably not for years if ever. This week .86 was the bid.

edit; looking at another post, grass feed them and they might be worth it. :lol:

i absolutly agree with u kenny, but thats why i said this was the forecast and not the current trend. typically i stay in the 6w range and i have yet to sell a steer at that weight for over $1.15.

if 6wts could get to 1.20 id be thrilled. let alone 9 or 1000's.
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2006
Messages
14,984
Reaction score
27
Location
Texas
lmp570":2x5zu53r said:
kenny thomas":2x5zu53r said:
First I think you would do great if you can get $1.20 for 5wts, but 900lb ain't going to sell for that anytime soon, probably not for years if ever. This week .86 was the bid.

edit; looking at another post, grass feed them and they might be worth it. :lol:

i absolutly agree with u kenny, but thats why i said this was the forecast and not the current trend. typically i stay in the 6w range and i have yet to sell a steer at that weight for over $1.15.

if 6wts could get to 1.20 id be thrilled. let alone 9 or 1000's.

Exactly. Which is why I was so shocked last July to see what I saw.
 

xbred

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 19, 2007
Messages
640
Reaction score
0
Location
southwest mississippi
this week i sold several 750 lb. 45 day weaned char x steers with 2 rounds of good vaccine for $10.00 per hundered wt. more than 600 lb. fresh angus calves. it made a believer out of my neighbor...he'll be pre-conning next season...
 

denoginnizer

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 10, 2005
Messages
1,239
Reaction score
0
Location
Alabama
Around here a 700 pound pre-con steer will sell for about 4.5 cents per pound higher. If you loose some or if they get sick during weaning could go backwards fast. I think alot of people just look at the pay check and not the cost that it takes to get it.
 

mitch2

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 21, 2007
Messages
487
Reaction score
0
Location
WI
I will say that at any point any animal can get sick. But, based on our own experiences, (*knocking on wood*), when we keep our own animals through weaning til whenever, I have hard time remembering one getting sick, let alone having to treat a bunch. When we have purchased "weaned", and I use this term loosely buying from the auction houses, I have a hard time remembering when the majority didn't get sick.

Also, remember, we run a VERY small operation.

Michele
 

Howdyjabo

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2004
Messages
2,062
Reaction score
0
Location
NC
The 9 wts going so high is a fluke that won't last more than a few more months-- feedlots could hedge a profit so that bought them. That hedge advantage is over soon.
 

MoGal

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 21, 2005
Messages
808
Reaction score
0
Location
Southeast MO
According to an article by Ron Plain, Extension Economist UMC in the August "The Midwest Cattleman", he says, " that cattle future contracts are predicting slaughter steer prices in the high $80's per cwt for the fourth qtr of 2009 and 1st qtr of 2010. This is better than the $83/cwt that fed cattle averaged in the first half of 2009, but it is not likely to be enough to stop herd reduction."
He also said, "A dime decrease in the price of a bushel of corn increases the value of feeder cattle by $6 per head."
Now whether he's correct or not, I don't know....
------------------------------
It would be nice if steer prices would go up as long as the price of everything else didn't go up. I'm not trying to make this into a political thread but I've been thinking about this ever since you first posted it. The only way I can see the prices going up is if the american farmers/producers start pressuring their congressional leaders into limiting beef imports (in 2007 we imported 3 lbs of beef for every 1 lb exported) OR our currency is reduced to "junk" status (which would be hyperinflation for everyone here in the US).
We have 1 out of every 9 Americans on food stamps so I doubt they will buy $4 lb hamburger and if Congress doesn't pass another unemployment extension in December then 1.5 million people will stop receiving unemployment compensation. Next month seasonal workers will become unemployed.... I just don't see a rosy picture coming up..... not to mention internet rumblings of "bank holidays" coming up between now and the end of the year. The only reason I mention this is because people are going to be more selective on their purchases and it only stands to reason they aren't going to pay $15-$20 for a roast or $4 lb for hamburger and those are the prices they will see in the grocery store.

My bro-in-law told me last week that it was on the news (and I've not researched this so I'm not sure) that China is refusing/reducing US beef (and I didn't think we imported that much beef to them in the first place) because we won't take their chicken.

If it were me, I'd be very careful about preconditioning them on grain from 600 lbs to get them to 900 lbs (if you have enough grass that's a different matter).
 

Stocker Steve

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2005
Messages
10,893
Reaction score
371
Location
Central Minnesota
denoginnizer":29db8vuj said:
Around here a 700 pound pre-con steer will sell for about 4.5 cents per pound higher. If you loose some or if they get sick during weaning could go backwards fast. I think a lot of people just look at the pay check and not the cost that it takes to get it.

Good post. Pre con is very expensive unless you know how to get a good ADG.
I think the pre con price premium in our area depends a lot on what and how many you are selling. There should be a premium on a pot belly of fancy pre con calves.
There will be little or no premium on a small group that is colored. They usually get lumped in with some other cheaper calves and they all re re vaccinated...
 

dun

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 28, 2003
Messages
47,334
Reaction score
2
Location
MO Ozarks
Stocker Steve":1xl0w8q3 said:
denoginnizer":1xl0w8q3 said:
Around here a 700 pound pre-con steer will sell for about 4.5 cents per pound higher. If you loose some or if they get sick during weaning could go backwards fast. I think a lot of people just look at the pay check and not the cost that it takes to get it.

