It used to be in the 40's, 50's, 60's, 70's that teh amrket would flip-flop every 5-6 years or so with one bringing a premium of the ranch, one time, then switching.
This last "black run" began in the mid 80's, so it has been hanging on.
I'm a "red" guy myself, so have been predicting the demise of the "black" movement for about 12-15 years, but it hasn't happened yet. Some say they don't see the price break, and some years, we haven't either, as long as groups are large when sold, like a good 80 head or so, but with smaller groups, there is a break, on average, nationwide.
I don't know how much longer this "black" thing will go on, but I'm pretty sure that sometime it will become of less importance, not that it will switch to where reds bring a premium, I don't forsee that. But, it is pretty obvious to me that even though commercial men have tried it, there are just places in the USA that are too hot, and too humid for black cows to be competitive with reds in terms of breed back, thus longterm performance, ie lifetime production suffers.
mtnman