Genomics enhanced epds
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Son of Butch
Well-known member
Genomics work.... sort of
Article in latest Hoard's Dairyman evaluated the performance of 623 holstein sires in 2009 with genomic evaluation, but no milking daughters in 2009 to how they rated in 2018 now that they all have over 250 milking daughters.
The 31 sires ranked in the top 5% for Net Merit $ in 2009 now average top 22% of the 623 sires with 3 rated below average with the lowest one at 69 percentile. 2 sires were tied as breed leaders 1% in 2009, 1 fell to now being below top 20% but the other, Freddie, is still in the top 5% in 2019. But Razor who was at 5% in 2009 is now the breed leader top 1% in 2019.
It was expected in 2009 the "Hot" bull Freddie would have 15 sons kept for every 1 Razor son.
What happened in real life was 44 Freddie sons were kept for breeding for every 1 son of Razor.
Result inbreeding bottle neck for commercial farmers today.
IF 94% of breeders all keep a son of the same 'hot bull' = inbreeding bottleneck 10 years later.
And IF everyone continues to follow the same pattern of using the same 'hot' bull then in 40 years the breed will have some real trouble.
And the bull who was really the best of the lot in each generation will barely get used.
Seems whoever is the top genomic bull today will not be the top bull of the available group 10 years later when actual real world data is added.
Something to at least consider as a caution when using today's "Hot" low accuracy sire.
Don't put all of your eggs in the same basket that everyone else is using.
Article in latest Hoard's Dairyman evaluated the performance of 623 holstein sires in 2009 with genomic evaluation, but no milking daughters in 2009 to how they rated in 2018 now that they all have over 250 milking daughters.
The 31 sires ranked in the top 5% for Net Merit $ in 2009 now average top 22% of the 623 sires with 3 rated below average with the lowest one at 69 percentile. 2 sires were tied as breed leaders 1% in 2009, 1 fell to now being below top 20% but the other, Freddie, is still in the top 5% in 2019. But Razor who was at 5% in 2009 is now the breed leader top 1% in 2019.
It was expected in 2009 the "Hot" bull Freddie would have 15 sons kept for every 1 Razor son.
What happened in real life was 44 Freddie sons were kept for breeding for every 1 son of Razor.
Result inbreeding bottle neck for commercial farmers today.
IF 94% of breeders all keep a son of the same 'hot bull' = inbreeding bottleneck 10 years later.
And IF everyone continues to follow the same pattern of using the same 'hot' bull then in 40 years the breed will have some real trouble.
And the bull who was really the best of the lot in each generation will barely get used.
Seems whoever is the top genomic bull today will not be the top bull of the available group 10 years later when actual real world data is added.
Something to at least consider as a caution when using today's "Hot" low accuracy sire.
Don't put all of your eggs in the same basket that everyone else is using.
frieghttrain
Well-known member
Son of Butch said:
Got a really good old freddie daughter at the dairy farm. If it's the same freddie we're talking about (sired by o bee Manfred justice (O Man) and sold by Genex.
Son of Butch
Well-known member
yup, Badger-Bluff Freddie his Dec. 2018 proof .99 acc 34,050 milking dau. O-MAN x DIE-HARD
holstein population 9.3% inbreeding in common with Freddie
As someone once commented, all of today's Holstein bulls are their own uncle.
holstein population 9.3% inbreeding in common with Freddie
As someone once commented, all of today's Holstein bulls are their own uncle.
