Lowest US cow/heifer inventory since 1941.
Why???
Liz
Why???
Liz
http://beefmagazine.com/cow-calf/beef-c ... -least-now
Lowest US cow/heifer inventory since 1941.
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In looking at those numbers, one thing/question that comes to my mind is:
Are dairy cattle included in those numbers as dairy cattle have become a duel purpose producer of both milk and beef?
As for " expenses " I do believe that plays a very big part in it.
IMO, anyone wanting to get in the cattle business and starting from scratch, with a 50 head herd, will have to invest at least $600,000 for land cost alone in my area.
And another $150,000 for cattle, fencing and proper equipment to handle cattle etc, not including hay fields or hay equipment.
And that's a big nut to crack for a low profit risky small business.
That is one of the reasons I think there are few new comers getting into the business and fewer cows/heifers are being produced.
Simply put-- fewer cattlemen produce fewer cattle.
Liz
Are dairy cattle included in those numbers as dairy cattle have become a duel purpose producer of both milk and beef?
As for " expenses " I do believe that plays a very big part in it.
IMO, anyone wanting to get in the cattle business and starting from scratch, with a 50 head herd, will have to invest at least $600,000 for land cost alone in my area.
And another $150,000 for cattle, fencing and proper equipment to handle cattle etc, not including hay fields or hay equipment.
And that's a big nut to crack for a low profit risky small business.
That is one of the reasons I think there are few new comers getting into the business and fewer cows/heifers are being produced.
Simply put-- fewer cattlemen produce fewer cattle.
Liz
haase
Well-known member
My guess would be not enough cow maternity wards and too much sulfur.
Rhune
Well-known member
no jobs = voluntary deportation
haase
I couldn't agree with you more.
Mortality rate has got to be part of the problem, I'm sure.
What with more and more cows showing up at the slaughterhouse and being rejected for diseased condition, cancer eye, no hoofs, downers, or all the cows that die even before they are shipped to the slaughterhouse for the same conditions, it has got to make an impact on the mortality rate.
And then there are all the cows that won't breed, all the calves that are aborted or born sick and die, all from sulfur induced PEM has got to be a significant number.
And could even be why so many cattlemen are being forced out of business.
All of which reduces US cattle inventory.
Liz
I couldn't agree with you more.
Mortality rate has got to be part of the problem, I'm sure.
What with more and more cows showing up at the slaughterhouse and being rejected for diseased condition, cancer eye, no hoofs, downers, or all the cows that die even before they are shipped to the slaughterhouse for the same conditions, it has got to make an impact on the mortality rate.
And then there are all the cows that won't breed, all the calves that are aborted or born sick and die, all from sulfur induced PEM has got to be a significant number.
And could even be why so many cattlemen are being forced out of business.
All of which reduces US cattle inventory.
Liz
Tim/South
Well-known member
I do not believe the numbers will ever completely return. Aging cattle producers got out while the getting was good. Their children have no interest or knowledge in cattle production.
I also read on a farming forum where many areas lost their grass to drought, sold their cattle cheap, did not have the capital to buy back or plant pastures. They went to corn or beans.
With the price of heifers right now the people I personally know are not retaining.
For years the price of beef has been just above break even for the cow/calf, stockers and feed lots. Things have changed. The packers and retail industry is the only place left to adapt. Their profits have been guaranteed. Not so any more.
I also read on a farming forum where many areas lost their grass to drought, sold their cattle cheap, did not have the capital to buy back or plant pastures. They went to corn or beans.
With the price of heifers right now the people I personally know are not retaining.
