Having my doubts

[Dave]

The last two years I bought a pot load of heifers, bred them and sold them as bred heifers. Did good two years ago. Did fantastic last year. The problem is that this year they are costing so much to buy that I have to get last years high price just to break even and even more than last year to turn a profit. I am really debating what to do.

 

[skyhightree1]

Dave thats really risky business right there almost like that buying high and selling higher post.

 

[bigbull338]

anytime your in the cattle game its a gamble.but go ahead and gamble the worse you can do is throw snake eyes and loose your shirt.

 

[Rafter S]

I'd be nervous about trying that this year, but I'd probably have said that the last two years, so that shows how smart I am.

I can say for sure that I wouldn't try it if you're using borrowed money. I don't know if that's the case.

 

[Dave]

The problem is there is normally a 20 cent discount on cattle way out here on the coast. That normally means I can buy cheaper than the real world. I can put together a load and when they are ready to go ship them to where I get real world price. Right now there is no discount. So instead of penciling out at a profit it pencils out at break even. I hate to invest that type of money, time, and risk just to break even. It is one thing to go in figuring to make a profit and just breaking even. it is another thing going in figuring to break even and hoping for a profit and praying against a loss.

 

[Aaron]

I would avoid it. With the market the way it is, you could buy opens, breed and feed them and be glad to just break even on them, or maybe even take a small loss. She's a whole brand new year on the way.

 

[greybeard]

Well, we all knew the profit margin couldn't continue to escalate forever because at some point, the transition back to a "normal" North American herd size was going to start hurting. Hi prices are great for selling, but when it comes to herd building and new or replacement acquisitions, the double edge sword comes in to play. Last sale I went to, there were very few heifers being offered and not many cows. I guess we should just be thankfull corn prices are still pretty low, and there was plenty of hay (at least here).

 

[bigbull338]

GB by the time herd building really kicks in 1 or 2 things may happen.1 feed prices will get real high again.2 another bad drought will hit.

 

[greybeard]

I haven't seen dry ground or the sun since Christmas day...

 

[Bigfoot]

I normally avoid advice like this, but me personally, I don't think I would go that route right now.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

I sure wouldn't do it, but I also wouldn't have been doing it the last 2 years when you were making money at it. I would buy bred cows, let them calve, re breed and then split up and sell when the calves are about 6 months old.

 

[Drzr]

I sure wouldn't do it, but I also wouldn't have been doing it the last 2 years when you were making money at it. I would buy bred cows, let them calve, re breed and then split up and sell when the calves are about 6 months old.

X2

 

[Dave]

I sure wouldn't do it, but I also wouldn't have been doing it the last 2 years when you were making money at it. I would buy bred cows, let them calve, re breed and then split up and sell when the calves are about 6 months old.

X2

So after considerable figuring and thought I decide to buy cows bred for late spring calves. Ones that will calf out on pasture not the early calves that I have to fight in the mud and slop. So I go to the sale on Friday. I bid on a few heifers but they all sell too high to work. I bought the only bred cow there that would fit my May/June calving plan. Got her bought right. Went to a sale on Saturday. No bred cows to fit the new plan but I bought 3 heifers that fit the old program and got them bought for more than $300 a head less than they have been costing. So now I have no clue what the plan is...... a mixed bunch of what ever will make money?

 

[denvermartinfarms]

Mixed bunch of whatever will make money is exactly what I do.

 

[Dave]

Mixed bunch of whatever will make money is exactly what I do.

Yep, there was a few 550 pound black bull calves that I almost bought to take home and cut. They sold for 50 cents less then they would be worth as steers.

 

[BC]

Mixed bunch of whatever will make money is exactly what I do.

Yep, there was a few 550 pound black bull calves that I almost bought to take home and cut. They sold for 50 cents less then they would be worth as steers.

Shhus. Don't be telling everybody. There are folks that believe their bull calves bring just as much as if they had steered them. That is how some folks make a good living - straightening out cattle that others mismanaged.

 

[inyati13]

Dave, I bought a Bred Heifer in December under the cost share program. I turned my receipt in at the end of December to receive my cost share benefit. The UK extension agent said the receipts so far are the highest she has seen. I got a well bred PB Simmental for $3500. She said that many of the non-registered breds are averaging $3000 a head if they are state certified for the Cost Share program which means a minimum pelvic score, vaccinated, vet certification, declaration of safe in calf, etc.

I have to wonder if we are at a market high. But I am not a keen market observer.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Dave, I bought a Bred Heifer in December under the cost share program. I turned my receipt in at the end of December to receive my cost share benefit. The UK extension agent said the receipts so far are the highest she has seen. I got a well bred PB Simmental for $3500. She said that many of the non-registered breds are averaging $3000 a head if they are state certified for the Cost Share program which means a minimum pelvic score, vaccinated, vet certification, declaration of safe in calf, etc.

I have to wonder if we are at a market high. But I am not a keen market observer.

I'm not a "keen" anything but yes, this is a market high.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

Mixed bunch of whatever will make money is exactly what I do.

Yep, there was a few 550 pound black bull calves that I almost bought to take home and cut. They sold for 50 cents less then they would be worth as steers.

Shhus. Don't be telling everybody. There are folks that believe their bull calves bring just as much as if they had steered them. That is how some folks make a good living - straightening out cattle that others mismanaged.

I'm exactly that person, I make a living by correcting mis managed cattle and picking up money left on the table by others.

 

[bigbull338]

denver i know a friend that used todo the same as you for a long time.but 1 day he got to where he would do that every sale.and it finally put him under.