POLL: Beef cowherd expansion/contraction outlook.

[Aaron]

HDRider's thread on beef herd growth got me thinking about how members on here see their beef cow numbers in their own herds, in 10 years time. I have a hunch and want to see if I am right.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

If I had known there was going to be a test I would have studied harder over Thanksgiving break professor Aaron.

 

[Rafter S]

Should there be an option for "stay the same"?

 

[Aaron]

Should there be an option for "stay the same"?

I added those options now. :D

 

[Fire Sweep Ranch]

If I could find more land, I would EXPAND!!! lol

 

[AllForage]

If I could find more land, I would EXPAND!!! lol

This what I was trying to say in the other thread. We get told like worker bees to expand and where/how do they think we can afford land? Hard to compete with mega dairies who seem to have endless credit. Or the wealthy deer hunters up here. I could go on.....

 

[slick4591]

I've just been running 6 on 16 acres with another 9 acres that hasn't seen cows in a long long time. I'll be expanding as long as my market stays as good as it is.

 

[talltimber]

I've 18 mommas now and would like to be at twice that or a few more. This place has carried up to 40 for years, so I've room to grow some if I want.
I struggle with my desire to expand as quickly as possible on head count, but would rather have 25 that I think quite a bit of, than 40 of which only half are worth feeding. At my age I have realized that sometimes it's the journey and not the destination, necessarily.

 

[jasonleonard]

I am anxious to see how this poll comes out. I thought I would bump it so more would vote.

 

[torogmc81]

We are slowly expanding a little each year. Unless we acquire more land, though, we will never be at 50 or more cows. I guess leasing is a small possibility also.

 

[Fire Sweep Ranch]

If I could find more land, I would EXPAND!!! lol

This what I was trying to say in the other thread. We get told like worker bees to expand and where/how do they think we can afford land? Hard to compete with mega dairies who seem to have endless credit. Or the wealthy deer hunters up here. I could go on.....

Funny you say this. The 80 acres across the road came up for sale a few years ago. We got it all set up with the bank to buy the land, and the dairy down the road came in and offered more than the land appraised for, which is what we got the loan approval for, so we lost it. Guess what he runs on that 80 acres? Black beef cows! grrr.... just because he had more cash to put down.

 

[HDRider]

I am the one (at this point in time) that said I wanted to have more than 50 cows in ten years. I am getting closer with every passing day. The closer I get the more nervous I get. I paid for the land a few years ago. Paid for. I have a nice house on the land. It is rented out right now. I will be moving there late next year. I have worked my tail off since I was a kid. I am not a hoarder or a miser, but I have saved my nickels and have them all rolled up.

I say all that to say, I cannot imagine a young person leaving Mom & Dad, maybe going to college, or not, and starting a beef enterprise. IT TAKES A LOT OF MONEY to get started.

I think you will see herd expansion coming mostly from established ranchers, big and small. Plus, maybe this is already a force in the beef business, I don't know, but I expect to see more expansion over time where land and beef are corporate owned and managed more and more by young, smart, educated, whipper-snappers.

 

[highgrit]

I hope your wrong HDRider, on this one. Big corporate cattle operations will wipe the small Mom and Pop operations out. Hopefully my son will grow what I have started and pass it along to his kids. Anything to do with cows takes a long time.

 

[HDRider]

I hope your wrong HDRider, on this one. Big corporate cattle operations will wipe the small Mom and Pop operations out. Hopefully my son will grow what I have started and pass it along to his kids. Anything to do with cows takes a long time.

I am not saying that the smaller mom & pop will go away. I am saying they will come to compete more and more with larger corporate owned beef operations.

I am no expert, by any stretch, but look at pork and poultry. The scale there is mostly corporate owned. Why would beef be different?

 

[highgrit]

It won't be HDRider, the big corporation's will spend the money to get the rules in their favor. And the little guys won't be able to afford to comply. The only thing in our favor is 18 months is a long time to see any return on your money.

 

[HDRider]

It won't be HDRider, the big corporation's will spend the money to get the rules in their favor. And the little guys won't be able to afford to comply. The only thing in our favor is 18 months is a long time to see any return on your money.

Look at meat processing as an example, or keeping your seed as examples...

I will say, having spent over 30 years working for large corporations, We considered something a success if it was cash flow positive after three years and able to sustain a 40% gross margin aiming for 15% net.

 

[ChrisB]

For big "corporations" to take over the beef cow industry they would more than likely have to do it with drylotting cows. Raising beef cows traditionally takes too much land.

If this were the case though it would be interesting to see what changes they would make to be more profitable. Breed for a high twinning percentage? Try getting calves on the ground every 10-11 months instead of 12? Larger or smaller framed? Early weaning?

Right now I think if you can control sickness and mud it would be profitable to have beef cows in a drylot. But hay and corn prices can change from year to year and with the time from breeding to weaning being so long it is kind of risky.

 

[highgrit]

All the cows would be the same color and size. And probably be fed a ration of feed by weight. Good record keeping is invaluable, for the bottom line.

 

[HDRider]

All the cows would be the same color and size. And probably be fed a ration of feed by weight. Good record keeping is invaluable, for the bottom line.

Test Tube Beef
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/30/tech/inno ... ured-meat/

 

[bigbull338]

im always in gear to expand my cow herd.going to do so by selling all my calves bulls and heifers and buying back reg cows younger than 5.