Herd Expansion

[dun]

From Drovers Alert

More signs of herd expansion
Federally inspected cattle slaughter during 2005 totaled 32.36 million head, according to University of Nebraska economist Darrell Mark. That total was steady with 2004, but the ratio of male-to-female slaughter shifted. Steer slaughter, at 17.1 million head, was up 4.7 percent from 2004, while heifer slaughter was down 4.4 percent at 9.9 million head, Mark says. Beef-cow slaughter was down by about 6.4 percent. The ratio of total female-to-steer slaughter was 86.7 percent for 2005, compared to 95.2 percent in 2004. Past data, Mark notes, show that a ratio below 90 percent indicates significant rebuilding of the cattle inventory. USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report, to be released Jan. 27, is expected to show an expanding national herd. However, the continuing drought in Texas, Oklahoma and the Southwest will play a role in determining cattle markets during 2006. Ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma, plagued by drought and range fires, are reported to be scaling back herds by culling older cows. A massive liquidation has not yet begun, but could occur if the drought continues into spring. The drought will also limit heifer-retention rates in certain states during 2006. — G.H.

 

[cypressfarms]

I will continue to expand. I really feel for our friends in the drought stricken areas, but I will be buying this year, no doubt. The price may slide some due to the influx of ranchers having to sell cattle because of the drought, but I think the prices will quickly correct themselves after that.

 

[Susie David]

I've heard various takes on the current price ride and would be open to hearing more about what folks think. With heifers being retained the way that some say they are, arn't we looking at a overload come 2007/8. Just would like some thought from the older and wiser. Wasn't chasing cows in the 70s but had friends who almost lost the ranch.
DMc

 

[SPRINGER FARMS MURRAY GRE]

I heard on the radio today that Western Arkansas has a 30" rain deficit. I feel for our brethren in Texas and Oklahoma if they are drier than that. :shock: :(

 

[Texas Ranch Man]

If you back out the first five days of January,2005 was the driest ever recorded in my part of Texas. I have sveral neighbors who openly discuss selling out their herds if we dont get some spring rain. Everyone around here is intently focused on how much Hay they have left and how long they can make it stretch. None of the Oats that were sewn came up and neither did the Rye Grass. These conditions are going to put alot of people out of the Cattle business and prices around here will fall a whole bunch when everyone floods the Sale Barns with there sell outs. So far prices have held pretty well but the number of head being moved through the Sales is steadly increasing and is way above where it is normally this time of year. I will not sell out, if I can I will add to the herd when prices fall off sharply. Pray for rain.