Math me, please!

[MurraysMutts]

Basics....
120 acres wheat pasture.
40 acres grass that ain't been grazed all summer.
$20k to lease thru March.

I figure I can run 250 calves on it. 3 to 4 wt calves. IF I can get em bought for $1600/hd that's 400,000. IF they'll get to 650lb and I can sell em for $2200 that's 550,000. That pays the lease, doctoring, hay etc. 10% death loss would be catastrophic. That's a 55,000 dollar hit.

My question is..... CAN THIS WORK?

 

[coachg]

3-6 months ago I would say yes . But with the market taking a little dip it my cutting it close .

 

[kenny thomas]

Run that through the LRP calculator and see. Only safe way.

 

[Travlr]

Basics....
120 acres wheat pasture.
40 acres grass that ain't been grazed all summer.
$20k to lease thru March.

I figure I can run 250 calves on it. 3 to 4 wt calves. IF I can get em bought for $1600/hd that's 400,000. IF they'll get to 650lb and I can sell em for $2200 that's 550,000. That pays the lease, doctoring, hay etc. 10% death loss would be catastrophic. That's a 55,000 dollar hit.

My question is..... CAN THIS WORK?

$375 an acre per year? And only available for 4 months? With all the other variables? You never mentioned the interest you'd be paying on the calves...

 

[Warren Allison]

400,000 calves + $20k lease, is 420k cost. IF they grow to 650 lbs, and if they bring $3.38/lb, ($550k) you stand to make $130k in 4 months. But you need to figure in your time, and meds, etc. and did you figure in salt, mineral, or any other supplements? Fuel, fencing repairs, etc,? If they bring what you want, and none die, you ought to come out alright.

 

[Brute 23]

I don't know enough about that to comment but I will throw some thing else out there as another option. From what I hear, wintering other people's cattle can be pretty lucrative and does not carry the risk.

Another thing to consider would be to take on an experienced partner. If it's a good deal, it shouldn't be hard to find one.

 

[MurraysMutts]

Run that through the LRP calculator and see. Only safe way.

Thanks for that Kenny. I'll have to check into it.

$375 an acre per year? And only available for 4 months? With all the other variables? You never mentioned the interest you'd be paying on the calves...

Very good point! That's why I started this thread. I'm far from having any clue about this. This would be a huge step for me IF I can swing it. It's wheat pasture. It sounded absolutely ridiculous to me the first time I heard it, until I started putting some numbers to it. He used to lease the pasture on the gain. That is, what the calves gain, he got so much dollars per pound. The number escapes me. But he got tired of people buying the crappiest calves they could find and them not gaining like good calves would. So now he just does a set 20k and run as many as ya want.

I don't know enough about that to comment but I will throw some thing else out there as another option. From what I hear, wintering other people's cattle can be pretty lucrative and does not carry the risk.

Another thing to consider would be to take on an experienced partner. If it's a good deal, it shouldn't be hard to find one.

Partner is already in, just gotta figure this all out before we pull the trigger. The interest on the money conveniently escaped my mind. I knew this would be a good sounding board!

 

[gcreekrch]

The worst ship to sail is a partnership. See what kind of contracts are out there for 650 lb feeder cattle and then buy accordingly. No brainer to me but I’m short brains anyway.

 

[mwj]

There is a reason that this land is available. Sounds like someone with experiencing is backing away from that big ''fixed'' paymeent. If it was not rented quickly there is a reason. It could be a nice check or cripple your chances for a long time if it goes bad.

 

[jltrent]

No pain no gain. The people I know who have made money took risks. Unless the market takes a nosedive, I could see you coming out good. I see 250 calves are not a terrible big bunch. Getting them, getting past the sickness and settled in, it ought to be pretty smooth with your pasture with good fencing.

 

[MurraysMutts]

The worst ship to sail is a partnership. See what kind of contracts are out there for 650 lb feeder cattle and then buy accordingly. No brainer to me but I’m short brains anyway.

Do you think good calves would go from heavy 3 wts to 650 by March 15th on wheat pasture and hay? It's all a bit new to me. I've always just raise calves on cows. I've been happy with 5wt calves off the cow.

There is a reason that this land is available. Sounds like someone with experiencing is backing away from that big ''fixed'' paymeent. If it was not rented quickly there is a reason. It could be a nice check or cripple your chances for a long time if it goes bad.

Kind of a unique situation. He used to run cow calf and sold out. He stays so busy farming, cutting hay, and real estate he don't even own a single cow any more. But I agree. If he advertised, I would think it would rent quickly.

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

For me it would hinge on what the LRP value for your target delivery date is. That would allow you to at least cover your butt should the market do something crazy.

 

[Dave]

250 pounds in 120 days? A little over 2 pounds a day in the winter

 

[Travlr]

Do you think good calves would go from heavy 3 wts to 650 by March 15th on wheat pasture and hay? It's all a bit new to me. I've always just raise calves on cows. I've been happy with 5wt calves off the cow.

Kind of a unique situation. He used to run cow calf and sold out. He stays so busy farming, cutting hay, and real estate he don't even own a single cow any more. But I agree. If he advertised, I would think it would rent quickly.

2 pounds a day on calves that were weaned too early or never grew well to begin with.

Look, I'm probably not the guy to ask (or answer) because I've just never found a way to make backgrounding calves pencil out to begin with.

 

[WFfarm]

What's the normal stocking rate on winter wheat for a 300 lb calf? Does that go down a lot when they get closer to 600 lbs? We don't have any wheat grazing in out part of the country. Just curious if they do rotational grazing too?

 

[MurraysMutts]

@Travlr
@Dave
@WFfarm

These are things I'm trying to figure out as well. 2 calves per acre on wheat? I was hoping some folks run em that way and had some input. I really don't know! 2lbs a day would be good gain I would think. Better to buy 4wt calves I'd think. If I could get em bought right. Prices seem to be down just slightly but idk that I could get em bought for what I want to spend.

 

[Travlr]

@Travlr
@Dave
@WFfarm

These are things I'm trying to figure out as well. 2 calves per acre on wheat? I was hoping some folks run em that way and had some input. I really don't know! 2lbs a day would be good gain I would think. Better to buy 4wt calves I'd think. If I could get em bought right. Prices seem to be down just slightly but idk that I could get em bought for what I want to spend.

The wheat isn't growing... it's dormant. It won't start growing until the weather warms up. Two calves per acre for four months, in winter??? Are you going to feed hay?

 

[MurraysMutts]

The wheat isn't growing... it's dormant. It won't start growing until the weather warms up. Two calves per acre for four months, in winter??? Are you going to feed hay?

O its still growing here! Admittedly this pasture isn't as nice as I've seen around here tho. Yes. Hay will be available

 

[Allenw]

Five and six weights will do good on wheat. Usually figured at around two acres per calf if I remember right without supplementing. Your going to have to plan for bad weather and hope for good.

 

[wbvs58]

Five and six weights will do good on wheat. Usually figured at around two acres per calf if I remember right without supplementing. Your going to have to plan for bad weather and hope for good.

I'm generally a risk taker but this sounds like too many things that could go wrong and a lot at stake to me.
Best of luck Murray if you do go ahead with it.

Ken