Good post. Pre con is very expensive unless you know how to get a good ADG.
I think the pre con price premium in our area depends a lot on what and how many you are selling. There should be a premium on a pot belly of fancy pre con calves.
There will be little or no premium on a small group that is colored. They usually get lumped in with some other cheaper calves and they all re re vaccinated...
Proconditioning is best done when potloads of uniform weight/gender/age calves can be marketed. Small lots may bring an extra buck or 2 but potloads will bring more like 4-5 bucks
 

SRBeef

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2007
Messages
2,931
Reaction score
1
Location
SW Wisconsin
Maybe I misunderstand somewhere, but isn't "pre-conditioning" more a matter of weaning (for at least 45 days), castrated and healed and all shots up to date then a matter of feeding grain?

There is a Certified Hereford Beef (CHB) "Preconditioned" calf sale in December that I received a flyer on recently and have been considering selling a few calves at as an experiment. Some folks in WI are pooling to come up with a potload(s).

The required "preconditioning" is just as above: weaned 45 days or more, bunk broke, castrated/healed and all shots. No mentioning nor requirenment of grain, other than "bunk broke" which mine are with their gentling grain once a week or so.

The logic here is that if preconditioning saves the buyer from losing even one of a potload, or reduces the stress weight loss by weaning or shots keep from getting sick, then Preconditioning warrants a significantly higher price than calves taken from mama and put on the trailer, maybe uncastrated, passing and picking up various illnesses....

I think these will be just 45 days past weaning or about 700-800 lb range. It will be interesting to see what price they bring. Fenceline weaned in mid Oct, fall booster shots in Oct. Most cut in May and long since healed.

Mine will get whatever best pasture I have left in Nov and/or the best hay, no grain and no purchased grain expense to offset any price advantage. It would be interesting to see if we can get into the 1.10 or 1.20 range for some very good near 800 lb preconditioned CHB steers.

Jim
 

denoginnizer

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 10, 2005
Messages
1,239
Reaction score
0
Location
Alabama
dun":2m9nxicy said:
Stocker Steve":2m9nxicy said:
denoginnizer":2m9nxicy said:
Around here a 700 pound pre-con steer will sell for about 4.5 cents per pound higher. If you loose some or if they get sick during weaning could go backwards fast. I think a lot of people just look at the pay check and not the cost that it takes to get it.

Good post. Pre con is very expensive unless you know how to get a good ADG.
I think the pre con price premium in our area depends a lot on what and how many you are selling. There should be a premium on a pot belly of fancy pre con calves.
There will be little or no premium on a small group that is colored. They usually get lumped in with some other cheaper calves and they all re re vaccinated...
Proconditioning is best done when potloads of uniform weight/gender/age calves can be marketed. Small lots may bring an extra buck or 2 but potloads will bring more like 4-5 bucks

That 4.5 cent per pound difference is on semi truck loads. In my area non-weaned load lots are running on average 4.5 cents per pound less than weaned load lots of similar weight and quality . The people that are weaning here say that the profit is on the extra gain the calves put on during weaning and not so much the little extra the buyers are willing to pay. I could not see enough if any extra profit so I sold mine straight of the cow.
 
OP
L

lmp570

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2007
Messages
65
Reaction score
0
Location
Western Kentucky
so if it is not benefical to spend the time and money on pre-con unless you have several head to take off... are you saying that i wont see the profit im looking for by just taking off our 9 bulls?
 

dun

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 28, 2003
Messages
47,334
Reaction score
2
Location
MO Ozarks
lmp570":1hl77icw said:
so if it is not benefical to spend the time and money on pre-con unless you have several head to take off... are you saying that i wont see the profit im looking for by just taking off our 9 bulls?
Only half or a little then if you had a potload. But the way the market is, even a buck a cwt is a good thing. You'll just have to work harder for that dollar.
 

kenny thomas

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 16, 2008
Messages
11,032
Reaction score
1,025
Location
SW tip of Virginia
SRBeef, I hope you get it but if you get 1.10-1.20 for 800lb CHB calves I want to hire you to sell my calves. Good job done by someone if it happens.
 

SRBeef

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2007
Messages
2,931
Reaction score
1
Location
SW Wisconsin
kenny thomas":1fwl7r9l said:
SRBeef, I hope you get it but if you get 1.10-1.20 for 800lb CHB calves I want to hire you to sell my calves. Good job done by someone if it happens.

I don't know what these will bring in Dec. I'm just looking at taking part in this Hereford preconditioned sale as an experiment to see if there is another way of getting a decent price for some quality calves.

It seems like healthy, weaned, calmer, sturdy calves that are likely to take off quickly at a feedlot and have little or no death losses should be worth a bit more.

I have nothing to do with the sale, just a flyer I received. We'll see.

Jim
 
Top