livestock numbers down

[hurleyjd]

All local livestock auctions show very low livestock count look like there may not be enough to support four sales a week in this area. Also the manager of the local farmers co-op told me that their feed sales are at a record low compared to the last five years.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Are they out on pasture?

 

[hurleyjd]

Are they out on pasture?

Not much pasture available and has not been for the last 10 months or so. A lot of older producers and most younger ones are maxed out on credit. Also Steve look at the statement of the manager of the co-op. The loss of income in the agricultural areas affects all other businesses that depend on it. In my area at one time there were hundreds of small family dairies and a lot of dollars moving around in the community. Now there are only a few of the largest dairies still around. Same thing with livestock operations. Hardly any produce farmers around any more such as watermelons and sweet potatoes.

 

[Stocker Steve]

So is the land going back to raising quail and deer?

 

[kenny thomas]

Different area than TX but here anything not grazed is going back to trees. Mother nature is taking over. Many people my age have no one to leave it to that will farm or raise cows. But very little tillable land anyway. We're about 67% woodland.

 

[Stocker Steve]

One of the farming futurists was quoted recently on "Too Much Corn". Basically that production is going up OUS, where there are areas that can raise it for less than the US, and so our marginal areas need to produce something else after the Trump checks stop. Don't think we need that much hemp. :cowboy:

 

[TCRanch]

Numbers are down here but a lot of that has to do with horrible weather.

 

[hurleyjd]

So is the land going back to raising quail and deer?

Hogs and deer. And city people knocking golf balls every where. I pick up golf balls all the time in the meadow.

 

[greybeard]

A lot of it is going to raising goats and Mexicans around here...and a few pet horses.

 

[hurleyjd]

Sulphur Springs livestock sale report 2/3/2020.
https://www.sslivestockauctions.com/market.html

Winnsboro Texas Market report 31/1/2020.

http://winnsborolivestock.com/market_reports

 

[Aaron]

All local livestock auctions show very low livestock count look like there may not be enough to support four sales a week in this area. Also the manager of the local farmers co-op told me that their feed sales are at a record low compared to the last five years.

Producers are tightening belts everywhere. Major farm equipment manufacturers in this country are in trouble and one is in bankruptcy. Fertilizer, seed and chemical isn't being preordered. Can hear a pin drop in most dealerships. The gravy train is over for the farm suppliers. Available spots for auctions this spring and summer are largely filled up in the West.

I would say if any area can have four livestock sales a week, they are doing pretty good. Lots up here have a hard time doing 2 per week.

Times they are a changing.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Bred sales have strengthened greatly here. Order buyers are getting almost all of the cows. I think they are going SW to the monsoon regions, that may not have had enough hay and optimism to buy replacements last fall.

I am seeing a few producers selling breds and get into back grounding calves or feeding cull cows. Feels like a short term deal. They will make good $$$ this year if they had had the balls to load up in September or early October and have some corn silage.

The Trump checks are propping up some US producers, and propping up some US land prices, but that can not continue for long. I think the general CRP signup is the next big thing for producers. These additional CRP acres will also prop up land prices but not help farm suppliers.

I am still working through my 2018 numbers. So far weaning weights (washy grass) are down, cattle prices are down, and repair costs are up. I don't believe in selling hay but it is tempting.

 

[Bigfoot]

I wonder if more producers aren't going down avenues like Superior?

 

[Stocker Steve]

I wonder if more producers aren't going down avenues like Superior?

Not here since most don't have the numbers. Some are also afraid of peer pressure. Some also don't want to make a profit.

I sold a pot load thru them about 8 years ago. Long story, but the next time I walked into an Auction Barn the auctioneer stopped the sale :shock: to give me **** over the PA system. Later I used that for leverage to negotiate a lower sales barn commission.

 

[bird dog]

After years of hearing how to pre-condition calves, some operators have started doing so. Now they want to get paid for it and going to the local sale barn won't get it done unless its a special sale. Many of the barns are starting to suffer. Commissions and other tacked on expenses are to high, buyers are to picky, nothing gets announced on your calves, its just run them through as fast as possible. Twenty sale barns in this area will run 10,000 head a week average selling one at a time. The two big yards in OKC will run 15000 to 20000 between them selling groups. Its easy to see why they are gaining in popularity once you visit or sale your animals at one.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Seems like we used to worry about dry spells, but now we worry about cool wet spells. Something changed in the upper Midwest.

I understand that you can take prevent plant two years in a row on the same piece of ground. So 2021 may be a decision year for some US crop producers. Double down on drain tile or convert to no till or ?

A couple compounding effects here are less hay ground and fewer family livestock operations. You can not expect to chop and feed wet or immature crops. Did Canada get on the grain gravy train too, or have they maintained enough livestock to be diversified and flexible?

 

[Aaron]

Producers are tightening belts everywhere. Major farm equipment manufacturers in this country are in trouble and one is in bankruptcy. Fertilizer, seed and chemical isn't being preordered. Can hear a pin drop in most dealerships. The gravy train is over for the farm suppliers. Available spots for auctions this spring and summer are largely filled up in the West.

Times they are a changing.

Seems like we used to worry about dry spells, but now we worry about cool wet spells. Something changed in the upper Midwest.

I understand that you can take prevent plant two years in a row on the same piece of ground. So 2021 may be a decision year for some US crop producers. Double down on drain tile or convert to no till or ?

A couple compounding effects here are less hay ground and less livestock. You can not expect to chop and feed wet or immature crops. Did Canada get on the grain gravy train too, or have they maintained enough livestock to be diversified and flexible?

Upper Midwest just settled into the lake weather. Always worry about too much water here. Drought is a blessing. 1930's, 60's and a few of the last 20 years have all been record setting wet here.

Livestock numbers have maintained relatively well here and in the West. The cow numbers have collapsed by about 1/2 in southern Ontario in last 10 years with guys retiring and young guys can't compete with real estate investors or grain farmers.