For years the price of beef has been just above break even for the cow/calf, stockers and feed lots. Things have changed. The packers and retail industry is the only place left to adapt. Their profits have been guaranteed. Not so any more.
salebarn junkie
Well-known member
You have to look at pounds of beef not number of head. In the 40s I can't imagine the average cow size being anywhere close to a thousand pounds
Horseandcattle
New member
The main reason numbers are down is the drought of 2012. A lot of producers sold their cattle (as did I)because hay went through the roof. We slaughtered many "COWS". For every cow slaughtered it takes roughly 3 years to replace her, if your start the clock from the time of conception. When the supply of cattle went down the demand went up. Producers are cashing in heifers along with steers because the packers are paying historic prices. Hence why replacements are so high.
Even though the cost of cattle are up, in my area of Kansas, the hay prices are bottoming out. You can buy hay cheaper than you can bale it. Good hay for 25-35 dollars.
The older cattleman in my area who where thinking about getting out of the cattle business, decided to stay in since the prices have jumped and their cows are paid off. they have no need to grow there herds because they plan on jumping out when the market swings back down. It keeps the land locked up from younger guys. There are plenty of younger people wanting in cattle. From the beginning of time the older generation has said "The kids have no interest". Where theirs money theirs interest.
The last reason is plenty of pastures are being plowed of for farms and leaving the brush and ravines for the cattle.
Even though the cost of cattle are up, in my area of Kansas, the hay prices are bottoming out. You can buy hay cheaper than you can bale it. Good hay for 25-35 dollars.
The older cattleman in my area who where thinking about getting out of the cattle business, decided to stay in since the prices have jumped and their cows are paid off. they have no need to grow there herds because they plan on jumping out when the market swings back down. It keeps the land locked up from younger guys. There are plenty of younger people wanting in cattle. From the beginning of time the older generation has said "The kids have no interest". Where theirs money theirs interest.
The last reason is plenty of pastures are being plowed of for farms and leaving the brush and ravines for the cattle.
Backbone Ranch
Well-known member
The persistent droughts through the years, especially in 2011, have caused a lot of people who were slightly overstocked or at their carrying capacity to reduce their herd and or liquidate. I don't think that there is one particular reason, just a combination of factors that have caused the reduction in the US cattle inventory.
Tim/South
Well-known member
I can not imagine anyone going into the cattle business right now. Maybe if they already had the land, fencing, grass and rich parents. Even then it does not pencil out to suggest paying $2,500 for a heavy bred or pair.
Land prices are high. Cattle prices are high. I do not see any way a young person could borrow the money to get started right now.
All of us have had lean years when we did not show much profit. Those who were able to survive the hard times, paid their dues, are doing well right now.
Land prices are high. Cattle prices are high. I do not see any way a young person could borrow the money to get started right now.
All of us have had lean years when we did not show much profit. Those who were able to survive the hard times, paid their dues, are doing well right now.
MO_cows
Well-known member
That statistic isn't as shocking as it seems. We get a lot more beef per carcass than we did in 1941. And we eat less beef per capita than back then, too.
All those cows who could still produce, but went to slaughter from the drought, put beef into the supply pipeline and postponed feeling the full effect of the drought.
All those cows who could still produce, but went to slaughter from the drought, put beef into the supply pipeline and postponed feeling the full effect of the drought.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
MO_cows":1l51uvch said:
Lot of cattle producing states were hit and hit hard by the drought. Can't forget about that freak blizzard that took out herds as well.
I don't know the numbers for the other states they figure in Texas 70% of the cattle herd was sold to slaughter.
I sold 70% of mine and I know a lot that got out and stayed out.
The next year when it had got to Mo. thousands of cows went through our salebarn here to slaughter, it paid to truck them down here.
Another factor as well today's cows produce more beef than 50 years ago, 10 today produce what 15 did then.
We have came a long with improved genetics over the last fifty years.
We've got one butcher shop here in town, so my observation isn't much to base an opinion on. I have noticed when I'm in there, that not many young people are buying steaks and roast. They may be buying it by the sack full at the grocery store, but I never go there. Based on what I see of their buying choices we may be phasing out beef eaters over the next few years. As foreign economies grow, and we fall steadily behind, that market may get stronger. IDK.
