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farmguy

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Just stopped in local coop. Fertilizer and chemical prices more than doubled since spring. Seed up some. Some seed scarce.
 

sstterry

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Just stopped in local coop. Fertilizer and chemical prices more than doubled since spring. Seed up some. Some seed scarce.
Our fertilizer prices are up almost 40% since a year ago. Lots here are debating whether it will be cost-effective to spread this spring. I have heard stories of some stockpiling hay (if they have the indoor facilities to store it) because the general thought is that it will be in short supply next winter.
 

jltrent

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This will thin the herd, including farmers. Food prices will continue to climb. How did things get so out of whack in such a short time?
 
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Ebenezer

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That is THE question
Covid and the pandemonium have been a player. The change of administration has likely been a bigger player. The efforts to level the world marketing of products left a lot of countries sore that they got called out. With a slack leadership, that has been reversed and without any real ability in the US to counter the problem. I think folks have been paid off but I'm sure that many do not see it. Busloads of fired politicians and crooked employees leaving DC and headed to California, like the ol' dust bowl days, would be a welcomed sight.

Off the subject, I saw where monkeys in India are killing hundreds of dogs because dogs killed a baby monkey the other week. MLM. Are monkeys acting like people or do people act like monkeys? :unsure:
 

jltrent

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Eb those monkeys are smarter than you think. I see humanoids, if things continue, to start being in survival mode. We maybe eating dogs here.
 
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Stocker Steve

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This will thin the herd, including farmers. Food prices will continue to climb. How did things get so out of whack in such a short time?
1) Need cheap natural gas to make cheap N
2) Some chemical production was shut down due to corona
3) Some countries (like China) ban exports when supplies get short

So, this is part of China' master plan.
 

Stocker Steve

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Our fertilizer prices are up almost 40% since a year ago. Lots here are debating whether it will be cost-effective to spread this spring. I have heard stories of some stockpiling hay (if they have the indoor facilities to store it) because the general thought is that it will be in short supply next winter.

The interesting thing is how fertilizer efficiency varies due to weather, soil biology, and plant genetics. Improved corn grass will get prioritized in the US. Might be time to transition to organic...
 

BFE

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1) Need cheap natural gas to make cheap N
2) Some chemical production was shut down due to corona
3) Some countries (like China) ban exports when supplies get short

So, this is part of China' master plan.
Yes from what I’ve been told by my salesman a lot of the active ingredients are manufactured in china and that’s the cause of some of this shortage on herbicides specifically glyphosate. Word is they’ve shut down some coal fired power plants to clean up a little before the Olympics to look good for the world. When that’s over should be back to business as usual.
 

HDRider

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Yes from what I’ve been told by my salesman a lot of the active ingredients are manufactured in china and that’s the cause of some of this shortage on herbicides specifically glyphosate. Word is they’ve shut down some coal fired power plants to clean up a little before the Olympics to look good for the world. When that’s over should be back to business as usual.
I don't think it has all that much to do with the Olympics.

China is boosting production of urea, a raw material for and a necessity for vehicle emissions reductions, amid a global shortage, but exports to countries like Australia, which is facing a severe shortage, could be limited due to tightening domestic supplies as well as surging transport costs, industry practitioners and insiders told the Global Times on Sunday.​
Urea is widely used as nitrogen fertilizer in the agriculture industry, and it is the raw material for a wide range of chemical products such as AdBlue, or diesel exhaust fluid, which is used to reduce the nitrous oxide emissions of diesel engines under international standards.​
"There is a serious shortage of urea in Australia. So far this month, we have exported more than 10 40-foot containers of urea to Australia," a manager surnamed Li at an AdBlue producer based in South China's Guangdong Province, told the Global Times.​
Much of northeast China has been intermittently without power since Sunday as the country comes to grips with a litany of issues, ranging from depleted coal inventories to far-reaching consequences of its national energy policy. Traffic lights and medical clinics in Jilin and Liaoning provinces have been intermittently without power, according to residents' posts online.​
Although the problem is most acute in the frigid northeast, blackouts have been occurring in at least 17 provinces nationwide, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu.​
  • The number of Chinese provinces with significant power shortages fell to two in mid-October, down from 18 at the start of the month, a Commonwealth Bank of Australia report said.
  • "The number of coal power plants with dangerously low coal stockpiles (less than 7 days) has also decreased by 90% in the same time frame," the analysts said.
  • Chinese authorities have allowed more production and imports of coal, and cracked down on speculation in soaring prices.
 

Lee VanRoss

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This will thin the herd, including farmers. Food prices will continue to climb. How did things get so out of whack in such a short time?
Short Answer: The Liberals acquired the White House. The means of acquisition is an ongoing debate exacerbated by an even
more left wing press and an uninformed plebicite.
 

Ebenezer

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On the topic of shipping, urea, def fluid and dems - the regulations to allow trucks to haul has a minimum age limit on the trucks. Apparently all federally allowed trucks have to use def fluid. So the artificial limitation of usable trucks is slowing the process. You can thank Joe and his groupies. A couple of folks told me that the shortage of def fluid will add to the trucking problem. No wonder I see duallies pulling sea containers more and more.
 

Mrcopier

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Ahh this administration is sharp as a tack, not knowing the oil is used for many things other than fuels
 

Stocker Steve

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Yes from what I’ve been told by my salesman a lot of the active ingredients are manufactured in china and that’s the cause of some of this shortage on herbicides specifically glyphosate. Word is they’ve shut down some coal fired power plants to clean up a little before the Olympics to look good for the world. When that’s over should be back to business as usual.
Ya, they won't ship spray or fertilizer, but they are totally unable to stop the flow of fentanyl...
 

HDRider

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The cost of money is just one of a slew of other rising costs that farmers will confront in 2022, Semple said. In the past year, cash rents and input prices have already gone up, he said.

"It's going to cost $100 to $150 an acre more to plant an acre of corn in 2022 than it did in 2021," he said. "Farmers are paying $1,300 to $1,400 a ton for anhydrous ammonia. Seed prices are going to be up somewhere between 5% and 10% from last year. Chemical costs are going to be more expensive. If farmers are purchasing equipment, equipment prices are much higher today than they were 12 months ago."

Supplies are not the only thing going up.

"All of the inputs into a farm operation are up considerably for 2022 versus 2021, yet the 2022 income is still undetermined," Semple said.
 

wbvs58

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I can see a world wide food shortage coming up as farmers elect to grow crops with low imputs and just take the cut in yield. Graziers will just reduce the stocking rate. China, the country that is trying to manipulate the markets is the one that is going find a shortfall in what is available to buy to feed its population.

Ken
 

Caustic Burno

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Just stopped in local coop. Fertilizer and chemical prices more than doubled since spring. Seed up some. Some seed scarce.
This is real simple the three F’s feed, fuel and fertilizer set the bar.
Fertilizer is 1K a ton right now here.
That 550 bucks a year to keep a cow in the pasture price is going north fast.
With current inputs a 4wt needs to bring 3 dollars a pound or something has to disappear out of the three F’s.
 

Buck Randall

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Ya, they won't ship spray or fertilizer, but they are totally unable to stop the flow of fentanyl...
It's made pretty difficult by the fact that enough fentanyl to kill a million people could fit in your pockets. Nobody is loading shipping containers full of fentanyl.
 
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