Million Dollar Question - Prices

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JMJ Farms

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I don't have a crystal ball and I don't think anyone else, unless they own a unicorn, does either. But... What's your best educated guess as to calf prices for the next 6 months to a year. A lot of variables to consider but there are a good many intelligent members and I'd like to see what the common consensus is?
 

Bright Raven

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I have been wondering on the cattle market. Lots of dynamics. Cattle numbers have peaked. Last USDA report indicated the growth in the cattle herd was over. Seems there are signs of some folks throwing in the towel. Very few are making money. Weather is causing further pressure. My guess is that the cattle herd will start to decline and demand will become a factor.

The "unknown" is what happens to foreign demand. Will we lose markets due to tariffs?
 

jltrent

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Late fall prices will go down and spring prices will be back at about what they are right now. Try to keep input cost down and hope at the end of the year you have at least an economic profit of zero. Have a good job or source of income other than farming so you can keep the hobby farming up.
 

shaz

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Domestic consumption looks ok. Chicken and pork have enough downward price pressure that will effect us as well.
Exports are up but I don't see how it can last.

Bottom line is I don't see a real bright spot anytime soon but at least it's not like 2006-2009.
 

sstterry

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Live cattle futures are trading 82.5 cents to $1.925 lower in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are down a sharp $2.825 to $3.475 at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.18 from the previous day on 8/3, reaching $149.74. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 35 cents at $206.03, while Select boxes were 90 cents higher at $199.23. Monday’s FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head. That was up 5,000 head from the previous week and 2,000 head above the same week in 2017.Aug 18 Cattle are at $109.575, down $0.825,Oct 18 Cattle are at $110.350, down $1.200,Dec 18 Cattle are at $113.750, down $1.475,Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.725, down $3.125Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.375, down $3.475Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.975, down $3.300

This is from one hour ago. I am now reconsidering the capital improvements I was thinking about :cry2:
 

Dave

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Things are decent right now. Everyone I know is operating in the black. Not getting rich but not losing. We will have the normal seasonal swings. Down in the late fall, up in the late winter/early spring. I don't think there will be big movement either way in the next year. Having quality calves and market larger uniform groups will help the bottom line.
 

1982vett

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Dave":31wissg5 said:
ddd75":31wissg5 said:
$$3.00 calves and 2800 breds here we come !!!

We could get there but I am thinking it will be another 10 years or so.
Yep. Everything else will have to quadruple before we get to double our income....
 

True Grit Farms

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ddd75":3d1u7dag said:
prediction in '15 was high dollars until '19-20
The prices are still good till 5 weights hit a dollar. Those who depend on buying hay and have to feed their cattle to hold condition are in a bind. But most of them do it for the sport anyways.
 

Lucky

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Calf prices will go up and down according to what the economy and paper traders think they should be. One thing that won’t go down is inputs. Equipment, fuel, feed, labor, or anything else will continue to rise. I built a hay barn last year and thought the price was out of sight well this year it would have been 15-20% more. I also bought a skid loader last year and the price on it has went up $2,000. Land prices keep going up which will cause lease land to go up too.
 
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