sstterry":2vcw03h3 said:
November 2018 Cattle on Feed Report says inventories are up 3% over 2017. It will get worse before it gets better.
Sadly, I have to basically agree. I do think we will see a bit of an uptick after the first of the year, maybe into the early spring, but not a whole lot. It looks like we will be holding alot of our calves for after the new year. Maybe sell one group of the bigger calves in about 2 weeks, but that will depend on the weather. I think there will be a little better prices for cull cows once this glut gets through the pipeline, but still not a whole lot. The fats ready to kill now aren't too bad. With more people working, and with all the job wanted signs, I am assuming that there are more people working, there is more disposable income and the prices of meat in the grocery stores sure is not going down; so I am assuming that the meat is selling. There is more and more movement through the fast food markets and the restaurants seem to be doing a good business and that is where the meat makes the money.
I think that 2019 and 202 are going to be tough for the cow/calf producer. The next big thing is where the next elections go. I am a conservative. I don't agree with everything Trump is doing. But it is pretty much fact that we do have to get more fairness in the trade arena. And it is gonna hurt until it gets evened out. The thing is, every time a Republican comes into office, the agriculture section is the one that seems to suffer the greatest for the first little bit. Then as it starts to get better, it seems that the Democrats get in and they get all the credit. Then it just goes in these cycles.
The cattle cycles have not been normal for the past 15-20 years. The horrific fires in 2017, and the droughts in certain parts hurt, and then there is this OVER ABUNDANCE of rain that we have had here this year have really made the past 2 years a challenge. After the way too high prices in 2013-2014. There will always be droughts, and there will always be areas that have too much precip, but it seems to be in ways that lately do not keep things on a cycle. A 8-12 year cycle was pretty normal, but the swings were not so volatile. Now it is anyone's guess. And being in this "world market" a disease could change it in a heartbeat.
There is a drought in parts of Europe now and they are wondering how they will feed cattle this winter. More beef is going to market there, lighter, to cut their inventories. It does trickle down to us to some extent.
Maybe this JBS mess will hurt us by people not buying or eating beef. I don't think so. They may be a big player, but it seems they are one of the worst in the game.
I am hoping we can survive this. But as we all get older, and many are in the 60+ range, it makes you wonder why you keep fighting it and think maybe just to get out and try to enjoy what years you have left. The younger ones will more likely go the route like the poultry and hogs, and do so on contract to a buyer, and then be a slave to them although there is something to be said for not having all the risk on you and having to take the swings. But, I do not want to be beholden to any big company or at their whim to decide that they are not going to take your beef in 6 months and then where do you go.
It has hit the dairy farmers that way too, with forcing so many to go out with lower milk prices except for the farms that are getting bigger and then they pay a premium if they can pick up at least a 1/2 tanker at a farm.
This will affect us all, and will also affect the genetic diversity in the long run. We will lose genetics except for a few here and there who do not produce enough to suffer from low prices because they only raise the number of cattle that they can afford to market/eat/give away and are not dependent on it for their living.
I feel for the next couple of generations.
