Is the drought shrinking the nations herd yet and if so to what extent?

[mncowboy]

Just looking at the drought monitor and was wondering how long until you see herds start to liquidate faster than normal (like 2012)? I imagine when it starts it'll flood the market with cheap beef but in the longer term, maybe there will be a stronger upswing in the feeder market and bred market?

 

[shaz]

Looks like this is the first year of lower cattle numbers in a while. Is it drought or just a bad economic situation in general?

 

[Bigfoot]

It may shrink, but consumption may shrink as well, as gas prices rise. I realize not all families watch every penny, but some do. When income is stagnate, and something goes up, something has to go.

 

[Lee VanRoss]

My dad told me, "If you want to be rich just know the price of cattle tomorrow."

 

[Stocker Steve]

Just looking at the drought monitor and was wondering how long until you see herds start to liquidate faster than normal (like 2012)?

Peel wrote the last report I saw. Dairy cow numbers are up and plains beef cow numbers are up - - to mostly offset cow reductions in the SW. So no meat production reduction is in sight... This is a looong cattle cycle.

Optimists think the restaurants will be full soon and everyone is going to eat steak the second half of this year.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Peel wrote the last report I saw. Dairy cow numbers are up and plains beef cow numbers are up - - to mostly offset cow reductions in the SW. So no meaningful meat production reduction is in sight... This is a looong cattle cycle.

Optimists think the restaurants will be full soon and everyone is going to eat steak the second half of this year.

 

[mncowboy]

Dry conditions got worse in many top corn growing states

Dry conditions got worse in some areas as farmers look to start the corn and soybean planting season, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor released March 11.

www.agriculture.com

I imagine this has the potential to beat up feeder prices and/or pull them higher with the grains if consumption maintains.

 

[Muletrack]

Who recalls that just a year ago we were so stinkin' wet we couldn't stand it. I don't think you can call one dry year a drought. But drought is a normal thing, and we are wise to plan for it. Was thinking of buying some cows next week, but maybe I'll just buy as many as planned in case hay and pasture is short. We normally get 14-20 inches of precip a year. Those are good years here, but a lot of places would call that drought (others would call it a flood).

 

[kenny thomas]

Who recalls that just a year ago we were so stinkin' wet we couldn't stand it. I don't think you can call one dry year a drought. But drought is a normal thing, and we are wise to plan for it. Was thinking of buying some cows next week, but maybe I'll just buy as many as planned in case hay and pasture is short. We normally get 14-20 inches of precip a year. Those are good years here, but a lot of places would call that drought (others would call it a flood).

That would definitely be a bad drought for here. We were over 60" last year. At 11" already this year.

 

[RDFF]

Trying to outguess the market, and then vary your numbers because of that guess is like trying to push a wet noodle. The harder you try, the more twists it takes. Seems to me that cattle are a long term thing... you're either in it, or not. You might find that C/c is better for your "context", or you might find that backgrounding or running a feedlot is more for your context........ but either way, it generally won't work if you're only going to try to "be in 'em" and have animals around "when the price is high".

 

[Stocker Steve]

We normally get 14-20 inches of precip a year. Those are good years here, but a lot of places would call that drought (others would call it a flood).

A western grazing guru explained to me that average does not occur often there - - they have wet cycles and dry cycles which math can use for calculating an average, but you should not use it for planning.

 

[Stocker Steve]

You might find that C/c is better for your "context", or you might find that backgrounding or running a feedlot is more for your context........ but either way, it generally won't work if you're only going to try to "be in 'em" and have animals around "when the price is high".

True for most, not for all. I think knowing your gross margins to rebalance enterprizes is a good idea.
I think Dave is doing OK moving between replacement heifers and one & dones.
I think 2019 and 2020 were years to retain a few more heifer calves. Harlan is not so sure.
I think 2021 and 2022 will be years to grow a bit less hay.

 

[1982vett]

A year later...and it's still Winter, Summer isn't even here yet

 

[Dave]

Both of those maps show me being abnormally dry. We only get 10 inches on average so we are always abnormally dry. Reality is that timing is more important than total inches. Last year we were dry but the rain we got came just at the right time. 30 miles east the rain was too late. Their grass had already dried up for the year and the rain didn't bring it back. This year there is a lot of snow in the hills. Plenty of water for the irrigated fields. And if the snow melts slowly and soaks in there will be good grass on the range land.

 

[alacowman1]

That would definitely be a bad drought for here. We were over 60" last year. At 11" already this year.

I poured out 6 inches of drought from my gauge this morning.3 days worth.

 

[1982vett]

Both of those maps show me being abnormally dry. We only get 10 inches on average so we are always abnormally dry. Reality is that timing is more important than total inches. Last year we were dry but the rain we got came just at the right time. 30 miles east the rain was too late. Their grass had already dried up for the year and the rain didn't bring it back. This year there is a lot of snow in the hills. Plenty of water for the irrigated fields. And if the snow melts slowly and soaks in there will be good grass on the range land.

I agree, timing is everything. The 24inches out of 36-38 we should have gotten last year was fairly well utilized. Had 16 inches by the end of June, half an inch in July, 3/10ths in August and 3 inches in September. 1/10th in October, 7/10ths in November and the rest in December. It helped that we rode the Summer out cooler than usual. Being 45% stocked took care of the rest.

 

[Dave]

True for most, not for all. I think knowing your gross margins to rebalance enterprizes is a good idea.
I think Dave is doing OK moving between replacement heifers and one & dones.
I think 2019 and 2020 were years to retain a few more heifer calves. Harlan is not so sure.
I think 2021 and 2022 will be years to grow a bit less hay.

You missed the stocker heifers that got bought Oct '19 and contracted for August '20 delivery. I actually did better financially on those last year than on the old cows. But this last fall they were not under priced. Late winter there was a day that I could have filled a pen with green under priced light heifers but I was pretty deeply committed on the old cows and not fast enough on the trigger.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Traders make money. Cowboys not so much.

 

[Stocker Steve]

My cattle cycle predictions are:
- Da boys who don't trust bitcoin will spend the 2021 stimulus checks on their welfare cows
- Grains will rally on a May/June weather scare
- They will burn more rainforest in SA and Africa to put it into production, Roy was wrong.
- Hay prices will go up
- Cow population will finally decline in 2022 and Dave will clean up with his one and dones

 

[Dave]

My cattle cycle predictions are:
Dave will clean up with his one and dones

If Dave keeps them all alive